The Zogby Poll®: Trump's job approval in ten battleground states; Trump's rating is down in the "blue wall" states he won in 2016; Trump is losing steam with his base: men and voters without college degrees

Arizona: Trump's job approval was alright in the "Copper State," which he won in 2016. Arizona has been a "swing state" for decades, and now a race many pundits consider a toss-up between Biden and Trump. The president's numbers were decent, but not something to be desired, for an incumbent president. Overall, he did well: 47% at least somewhat approved and 52% at least somewhat disapproved, while 1% of likely voters were not sure. The biggest problem Trump was facing was with key demographics.

• Age: the president struggled with younger voters aged 18-29 (31% at least somewhat approved and 68% at least somewhat disapproved) but he did much better with older voters aged 50-64 (51% at least somewhat approved and 48% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Gender: men were more favorable toward the president's job approval (52% at least somewhat approved and 48% at least somewhat disapproved) than women (42% at least somewhat approved and 56% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Party: not surprisingly, 87% of Democrats at least somewhat disapproved of President Trump, while only 12% at least somewhat approved. On the flipside 86% of Republicans at least somewhat approved and 14% at least somewhat disapproved. When it came to Independents the president struggled as only 40% at least somewhat approved of his job, while 59% at least somewhat disapproved.
• Swing voters: the president performed a little better with these groups but he still needs to improve his numbers with them in order to carry the state again in 2020. For example, Trump's job approval with suburban voters was alright (48% at least somewhat approved and 51% at least somewhat disapproved). His job approval improved with weekly Walmart shoppers (50% at least somewhat approved and 50% at least somewhat disapproved) and weekly Amazon shoppers (52% at least somewhat approved and 47% at least somewhat disapproved). More importantly, Trump's job approval is down with union voters (44% at least somewhat approved and 54% at least somewhat disapproved), and voters without college degrees (48% at least somewhat approved and 51% at least somewhat disapproved).

Florida: overall, President Trump was polling below 50% job approval in an important swing state; his current job approval in the "Sunshine State" was 47% at least somewhat approved and 51% at least somewhat disapproved among likely voters (2% were not sure). The president did much better with key demographics and swing voters in a state he needs to win in 2020.

• Age: the president did terrible with younger voters aged 18-29 (34% at least somewhat approved and 62% at least somewhat disapproved). The president's job approval with voters aged 50+ was near his overall numbers. Trump performed the best with voters aged 30-49 (53% at least somewhat approved and 45% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Gender: men (53% at least somewhat approved and 47% at least somewhat disapproved) rated Trump's performance much higher than women (42% at least somewhat approved and 55% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Party: Trump was extremely unpopular with Democrats (14% at least somewhat approved and 85% at least somewhat disapproved) but he had strong support from Republicans (87% at least somewhat approved and 12% at least somewhat disapproved). Again, the president did not resonate with Independents (39% at least somewhat approved and 57% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Swing voters: Trump did have some appeal with suburban voters (46% at least somewhat approved and 54% at least somewhat disapproved) and the president did rebound with urban voters in large cities (51% at least somewhat approved and 48% at least somewhat disapproved). Trump received high marks from weekly Amazon shoppers (54% at least somewhat approved and 44% at least somewhat disapproved) and weekly Walmart shoppers (52% at least somewhat approved and 48% at least somewhat disapproved), while also receiving a very good rating from union voters (61% at least somewhat approved and 39% at least somewhat disapproved). Among Hispanics, Trump performed better than he normally does (48% at least somewhat approved and 50% at least somewhat disapproved). Complicating matters for Trump, he lost support from voters without college degrees (48% at least somewhat approved and 51% at least somewhat disapproved).

Georgia: in a state that Trump won last time around, although Hillary Clinton made it competitive in 2016, Trump's job approval was decent. Among likely voters Trump's job approval was 48% at least somewhat approved and 50% at least somewhat disapproved; 2% were not sure. In an ongoing trend, the president lost ground with some of his biggest supporters.

