Right now President Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden 44% to 40% in our latest Zogby Analytics presidential poll. In third place is Libertarian nominee Dr. Jo Jorgensen (5%) and in fourth place is Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins (2%). 9% of likely voters surveyed were not sure.
President Trump was beating Biden in the east (Trump leads 43% to 41%) and south regions (Trump leads 44% to 37%), while Biden was beating the president in the all important Central Great Lakes (Biden leads 48% to 38%) and western regions (Biden leads 50% to 34%). Joe Biden was crushing Donald Trump with younger voters aged 18-29 by more than a two to one margin (Biden leads 49% to 20%), while Trump was winning slightly with all voters over 30 (Trump leads 45% to 42%).
When it came to party affiliation, Biden performed better with Independents (Biden leads 36% to 31%), while each candidate received at least 82% of their respective parties' support. Interestingly, among Independents, we asked do they lean Republican (71% would vote for Trump), lean Democrat (72% would vote for Biden) or have no lean at all. Among those who said no lean, these are also swing voters, Trump was winning slightly 30% to 28% against Biden.
Biden held healthy advantages among large city voters (Biden leads 46% to 41%), suburban voters (Biden leads 49% to 34%), suburban women (Biden leads 53% to 31%), and suburban parents (Biden leads 45% to 40%), which are groups that will all play a big role in the upcoming presidential election.
President Trump performed better among consumers, such as, weekly Walmart Shoppers (Trump leads 56% to 36%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 49% to 41%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 50% to 33%), urban men (Trump leads 47% to 40%), urban parents (Trump leads 52% to 34%) and small city voters (Trump leads 44% to 36%).
Right now the one group to look at is swing voters. We define swing voters as those who voted for Obama in 2012 and then switched to Trump in 2016. Of these voters, Trump leads Biden by a three to one margin (65% to 21%). Why is this important for Trump? In 2016 these voters comprised of nearly 6 million voters, and nearly all of these voters were white, and many lived in rust belt and mid-western states. Trump is not down for the count yet.
Most political observers point to turnout and a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton's candidacy, among other things, as major factors for her defeat in the 2016 presidential election to Donald Trump. Pundits also agree Democrats must win back swing voters (voters who voted for Obama in 2012 and then switched to Trump in 2016) in order to reclaim the presidency and Senate in 2020. While swing voters are going to play an important role in the November presidential election, they are not the only factor associated with how the presidential election will be won by either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. For Biden, this means banking on youth discontentment and hoping the anger in the streets of cities across the nation will translate into a big voter turnout for the Democrats. For Trump, it means hoping swing voters stay in his column and he improves his performance with suburban voters. Both scenarios are easier said than done for each candidate.
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
7/21/20 - 7/23/20
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1516 likely voters in the US.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 36% Democrat, 34% Republican and 30% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1516 is +/- 2.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.