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The Zogby Poll®: Trump and Biden neck and neck in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania; Biden up by four percent in North Carolina; Trump winning big with 'swing voters'

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Florida

When including third party candidates: Libertarian nominee Dr. Jo Jorgensen (3%) and Green party nominee Howie Hawkins (2%), Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied at 43% each, while 9% were unsure. As expected, Joe Biden was performing very well with younger voters aged 18-29 (Biden leads 57% to 15%), but was also out hustling the president with older voters aged 65+ (Biden leads 49% to 44%). The president countered Biden's in-roads with older voters by performing better than Biden among voters aged 30-64 (Trump leads 51% to 37%).

As for gender, no surprises here, Biden performed well with women (Biden leads 49% to 34%) and Trump held onto a strong lead with men (Trump leads 52% to 37%). The big surprise was Biden's performance with voters who do not have college degrees (Biden leads 42% to 40%), while both candidates performed well with voters who had college degrees (Both tied at 45%).

Biden was also winning comfortably with Independents (Biden leads 37% to 31%, 22% are not sure), but many Independents were still unsure who they would support in November. Among swing voters (voted for Obama in 2012 and voted for Trump in 2016), Trump maintained a three to one lead over Biden (Trump leads 68% to 23%). When it came to where voters lived, Trump was winning with voters who live in large cities (Trump leads 47% to 39%) and small cities (Trump leads 43% to 36%), while Biden did the best in the suburbs (Biden leads 52% to 37%) and among suburban women (Biden leads 58% to 30%).

Ohio

Overall, Joe Biden (43%) clung on to a two point lead over the president (41%), while third party candidates, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen (4%) and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins (1%) lagged behind; 11% were not sure. Biden outperformed the president among younger voters aged 18-29 (Biden leads 46% to 36%) but was tied with the President among voters aged 30-65+ (tied at 42%).

While Biden did better with Independents (Biden leads 37% to 28%, 23% not sure), Trump really took it to Biden among swing voters-voted for Obama in 2012 and voted for Trump in 2016-Trump leads 60% to 21%. Trump also performed better than Biden with consumers-weekly Walmart Shoppers (Trump leads 53% to 36%) but was tied with Biden among weekly Amazon shoppers (tied at 43%).

When it came to the environs of Ohioan voters, Trump could not win over urban voters in large cities like he did in Florida (Biden leads 46% to 42%), but Trump did outperform Biden among small city voters (Trump leads 45% to 37%). The former vice president also maintained a healthy lead among suburban voters (Biden leads 43% to 35%) and suburban women (Biden leads 48% to 34%).

Pennsylvania

Joe Biden and Donald Trump were in a statistical tie in the "Keystone State" (Biden leads 44% to 43%), while Jorgensen received 4% and Hawkins 2%; 8% were not sure. Similar patterns were observed in Pennsylvania as with other battleground states that were surveyed. When it came to age, like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, Biden did best with younger voters aged 18-29 (Biden leads 46% to 32%) and older voters aged 65+ (Biden leads 49% to 40%). Trump bested Biden among voters aged 30-49 (Trump leads 50% to 40%) and it was all tied up with voters aged 50-64 (both tied 44%).

Not surprisingly, Biden was leading the president among women voters (Biden leads 51% to 34%), while Trump maintained a steady lead with men (Trump leads 53% to 36%). The president was also outperforming Biden among non-college educated voters (Trump leads 44% to 41%) and the former vice president was leading among college educated voters (Biden leads 47% to 43%).

The president turned things around with Independents, he lead Biden 37% to 35%. Trump also continued his domination of swing voters (Trump leads 73% to 18%). Joe Biden rebounded by winning narrowly in large cities (Biden leads 46% to 43%) and small cities (Biden leads 44% to 40%), while also winning convincingly in the suburbs (Biden leads 48% to 39%) and among suburban women (Biden 56% to 30%).

North Carolina

Overall, Biden performed the best against Trump in the "Tar Heel State." He held a four point lead (Biden leads 44% to 40%) and rounding out the ballot were third party candidates Libertarian Jo Jorgensen (4%) and the Green Party's Howie Hawkins (1%), while 11% were not sure. Both Trump and Biden were tied with voters aged 30-49 (both tied at 40%), and only two percentage points separated voters aged 50-64 (Biden leads 45% to 43%), while Biden dominated with younger voters aged 18-29 (Biden leads 52% to 21%) and Trump performed very well with older voters aged 65+(Trump leads 56% to 40%). Biden also held leads over Trump in three main categories: non-college educated voters (Biden leads 42% to 40%), college educated voters (Biden leads 45% to 40%) and Independents (Biden leads 36% to 32%).

The race among Hispanic voters was very close (Biden leads 42% to 40%), but Trump was able to pull ahead of Biden among consumers, such as, weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 47% to 38%) and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 45% to 40%). The president also continued to outperform Biden among swing voters-Trump leads 63% to 20%-voted for Obama in 2012 and voted for Trump in 2016.

Biden's message continued to resonate well with urban and suburban voters. Biden beat Trump among the following groups-large city voters (Biden leads 44% to 41%), small city voters (Biden leads 48% to 41%), suburban voters (Biden leads 48% to 37%) and suburban women (Biden leads 45% to 33%).

Conclusion

Joe Biden has small leads in key battleground states-Ohio and North Carolina; his largest lead is in North Carolina, where Biden is up by four percentage points. The horse races are much closer in Florida and Pennsylvania, as both candidates were tied or within one percent of each other. Both of the third party candidates did not factor into the horse races of the battleground states; Jorgensen received 3-4% of the vote and Hawkins received 1-2% of the vote.

Right now Biden has the edge because he is appealing to elements of Trump's base, such as, non-college educated voters and voters aged 65+. He also has a commanding lead among Independent voters in three of the battleground states surveyed (Ohio, Florida and North Carolina) and is winning convincingly with suburban voters and suburban women in all four states.

What's keeping things close is Trump's domination of swing voters. A good portion of these voters live in large cities, are aged 30-49, and say their finances are better off than they were four years ago. In order for Trump to get back to his winning ways he will need to maintain a big lead among swing voters and he must also find a way to win back women, suburban voters and Independents from Biden's clutches.

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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
4 State Likely Voters
7/21/20 - 7/23/20

Zogby Analytics conducted online surveys of likely voters in 4 states - Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for each state is as follows:

State Completes Margin of Error
Florida 811 +/- 3.4 percentage points
North Carolina 809 +/- 3.4 percentage points
Ohio 805 +/- 3.5 percentage points
Pennsylvania 809 +/- 3.4 percentage points

This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

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About Zogby Analytics:

Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.

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