• Age: Trump's abysmal numbers with younger voters aged 18-29 continued (41% at least somewhat approved and 56% at least somewhat disapproved), although he did poll better with younger voters than in other states. The president's numbers, among voters aged 30+, were better (49% at least somewhat approved and 49% at least somewhat disapproved). The president did score higher numbers with older voters aged 65+ (51% at least somewhat approved and 49% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Gender: the president did not receive a majority support from men (50% at least somewhat approved and 48% at least somewhat disapproved) but he performed slightly better with women in Georgia than he currently does on a national level (45% at least somewhat approved and 53% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Party: Democrats (13% at least somewhat approved and 83% at least somewhat disapproved) despised the president, while Trump received strong support from Republicans (85% at least somewhat approved and 13% at least somewhat disapproved). Any momentum petered out among Independents (41% at least somewhat approved and 57% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Swing voters: Trump's job approval rating was dismal with suburban voters (40% at least somewhat approved and 58% at least somewhat disapproved), but his numbers improved with union voters (52% at least somewhat approved and 47% at least somewhat disapproved), weekly Walmart shoppers (57% at least somewhat approved and 42% at least somewhat disapproved) and weekly Amazon shoppers (51% at least somewhat approved and 49% at least somewhat disapproved). In a stunning twist, President Trump received less support from voters without college degrees (46% at least somewhat approved and 51% at least somewhat disapproved).

Maine: compared to Minnesota, Trump's job approval was slightly better: 44% at least somewhat approved/54% at least somewhat disapproved and 2% were not sure. Trump's approval rating was still too low if he wants to compete in the state come election time. Many of the same trends continued with Trump's approval rating among important demographics. He did not perform well with most age groups, with exception to likely voters aged 50-64 (53% at least somewhat approved and 46% at least somewhat disapproved). Trump continued to underwhelm with men (49% at least somewhat approved and 50% at least somewhat disapproved), Independents (36% at least somewhat approved and 60% at least somewhat disapproved), voters without college degrees (46% at least somewhat approved and 52% at least somewhat disapproved), suburban voters (40% at least somewhat approved and 59% at least somewhat disapproved) and most importantly, rural voters (44% at least somewhat approved and 54% at least somewhat disapproved). The president performed better with weekly Walmart shoppers (60% at least somewhat approved and 39% at least somewhat disapproved) and men (49% at least somewhat approved and 50% at least somewhat disapproved) but this may be too little, too late for President Trump.

Michigan: Trump's struggles continued in the "blue wall" state he conquered in 2016. Trump has had a seesaw relationship as of late with voters in Michigan and his approval rating in the state has taking a beating: 40% at least somewhat approved and 57% at least somewhat disapproved; 2% were not sure. The president did not fare any better with key voter groups.

• Age: the president did not receive a majority approval rating from any age group. Among younger voters aged 18-29 (34% at least somewhat approved and 64% at least somewhat disapproved) his numbers were very low. His job approval among voters aged 50+ ranged from 45%-47% and his disapproval was 50%-55%. More importantly, among a group he normally does well with, voters aged 30-49; Trump's job approval was dismal: 36% at least somewhat approved and 62% at least somewhat disapproved.
• Gender: Trump's issues with voter appeal in the "blue wall" states continued as he also did not receive a majority job approval from men (48% at least somewhat approved and 51% at least somewhat disapproved). Women were very much less enthused about the president's job rating (33% at least somewhat approved and 64% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Party: Republicans' support of the president remained strong (82% at least somewhat approved and 17% at least somewhat disapproved), while Democrats rated the president's job approval very poorly (9% at least somewhat approved and 88% at least somewhat disapproved). Trump did not perform any better with Independents, as his struggles to win back their support continued (39% at least somewhat approved and 59% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Swing voters: In a stunning reversal, Trump did not receive a majority job approval rating from any important swing voter group. For example, voters without college degrees (44% at least somewhat approved and 54% at least somewhat disapproved), union voters (35% at least somewhat approved and 64% at least somewhat disapproved), suburban voters (36% at least somewhat approved and 63% at least somewhat disapproved) and weekly Amazon shoppers (46% at least somewhat approved and 53% at least somewhat disapproved) all rated his job as president poorly; he did perform well with weekly Walmart shoppers (55% at least somewhat approved and 42% at least somewhat disapproved) but this is not enough to secure victory again in Michigan.

