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 Trump Approval
4 States

Trump Approval


Trump Approval
4 States - Swing Voters

US Direction

The Zogby Poll®: Trump job approval steady at 48% approve/51% disapprove; Biden and Trump neck and neck at 46%; Biden performing very well with swing voters; Trump's approval at 51% with Hispanics

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The president's job approval remains below fifty percent (48% at least somewhat approve/51% at least somewhat disapprove). Only 1% of respondents were not sure. Trump's job approval numbers are down from his high approval ratings at the end of March (51% at least somewhat approve/47% at least somewhat disapprove). During this almost exact moment at the end of Barack Obama's first term his job approval numbers were very similar: Zogby had Obama's overall job approval (strongly and somewhat combined) at 48% approve/50% disapprove, while 2% were not sure how they felt.

Trump faces many challenges at the moment: a global pandemic, dysfunction at all levels of government, protests across the nation, and the president himself stirring the pot, however, his job approval numbers remain buoyed by increased support among his base. These voters are men (54% at least somewhat approve and 45% at least somewhat disapprove), Southern voters (53% at least somewhat approve and 46% at least somewhat disapprove), Southern urban voters (56% at least somewhat approve and 43% at least somewhat disapprove), voters with annual household incomes of $150K+ (62% at least somewhat approve and 38% at least somewhat disapprove), rural voters (57% at least somewhat approve and 42% at least somewhat disapprove), voters aged 30-49 (54% at least somewhat approve and 45% at least somewhat disapprove), Generation X voters (54% at least somewhat approve and 45% at least somewhat disapprove), union members (63% at least somewhat approve/36% at least somewhat disapprove), weekly Walmart shoppers (61% at least somewhat approve and 37% at least somewhat disapprove) and weekly Amazon shoppers (56% at least somewhat approve and 43% at least somewhat disapprove).

The president is receiving unexpected support from Hispanic voters (51% at least somewhat approve and 47% at least somewhat disapprove), large city voters (53% at least somewhat approve and 46% at least somewhat disapprove), Millennials (48% at least somewhat approve and 51% at least somewhat disapprove), creative job sector employees (53% at least somewhat approve and 47% at least somewhat disapprove), self-identified creative class voters (55% at least somewhat approve and 45% at least somewhat disapprove), and lower income voters with annual household income of $25-35K (57% approve and 42% disapprove).

Where the president needs to improve his standing is with swing voters: suburban voters (42% at least somewhat approve and 58% at least somewhat disapprove), suburban women (39% at least somewhat approve and 61% at least somewhat disapprove), older voters aged 65+ (46% at least somewhat approve and 53% at least somewhat disapprove), Independents (42% at least somewhat approve and 56% at least somewhat disapprove) and voters without college degrees (48% at least somewhat approve and 52% at least somewhat disapprove).

Right now the U.S. economy is experiencing a massive recession, one bigger than the "Great Recession of 2009." Trump needs to aim his message at voters who are hurting and unemployed. His message to these voters will have to focus on reopening the economy and getting people back to work. So far, his message might be working-his job approval numbers among voters who are struggling is very good. We classify economically vulnerable voters as those who have recently lost a job (57% at least somewhat approve and 41% at least somewhat disapprove), voters working at a job that pays less (50% at least somewhat approve and 48% at least somewhat disapprove), voters afraid of losing a job (50% at least somewhat approve and 49% at least somewhat disapprove) and voters who have gone without food for 24 hours (58% at least somewhat approve and 40% at least somewhat disapprove).

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Overall, the incumbent president and Democratic Party nominee are in a dead heat, 46% to 46%, while 8% of voters are not sure. If regional support is any indication as to what might happen in the 2020 Presidential Election, based on the current numbers we might be in for a long night come election day in November: the president leads in the South (Trump leads 50% to 44%), while Biden leads in the East (Biden leads 49% to 43%) and West (Biden leads 49% to 41%) while the Central/Great Lakes is tied (46% each). Once again, the race will be won in states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio. Biden was also polling well with suburban voters in the South (Biden leads 48% to 45%), while the president barely won with urban voters in the east (Trump leads 47% to 46%) and suburban voters in the Central/Great Lakes region (Trump leads 46% to 41%).

Another important aspect of the match-up between Trump and Biden is age: Biden holds the advantage with younger voters aged 18-29 (Biden leads 56% to 33%), Generation Z voters (Biden leads 55% to 34%) and Millennials (Biden leads 48% to 43%), while Trump is leading the Democratic nominee with voters aged 35-54 (Trump leads 50% to 42%), Generation X (Trump leads 51% to 42%) and Baby Boomers (Trump leads 48% to 46%). Among the oldest voters, aged 65+, Biden holds a small lead over the president, 48% to 46%.

Right now Biden has the advantage with swing voters, such as, women (Biden leads 50% to 41%) suburban voters (Biden leads 50% to 40%), Independents (Biden leads 47% to 38%), and suburban women (Biden leads 52% to 36%).

