Cuomo's dog "Captain" has a better favorable rating than de Blasio and Ocasio-Cortez
Senator Chuck Schumer performed well with almost every sub-group surveyed. Schumer beat Ocasio-Cortez in every region: Upstate (Schumer leads 59% to 15%), suburbs (Schumer leads 56% to 19%), and NYC (Schumer leads 48% to 28%). The senate minority leader won regardless of gender, ideology, environ, and generation. More importantly, Schumer also performed well with swing voters, such as, suburban voters (Schumer leads 56% to 16%) and suburban women (Schumer leads 48% to 17%).
Even though on paper it looks like a mismatch, the freshman congresswomen did win with voters aged 18-29 (Ocasio-Cortez leads 56% to 16%), voters aged 18-34 (Ocasio-Cortez leads 45% to 29%), and single voters (Ocasio-Cortez leads 36% to 34%). "AOC" also polled decent with voters living in NYC. While it would be hard to defeat someone of Schumer's stature, Ocasio Cortez could make things interesting in a primary by energizing the younger base throughout the state, and depending on turnout, could make a hypothetical primary interesting at the very least. Also of note, are the two groups who were most unsure about how they would vote-women (Schumer leads 49% to 19%; 25% unsure) and suburban women (Schumer leads 48% to 17%; 25% unsure)-Ocasio Cortez could take advantage of their uncertainty, and appeal to both groups, which could help better her chances in a potential primary showdown.
A hypothetical primary between the junior Senator from New York-Kirsten Gillibrand and Congresswomen Ocasio-Cortez didn't yield much different results than the match-up with Schumer, but the race is much closer. Unlike Schumer, Gillibrand did not receive a majority of support from likely voters statewide, but she was easily beating the firebrand Ocasio-Cortez (from the Bronx) in a potential Democratic primary. Another thing that should be pointed out is that Gillibrand did not receive a majority support from many sub-groups surveyed. She did best with older voters aged 65+ (Gillibrand leads 64% to 12%), Protestants (Gillibrand leads 52% to 23%), and consumers who shop at Walmart a few times a year (Gillibrand leads 52% to 24%).
Representative Ocasio-Cortez did very well with younger voters aged 18-34 (Ocasio-Cortez leads 46% to 24%), voters in living in NYC (Ocasio-Cortez and Gillibrand tied at 35%), self-identified liberals (Gillibrand leads 41% to 35%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Ocasio-Cortez leads 38% to 36%) and Millennials (Ocasio-Cortez leads 44% to 31%).
The fact that Ocasio-Cortez is neck and neck with Gillibrand in NYC, and beating the former presidential candidate among younger voters, should be worrisome to the senator since many votes on a statewide level come from downstate, and Ocasio-Cortez has the name recognition to energize younger voters. Gillibrand should take note.
Among likely voters it's no big surprise that Governor Cuomo is the most popular politician in New York State. Cuomo's rating was sky high at 68% favorable/28% unfavorable (very and somewhat combined). He polled extremely well with all sub-groups, but did the best with African Americans (81% favorable/13% unfavorable), suburban voters (68% favorable/29% unfavorable), NYC voters (78% favorable/17% unfavorable), baby boomers (71% favorable/29% unfavorable) and suburban women (71% favorable/26% unfavorable).
Of the remaining New York State politicians surveyed, no one else received a majority favorable rating. The next closest politician with a decent rating was Senator Chuck Schumer (50% favorable/38% unfavorable) followed by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (46% favorable/33% unfavorable), NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (38% favorable/46% unfavorable) and Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (35% favorable/38% unfavorable).
On the national front, presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden received a 52% favorable/40% unfavorable rating. What's worrisome for Biden is he did not receive a majority favorable rating from younger voters aged 18-29 (45% favorable/47% unfavorable), white voters (48% favorable/45% unfavorable), suburban voters (48% favorable/45% unfavorable) and suburban women (49% favorable/42% unfavorable).
In an interesting twist, even though New York is one of the "bluest" Democratic states, the President (41% favorable/56% unfavorable) polled better than NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and was close to junior Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.
Although Senators Schumer and Gillibrand are winning against Ocasio-Cortez in hypothetical Democratic primaries, the freshman congresswomen is performing well among younger voters and urban voters. If she were to energize both groups and benefit from a low turnout, she could shock the world again like she did when she ousted longtime Congressman Joseph Crowley in 2018. Also, women were the most uncertain of the surveyed groups, which could give "AOC" further leverage against heavyweights like Schumer and Gillibrand.
Not shockingly, New York's favorite son Governor Andrew Cuomo continues to have a sky high favorable rating, while no other New York politician received a majority favorable rating. Schumer was next in line with a 50% favorable/38% unfavorable rating. Could Cuomo's performance and daily news briefings help him steal the nomination from Biden? While this was considered inconceivable a few month ago, Biden is struggling to form a coherent campaign message, and has not looked well in front of the camera. Only time will tell.
Joe Biden is struggling in New York if you dig deep into the numbers. Even as he enjoys a mini-moment leading in some polls against Trump, New York should be a softball, but he struggles with important groups like younger voters aged 18-29, white voters, suburban voters and suburban women. He really needs to win over the "Bernie Bros." Could this be a sign of things to come for Biden in other states?
It's not rocket science that de Blasio and Ocasio-Cortez poll well with voters in NYC, but outside of their areas of influence both politicians receive a less favorable rating than New York State first dog, "Captain." They might want to re-think their chances on a statewide and national level in the near to distant future!
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
New York Likely Voters
5/7/20 - 5/8/20
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 820 likely voters in New York.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 820 is +/- 3.4 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
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Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.