Minnesota: Hillary Clinton won Minnesota in 2016 but it was competitive. Right now, it doesn't appear to be close or within Trump's striking distance. The president's approval rating was not good: 42% at least somewhat approved/56% at least somewhat disapproved and 2% were not sure.
Outside of conservatives (76% at least somewhat approved and 22% at least somewhat disapproved), Republicans (85% at least somewhat approved and 13% at least somewhat disapproved), Born Again Christians (65% at least somewhat approved and 32% at least somewhat disapproved) and weekly Walmart shoppers (54% at least somewhat approved and 44% at least somewhat disapproved), no other subgroups gave the president a majority job approval rating. When it came to swing voters, the president struck out. Among Independents (33% at least somewhat approved and 62% at least somewhat disapproved), suburban voters, voters without college degrees (44% at least somewhat approved and 54% at least somewhat disapproved) (46% at least somewhat approved and 52% at least somewhat disapproved) and union voters (36% at least somewhat approved and 63% at least somewhat disapproved) Trump's approval rating was well below where it needs to be if this race is going to be close again in November. The president also lost ground with men (46% at least somewhat approved and 52% at least somewhat disapproved).

North Carolina: it has become a potential swing state in the next presidential election and one Democrats have their eyes on. The president's job approval rating was not where it needs to be: 46% at least somewhat approved and 53% at least somewhat disapproved; 2% were not sure.
Similar trends continued for president Trump with regards to voters' age and gender in the "Tar Heel State." Trump struggled with voters aged 30-64 (43% at least somewhat approved and 56% at least somewhat disapproved) but he did receive a majority job approval rating from voters aged 65+ (62% at least somewhat approved and 36% at least somewhat disapproved). President Trump did slightly better with men (49% at least somewhat approved and 49% at least somewhat disapproved) and women (43% at least somewhat approved and 56% at least somewhat disapproved) but he still did not receive a majority approval rating from either group. As has been the case for the last couple of years, the president did not get a good rating from Independents (38% at least somewhat approved and 60% at least somewhat disapproved).
Among important swing voters, the president did not perform well with suburban voters (42% at least somewhat approved and 56% at least somewhat disapproved), voters without college degrees (47% at least somewhat approved and 52% at least somewhat disapproved) and weekly Amazon shoppers (49% at least somewhat approved and 50% at least somewhat disapproved).
The president did make up the deficit by performing very well with weekly Walmart shoppers (58% at least somewhat approved and 42% at least somewhat disapproved) and union voters (56% at least somewhat approved and 43% at least somewhat disapproved).

Ohio: the president's job approval dipped a little: 45% at least somewhat approved and 53% at least somewhat disapproved; 3% were not sure. Trump continued to lose ground with important subgroups. Among all age cohorts, he did not receive 50% job approval, but among voters aged 30-49 he received some support (47% at least somewhat approved and 50% at least somewhat disapproved), which is important because this is a group he has done well with, as of late. Trump did receive a razor thin majority among men (51% at least somewhat approved and 46% at least somewhat disapproved) but he performed dismally with women (38% at least somewhat approved and 59% at least somewhat disapproved).
Trump's performance among important swing voters was as follows: Independents (36% at least somewhat approved and 60% at least somewhat disapproved), union voters (40% at least somewhat approved and 57% at least somewhat disapproved), and weekly Amazon shoppers (48% at least somewhat approved and 50% at least somewhat disapproved). Donald Trump did receive a majority of support among weekly Walmart shoppers (53% at least somewhat approved and 43% at least somewhat disapproved), but it was less support than he normally receives on a national level or in other states. The president also continued to receive little support from voters without college degrees (45% at least somewhat approved and 51% at least somewhat disapproved).

Pennsylvania: this was a razor thin victory for Trump in 2016. Trump did much better with voters in the "Keystone State," 47% at least somewhat approved/50% at least somewhat disapproved and 2% were not sure. The president also performed much better among his base, such as, men (54% at least somewhat approved and 44% at least somewhat disapproved), older voters aged 50-64 (51% at least somewhat approved and 47% at least somewhat disapproved), Generation X voters (54% at least somewhat approved and 44% at least somewhat disapproved), voters living in medium size cities (54% at least somewhat approved and 43% at least somewhat disapproved), Central Pennsylvania voters (58% at least somewhat approved and 41% at least somewhat disapproved), voters whose household income is $75-100K (53% at least somewhat approved and 46% at least somewhat disapproved), veterans of the armed forces (52% at least somewhat approved and 48% at least somewhat disapproved), weekly Walmart shoppers (57% at least somewhat approved and 40% at least somewhat disapproved) and weekly Amazon shoppers (51% at least somewhat approved and 46% at least somewhat disapproved).

