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US Direction

 

The Zogby California Poll®: Californians: United About U.S., Divided About California

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Sixty-three percent of Californians believe that the United States is on the wrong track compared to only 27% who believe it is heading in the right direction.

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Partisan and ideological differences are stark. Thus, 81% of liberals believe the US is on the wrong track compared to 65% of moderates and 39% of conservatives. Similarly, 62% of California Republicans believe that the US is on the right track, compared to 22% of independents and 13% of Democrats.

We also observed regional and demographic differences. Those who never shop at Walmart (79%), residents of the Bay area (76%), Asian-Americans (75%), small-city residents (75%), those aged 50-64 (73%) and Baby Boomers (70%), urban (69%) and suburban females (72%) are most likely to say that the US is on the wrong track. In contrast, NASCAR fans (45% say the US is heading in the right direction), protestant males (42%), urban parents (39%), rural males (37%), union members (38%), weekly Walmart shoppers (36%), parents or guardians of children under 17 who are living at home (36%), residents of Monterey/Fresno (35%), those aged 30-49 (35%), men (34%) and married respondents (34%) are all relatively more likely than average to say the US is heading in the right direction.

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Californians are much more divided when it comes to their views of the direction of their own state. Overall, 45% believe that California is heading in the right direction, 41% believe that is on the wrong track and 14% are unsure. Interestingly, compared to their views of the direction of the US, partisan differences are less pronounced and Independents are by far the least satisfied. Thus, while 57% of Democrats believe that California is going in the right direction, so does 42% of Republicans but only 29% of Independents.

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Liberals (66% believe California is heading in the right direction), urban parents (56%), urban males (53%), those with household income greater than $150,000 (53%), those who never shop at Walmart (53%), Bay area  (53%) and LA/Orange area (48%) residents are some of the groups that are happiest with California's direction. Conversely, those with household income between $35,000 and $50,000 (55% believe California is on the wrong track), suburban males (55%), protestant women (49%), residents of Sacramento (48%) and non-heterosexual Californians (48%) are most likely to be concerned about the direction California is heading in.

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Californians seem to agree about the future of America: two-thirds of Californians believe that the United States is on the wrong track compared to only a quarter who believe it is heading in the right direction. However, this number masks stark partisan and ideological differences: Democrats are much more concerned about the future of the US than are Republicans, with Independents in between (but much closer to Democrats).

Conversely, while Californians are closely divided (45% to 41%) in their views about the future of California, these differences are to a much smaller extent ideological. In fact, Independents are the group that is by far the most concerned about the future of California, lagging 13 percentage points behind Republicans and 28 points behind Democrats in their satisfaction, suggesting that, when it comes to politics, California is a world of its own in its residents minds.

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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
California Likely Voters
5/7/20 - 5/8/20

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 809 likely voters in California.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 809 is +/- 3.4 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

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About Zogby Analytics:

Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.

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