What are the kitchen table issues for the 2020 presidential election? Healthcare helped Democrats take back the House of Representatives in 2018, and was the number one issue impacting voters' decisions according to exit polls that year.
Healthcare is an issue the Democratic primary candidates have seized on. The progressive wing of the party wants "Medicare for all," while some in the middle say that a government option is appropriate and voters should be able to keep their insurance if they like it.
These voices sound very familiar, and echo some of the talking points Democrats pitched to the public while selling "Obama Care" in 2010. One thing is for sure, healthcare will play front and center in the next election, along with safety, immigration and the economy. Who has the advantages, President Trump or Democratic leaders?
On safety, voters trust Trump more; he leads 44% to 41% versus Democratic leaders, while 14% are not sure. Not surprisingly, both the president and Democratic leaders fare well with their own bases. Elections are won with strong performances among one's base and swing voters. On the issue of safety, more specifically keeping America safe, Democrats have the advantage with Independents (Democratic leaders 35% vs. Trump 32%, 33% unsure), while the president performs well with urban voters in large cities (Trump 48% vs. Democratic leaders 42%), suburban voters (Trump 43% vs. Democratic leaders 42%) and suburban women (Trump 43% vs. Democratic leaders 41%). The President and Democratic leaders were also statistically tied among Millennials (Trump 43% vs. Democratic leaders 44%) and Generation X voters (Trump 42% vs. Democratic leaders 42%). A bloc of voters the president is continuing to perform well among is college educated voters (Trump 49% vs. Democratic leaders 40%). Last time it was non-college educated voters, this time around it might be college educated voters who help seal Trump's victory.
On the issue of the economy, President Trump has a larger lead when compared to Democratic leaders. He leads 48% to 40% and 13% are not sure. Both men (Trump 53% vs. Democratic leaders 37%) and women (Trump 43% vs. Democratic leaders 42%) trust Trump more on economic policy, although in varying degrees, but so do Independents (Trump 37% vs. Democratic leaders 36%), suburban voters (Trump 47% vs. Democratic leaders 40%), suburban women (Trump 47% vs. Democratic leaders 41%), and college educated voters (Trump 52% vs. Democratic leaders 38%). Democrats hold large advantages with younger voters aged 18-29 (Democratic leaders 57% vs. Trump 30%) and minorities-African Americans (Democratic leaders 67% vs. Trump 17%) and Hispanics (Democratic leaders 48% vs. Trump 36%). Trump's economic policies do appear to resonate with some younger voters, as Trump has a slight advantage in trust with Millennials (Trump 45% vs. Democratic leaders 44%).
The president plans to make immigration (Trump 45% vs. Democratic leaders 44%, 11% not sure) a wedge issue again. His fight for a border wall and issuance of travel bans has been highly divisive, but these issues propelled Trump to victory in 2016. Can they help him once again? When it comes to party, gender, age, and race, the issue of immigration is black and white. How the issue is received by the voters in the middle is what matters, mainly Independents, suburban voters, suburban women and college educated voters. Democrats are trusted by Independent (Democratic leaders 42% vs. Trump 35%) and suburban voters (Democratic leaders 46% vs. Trump 43%) more on immigration than Trump, but Trump is trusted more on immigration policy among college educated voters (Trump 50% vs. Democratic leaders 42%) and both are tied among suburban women (Trump 44% vs. Democratic leaders 44%). This is a close one!
The Democrats do best on the issue of healthcare (Democratic leaders 46% vs. Trump 39%, 16% not sure), but does that mean voters want Medicare for all? That's a tough one and in swing states, the answer is most likely no, as most voters do not approve of a blanket government healthcare solution such as Medicare for all. This issue strikes a chord and resonates not only with the Democratic base, but also with swing voters: Independents (Democratic leaders 44% vs. Trump 26%), suburban voters (Democratic leaders 48% vs. Trump 37%) and suburban women (Democratic leaders 44% vs. Trump 39%) all trust Democratic leaders more than Trump. The president does receive a slight edge with college educated voters when it came to trust on healthcare policy (Trump 44% vs. Democratic leaders 43%).
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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
2/13/20 – 2/14/20
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1340 likely voters in the US.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 36% Democrat, 36% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1340 is +/- 3.7 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
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About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.