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4 States

Trump Approval


Trump Approval
4 States - Swing Voters

US Direction

Biden is crushing Cuomo in the latest Zogby Poll®; Democratic voters like Cuomo but aren't ready to abandon Biden, yet

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The presumptive Democratic nominee, former vice president, Joe Biden is leading Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, in a hypothetical nationwide primary, more than three to one (Biden leads Cuomo 61% to 19%), putting to rest any notion that Andrew Cuomo can be the nominee, for now. The remaining surveyed voters wanted someone else (11%) and were not sure (9%). It's not official for Joe Biden until some version of the Democratic National Convention is held and delegates are awarded to the official nominee. In 2016 there was banter of a bait and switch at the Republican National Convention, but that was wishful thinking, as no one could deny Donald Trump the Republican nomination, which he had earned. This time around, it might be hard to deny the former vice president what seems to be rightfully his, at the moment.

Governor Cuomo is the media darling right now, but think how hypothetical nominee Andrew Cuomo would resonate with voters in Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin? Will voters respond positively to his liberal record i.e., he champions government intervention in markets, passed the strictest gun laws in the nation, and he has been accused of having little empathy for small businesses. This could play well with union voters in some of the "rust belt," states, but can Cuomo win over the swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016; it's hard to see it right now. The closer we get to the Democratic National Convention, who Biden picks for vice president, and how Biden looks and responds during the remainder of the pandemic will determine if Biden will have any competition from the likes of Cuomo or other politicians.

Now to the poll! If Cuomo were within ten points it might be troubling to Biden, but Biden is dominating Governor Cuomo with almost every sub-group among likely Democratic primary voters. Biden leads Governor Cuomo among men (Biden leads Cuomo 65% to 18%), women (Biden leads Cuomo 58% to 20%), African Americans (Biden leads Cuomo 78% to 9%), Hispanics (Biden leads Cuomo 56% to 28%), younger voters aged 18-29 (Biden leads Cuomo 60% to 17%), urban voters-small, medium and large city voters (Biden leads Cuomo 62% to 20%) suburban voters (Biden leads Cuomo 61% to 17%), Catholics (Biden leads Cuomo 66% to 18%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Biden leads Cuomo 70% to 21%), and weekly Amazon shoppers (Biden leads Cuomo 63% to 25%).

Takeaways

With Bernie Sanders endorsing Joe Biden, the former vice president moves one step closer to the Democratic nomination and a showdown with Trump in November.

Is it wishful thinking or could Andrew Cuomo sneak his way into the nomination? Some recent polls showed Andrew Cuomo nearly tied with or leading Biden in a primary. Based on our numbers and how far Biden is ahead, it would take some serious allegations or gaffes by Biden, so it's not entirely impossible Biden could lose the nomination, but highly unlikely.

Cuomo has the attention of the media and voters nationwide, but so did Rudy Giuliani on 9/11 as mayor of NYC. He was the face of the city's response to the worst terrorist attack on American soil, and became a major figurehead on the national stage. Cuomo is dealing with the hardest hit area in the world by the coronavirus pandemic, so it's only right he is getting a lot of media attention. Only time will tell if he is crowding Joe Biden and taking away his spotlight as the Democratic nominee.

Joe Biden will have to save his best for last because so far he has not had many great sound bites on the campaign trail, and has a looming sexual assault allegation hanging over his head. "Say it ain't so, Joe" is going to have to become "Scranton Joe" really quick!

 

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