Nearly 60% of likely voters at least somewhat agreed (30% strongly agreed/29% somewhat agreed the 2020 presidential election should be suspended if the coronavirus pandemic gets worse between now and November, while 41% at least somewhat disagreed (25% strongly disagreed/16% somewhat disagreed). A majority of almost every sub-group surveyed at least somewhat agreed with this notion, including Democrats (53% at least somewhat agreed/47% at least somewhat disagreed).
The sub-groups that agreed the most with suspending the 2020 presidential election, if the coronavirus pandemic gets worse, were urban voters in large cities (67% at least somewhat agreed/33% at least somewhat disagreed), Catholics (66% at least somewhat agreed/34% at least somewhat disagreed), voters with college degrees (60% at least somewhat agreed/40% at least somewhat disagreed), Hispanics (68% at least somewhat agreed/32% at least somewhat disagreed) and Republicans (69% at least somewhat agreed/31% at least somewhat disagreed). Voters in the South (64% at least somewhat agreed/36% at least somewhat disagreed) were much more inclined to agree with canceling the presidential election, if the pandemic gets worse, than voters living in the Central/Great Lakes region (53% at least somewhat agreed/47% at least somewhat disagreed).
Two important demographics that could positively impact the 2020 presidential election for the Democratic party are younger voters aged 18-29 and women. It's possible their turnout could increase at the polls as a referendum on President Trump and his handling of the pandemic.
When we examine age there were differences in generational attitudes when it came to suspending the 2020 presidential election due to the coronavirus. Voters under the age of 55 were more likely to agree with suspending the election, especially those aged 23-39 (65% at least somewhat agreed/35% at least somewhat disagreed). Voters aged 55+were more likely to disagree with suspending the presidential election (45% at least somewhat agreed/55% at least somewhat disagreed).
There were slight differences of opinion among men and women: men (62% at least somewhat agreed/38% at least somewhat disagreed) were more likely to agree that the election should be cancelled if the pandemic gets worse than women (56% at least somewhat agreed/44% at least somewhat disagreed), who in turn were more likely to want to go to the polls, despite there not being any clear indication of how people will be able to cast their ballots in November. Could this mean a record turnout for women?
There were also opposing views about suspending the presidential election among men and women and where they lived. Two-thirds of urban men (67% at least somewhat agreed/33% at least somewhat disagreed) agreed with canceling the 2020 presidential election, while urban women were more likely to have disagreed (56% at least somewhat agreed/44% at least somewhat disagreed).
Majorities of both suburban women (54% at least somewhat agreed/46% at least somewhat disagreed) and suburban men were in agreement about suspending the presidential election (51% at least somewhat agreed/49% at least somewhat disagreed). When it came to rural environs, women (59% at least somewhat agreed/41% at least somewhat disagreed) felt the presidential election should be canceled if the coronavirus pandemic gets worse, while rural men felt less confident about holding the election in November, especially if the pandemic continues to spiral out of control (48% at least somewhat agreed/52% at least somewhat disagreed).
Conclusions
Republicans agreed the most with suspending the presidential election in November if the pandemic gets worse. It could be a combination of wanting Trump to win re-election and/or they are generally scared about contracting the coronavirus. In another of our poll questions Republicans were more likely to say they can live with the lockdown until August than Democrats.
Younger voters have expressed more restlessness with the lockdown and indicated experiencing increased depression and anxiety due to the current conditions put in place because of the Covid-19 outbreak. Thus, it's no surprise they are skeptical about holding the presidential election if the pandemic gets worse. But if Democrats are expecting the younger voters to come out in droves as a referendum on Trump, another wave of the virus in the fall could hamper their plans.
Could the stubbornness of older voters play to Trump's advantage if we have an election and another outbreak of Covid-19? A majority of older voters aged 55+ were not okay with suspending the presidential election in November.
How everything plays out the rest of the year is up in the air right now-the reopening of the economy, the intensity of the virus, the mental health of the nation, the re-opening of schools and the list goes on. With all of this uncertainty reigning supreme it's no wonder the unthinkable (canceling a presidential election) is a possibility right now for many voters.