On the other hand, the president struggled with some important groups that are vital to his reelection. These were union voters (44% at least somewhat approved and 55% at least somewhat disapproved), Independents (41% at least somewhat approved and 54% at least somewhat disapproved), voters without college degrees (47% at least somewhat approved and 57% at least somewhat disapproved), suburban voters (41% at least somewhat approved and 57% at least somewhat disapproved), and small city voters (33% at least somewhat approved and 62% at least somewhat disapproved).

Wisconsin: for a state Trump shocked the world by winning in 2016, he is struggling mightily at the moment (41% at least somewhat approved and 57% at least somewhat disapproved; 2% were not sure). Could Democrats raise the "blue wall" again?

• Age: Donald Trump did not receive 50% job approval from any age group. His best approval rating was among voters aged 65+ (46% at least somewhat approved and 54% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Gender: Trump's issues with voter appeal continued as he did not receive a majority job approval from men (44% at least somewhat approved and 54% at least somewhat disapproved), which are the cornerstone of his base. The president's woes continued with women (38% at least somewhat approved and 60% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Party: Donald Trump continued to receive strong support from Republicans (84% at least somewhat approved and 14% at least somewhat disapproved) and he received little to no support from Democrats (8% at least somewhat approved and 91% at least somewhat disapproved). The president's approval rating with Independents was anemic (31% at least somewhat approved and 66% at least somewhat disapproved).
• Swing voters: among three important groups instrumental to Trump's reelection, the president's numbers were very low: union voters (41% at least somewhat approved and 59% at least somewhat disapproved), voters without college degrees (45% at least somewhat approved and 53% at least somewhat disapproved) and weekly Amazon shoppers (45% at least somewhat approved and 54% at least somewhat disapproved) were not impressed with Trump's performance. Trump's job approval remained solid with weekly Walmart shoppers (57% at least somewhat approved and 42% at least somewhat disapproved).

The Takeaways

Trump's job approval rating in battleground states that will decide the 2020 presidential election were up and down. In five states he had at least a 46% job approval rating: Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. These figures are decent, and while they won't guarantee him victory, it does put him in a good position to win these states again.

The states Trump struggled in and received less than 45% job approval were: Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, and Minnesota. The president's path to victory will likely have to include Ohio or Michigan. In these states the president struggled with swing voters, such as, Independents, suburban voters and union voters. More alarming are his struggles with his base. The president was losing ground with men, non-college educated voters, Generation X voters and weekly Amazon shoppers.

At the moment Trump is at a crossroads. While his job approval numbers are decent in certain swing states, they are also not good in others, especially in states he narrowly won or made competitive in 2016. The groups he needs to improve with are ones he won in 2016: Independents, suburban voters and union voters. In states like Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan, his job approval was below 50% in all three categories. The president will need to shore up his support with these groups if he is going to win reelection.

The other disturbing trend, in the numbers for Trump, was that the president was losing steam amongst his most ardent supporters in key states. In six states (Wisconsin, Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Michigan and Maine), four of which the president won in 2016, he did not receive a majority approval rating from men. Also, just as disturbing, the president did not receive a majority approval rating from non-college educated voters in all ten states we surveyed.

The president is on the ropes at the moment. He is not down for the count yet and there is a path to victory, but in the way is Joe Biden. Has the pandemic and recession dampened Trump's support among his base or could they come out in less force this time around? Could Trump gain momentum as the economy reopens or will another lockdown doom his reelection? One thing is for certain, Trump needs to get his show on the road quickly and fill those seats immediately because even his biggest supporters are not impressed with his job as president at the moment.

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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
Likely Voters
6/10/20 - 6/13/20

Zogby Analytics conducted online surveys of likely voters in 10 states - Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for each state is as follows:

This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

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About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.