Trump stands his ground by tying Biden among medium size city voters (44% each) but Biden also keeps things close by making things even with some of the president's most ardent supporters-non-college educated voters (both tied 47% each). Trump continues to perform well with small city voters (Trump leads 48% to 45%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 63% to 32%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 60% to 31%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 43%) and voters whose household income is $100k+ (Trump leads 53% to 39%). The former vice president is currently connecting with the middle class. He is beating the president among voters whose annual household income is $75-$100k (Biden leads 49% to 44%).

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A slight majority (53% at least somewhat agree) of surveyed likely voters believe Democratic governors are keeping COVID-19 restrictions in place to hurt President Trump's chances in the 2020 Presidential Election, while 47% at least somewhat disagree with this notion.

Regarding the issue, it was not as spilt down typical demographic lines as one might think, except for party. More than two-thirds (69%) of Democrats at least somewhat disagreed with the idea of Democratic governors using Covid-19 restrictions to hurt Trump's re-election chances, while 31% at least somewhat agreed. Republicans were more intense in their feelings when it came to how Democratic governors were handling Covid-19 restrictions: 80% at least somewhat agreed/20% at least somewhat disagreed that "blue state" governors were using the coronavirus as an excuse to hurt the re-election of president Trump.

Interestingly, majorities of younger voters aged 18-24 (54% at least somewhat agree/46% at least somewhat disagree), voters aged 18-29 (55% at least somewhat agree/46% at least somewhat disagree), and voters aged 30-49 (61% at least somewhat agree/39% at least somewhat disagree) agreed that certain governors were keeping in place Covid-19 restrictions on businesses and the public to hurt Trump's re-election chances. As the age of voters increased, so did their level of disagreement-voters aged 50-64 (47% at least somewhat agree/53% at least somewhat disagree) and voters aged 65+ (43% at least somewhat agree/57% at least somewhat disagree) disagreed the most. Majorities of both men (54% at least somewhat agree/46% at least somewhat disagree) and women (52% at least somewhat agree/48% at least somewhat disagree) agreed that Democratic states restricting businesses and public movement was on purpose to hurt Trump's chances for re-election in 2020.

Another surprising finding was among Hispanics-a majority (59% at least somewhat agree/41% at somewhat disagree) of Hispanic voters agreed that Democratic governors were using coronavirus restrictions to hurt Trump in the 2020 Presidential election.

Swing voters such as Independents (47% at least somewhat agree/53% at least somewhat disagree), moderates (44% at least somewhat agree/56% at least somewhat disagree), suburban voters (45% at least somewhat agree/55% at least somewhat disagree) and suburban women (46% at least somewhat agree/54% at least somewhat disagree) were also less likely to believe current Covid-19 restriction in "blue states" were designed to hurt President Trump's re-election chances.

The Takeaways

The president's job approval numbers are down and he is in a close race with Joe Biden for the 2020 Presidential Election. Trump is not down for the count yet! He has lost significant ground with Independents and suburban voters but has gained ground with Hispanics and younger voters.

Biden is winning over swing voters. Right now he experiencing a resurgence not seen since the "comeback kid" Bill Clinton in 1992. While most polls have him blowing out Trump, like 2016 when Hillary was ahead by double digits in almost every poll, we have it neck and neck. Does he a big enough coalition to defeat Trump? It all depends if the anger in the streets translates into more younger voters for Biden. Trump's job approval among Millennials is alright and he polls very well with voters aged 30-49, so it's not a slam dunk for Biden just yet.

Who Biden picks for a vice presidential running mate is very important! Since the protests across the country related to police brutality and inequality continue to rage, Biden might need to pick an African American running mate to keep this energy and momentum alive among his base. As the summer heats-up and Covid-19 restrictions are loosened, some of the protests could wane. Biden's vice-presidential pick could keep momentum among the base going or alienate young voters and minorities who are looking to Biden for justice.

Many voters believe Democratic governors are using Covid-19 restrictions to hurt the president's chances in the 2020 election. This sentiment was felt by many groups who typically support Democrats or who are left-leaning. Hispanics, women, and younger voters all agreed Democratic governors were using Covid-19 as an excuse to hurt Trump's re-election campaign. What's not known is if they agree with it. Since Trump has made in-roads with Hispanics and younger voters he might be able to leverage a bit more support among Hispanics and Millennials due to their feelings about Covid-19 restrictions. This is far from certain, however, swing voters, such as Independents, suburban voters and moderates did not agree that Democratic governors were purposely trying to hurt Trump with coronavirus restrictions on businesses and the public.

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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
6/1/20 - 6/2/20

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1007 likely voters in the US.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books, and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 36% Democrat, 36% Republican, and 28% Independent/unaffiliated.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1007 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule, we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset, we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases, the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create errors, such as question-wording and question order.


About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals, and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies, and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.

New 2020 presidential poll results powered by Zogby Analytics. 

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