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The Zogby Poll®: Race tightens with third parties included; Dr. Jo Jorgensen receives 5%; Trump winning with large city and Millennial voters

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 horserace101320

Zogby Analytics will always include third parties in our polls. It's a shame when you have a respected, intelligent woman as a party nominee, and the mainstream media is pretending she doesn't exist. Now who is sexist? Don't give us that business that "voting for a third party is a vote for Trump or Biden!" So if you don't fall in line with the duopoly you don't have a voice? That's not what the founders' of our republic and constitution ever intended to happen. Everyone has a voice: Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, and Greens etc…

The race is close and is a far better representation when you include third parties, who historically receive nearly 5%, or sometimes more, in presidential elections. The contest is also close in battleground states (likely voters who resided in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina), with Trump narrowly winning against Biden 46% to 43%, while Jorgensen received 7% and Hawkins 1%. Biden is making things tough for Trump with older voters aged 65+ (Biden leads Trump 58% to 38%), but Trump is winning big with voters aged 30-49 (Trump leads Biden 51% to 38%, Jorgensen 4%, Hawkins 1%) and Generation X (Trump leads Biden 50% to 42%, Jorgensen 2%, Hawkins 1%). The President is also coming back with Independents (Biden leads Trump 39% to 34%, Jorgensen 10%, Hawkins 4%, 13% not sure).

Among "swing voters," who voted for both Obama and Trump in the last two elections, Trump is winning big time, 70% to 21%, while Jorgensen received 5% and Hawkins 1%.

The other areas Biden should be concerned about are Millennials (Trump leads Biden 46% to 40%, Jorgensen 7%, Hawkins 1%) and large city voters (Trump leads Biden 49% to 46%, Jorgensen 3%, and Hawkins 0%). Trump is beating Biden among both groups, who historically lean Democrat.

Trump needs to be concerned about suburban voters (Biden leads Trump 47% to 39%, Jorgensen 3%, Hawkins 3%, 7% not sure) and suburban women (Biden leads Trump 52% to 33%, Jorgensen 4%, Hawkins 2%, 10% not sure), both of whom Biden is winning easily against Trump.

 

Horserace - All Votes*
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid Republican Donald Trump 383 43.4 43.4 43.4
Democrat Joe Biden 402 45.5 45.5 88.9
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen 39 4.5 4.5 93.4
Green Party Howie Hawkins 13 1.5 1.5 94.8
Not sure 46 5.2 5.2 100.0
Total 883 100.0 100.0

* All votes include a follow-up question for those who are unsure of who they would vote for:
"If you had to choose today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, and Green party nominee Howie Hawkins who would you vote for?"

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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
9/25/20 - 9/27/20

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 883 likely voters in the US.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 36% Democrat, 34% Republican and 30% Independent/unaffiliated.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 883 is +/- 3.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

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About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.

 

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