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 Trump Approval
4 States

Trump Approval


Trump Approval
4 States - Swing Voters

US Direction

A brittle majority can live with the lockdown until August

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A majority (57%) of likely voters believe they can live a healthy life in a lock-down until August. This is true despite a large number being worried that they or their family members will become physically or mentally ill because of the continued lockdown (47%) or reporting that they have suffered increased depression because of the lockdown (44%).

Coronavirus healthylife employed

Veterans (75%), weekly Amazon shoppers (70%), Republicans (65%), rural males (65%), divorced voters (65%), married voters (64%), voters aged 40-54 (62%), urban males (62%) and college-educated voters (61%) are some of the groups that are most likely to say that they can live a healthy life in a lock-down until August. In contrast, voters aged 18-22 (45%), single voters who live with a partner (41%) and those who make less than $25,000 (47%) are groups least likely to say that they can live a healthy life in a lock-down until August.

Men (61%) are more likely than women (51%) to say they can make it to August, while respondents in the West (60%), Central Great Lakes (58%) and South (58%) are more likely to say the same than are respondents in the East (50%).

Coronavirus healthylife employed demos

A plurality (48%) of surveyed likely voters say that they have not suffered any increased depression because of the lock-down; however a very similar number (44%) say that they have suffered increased depression. Veterans (63%), younger voters aged 18-22 (55%), large city residents (51%) and urban females (50%) are most likely to report that they have suffered increased depression because of the lockdown.

Once again, men (43% report increased depression) appear a bit more resilient than women (47%), while population density seems to be adversely affecting mental health with 51% of large city residents but only 37% of rural area residents reporting increased depression because of the lock-down.

Coronavirus depression employed

Coronavirus depression employed demos

Most (47%) likely voters are not worried that they or their family will become physically or mentally ill because of the continued lockdown; however a significant proportion (41%) is worried. Once again, younger voters seem more worried than older respondents (50% of those aged 18-22, 54% of those aged 23-29 and 53% of those aged 30-39 are worried, compared to 33% of likely voters over 55). Parents (56%), large city residents (55%) and college-educated voters (53%) are more worried than non-parents (41%), rural area residents (39%) and non-college educated voters (40%).

Coronavirus family employed

Coronavirus family employed demos

Conclusions

A majority of likely voters believe they can live a healthy life in a lock-down until August. At the same time, close to half are worried that they or their family members will become physically or mentally ill because of the continued lockdown or are reporting that they have suffered increased depression because of it.

The biggest factor shaping one's lock-down resilience is age. Younger voters are approximately fifteen percentage points less likely to say that can live a healthy life in a lock-down until August than are voters over 40. Young voters are also substantially more likely to report that they have suffered increased depression because of the lockdowns and that they are worried that they or their family members could become physically or mentally ill because of it.

Men and those who live in more rural areas also tend to report being more resilient to lock-down effects. Parents are much more likely to be worried about becoming mentally or physically ill due to the lockdown while married and divorced voters tend to be substantially more confident they can make it until August than those who are single.

Recently we found that Independents were least likely to support social distancing rules. Here again we find that Independents are most skeptical of their ability to bear with the lockdown until August. Despite the general perception that Trump-supporting Republicans are most opposed to the lockdowns, Republicans are, on balance, more likely to say they can live with it until August. This is likely the result of age difference, as Democrats tend to be younger and more impatient with lockdown policies.

Americans are not restless yet regarding the lockdown policies - a majority believes that they can live through it until August. However, August is a long way ahead and a lot of voters are already anxious and depressed. There is a real possibility that large numbers who report increased depression and who worry for their mental and physical health will grow to majorities much earlier than that.

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