Nearly half (16% very likely and 30% somewhat likely combined) of likely voters believe the country will have another civil war, while 42% (24% very unlikely and 18% somewhat unlikely combined) did not think we were headed for another civil war; 11% of survey respondents were not sure. It's quite astounding that nearly half of voters think we are headed for bloodshed! If we are to judge by the last four years of divide and vitriol, among, voters then maybe it's not too surprising. At the moment Republican and Democratic congressmen and congresswomen won't have offices next to each other for fear of their lives. Biden hasn't exactly made things calmer on Capital Hill. In all fairness the Capital riot was a terrible and a scary situation for those involved, but are Republicans really going to attack Democratic colleagues and vice versa?
Are we really close to citizens hurting each other on a large scale basis? The violence that happened from both sides of the political spectrum the last year is significant. Violent protests in cities across the country during the summer, white supremacists, hate crimes on the rise, and tensions between two political parties have put the country on the brink.
Still, not everyone was on board for all-out war. There were differences in opinion when it came to age-younger voters aged 18-29 (53% likely and 39% unlikely) and aged 18-24 (51% likely and 41% unlikely) were much more prone to think we were headed for civil war than older voters aged 65+ (31% likely and 55% unlikely).
For once, political parties-Republicans (49% likely and 40% unlikely), Democrats (45% likely and 44% unlikely), and Independents (42% likely and 44% unlikely) were somewhat in agreement, but the fact all political stripes think a civil war is inevitable is not the bipartisanship we were hoping for. Most of the sub-groups surveyed were in line with the overall figures, especially when it came to breakdowns of intensity-very likely/somewhat likely/somewhat unlikely/very unlikely.
Where there were major differences, were where people lived. People in large cities (55% likely and 38% unlikely) were much more likely to think the country will have another civil war than respondents living in the suburbs (36% likely and 48% unlikely).
Region was another area where there was a difference in opinion on the likelihood of another civil war. Voters in the East region (39% likely and 44% unlikely) were much less likely to think we would have another civil war compared with respondents in the Central/Great Lakes region (48% likely and 43% unlikely) and South region (49% likely and 39% unlikely).
When it came to race, whites (43% likely and 44% unlikely) were not as convinced that there will be another civil war, while Hispanics (53% likely and 43% unlikely) and African Americans (49% likely and 39% unlikely) thought another civil war could happen.
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
1/18/21 - 1/19/21
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 873 likely voters in the US.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 37% Democrat, 35% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 873 is +/- 3.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.