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The Zogby Poll®: Bernie Sanders is the frontrunner! Michael Bloomberg powers into second place

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dem primary021720

In our new Zogby Analytics Democratic Primary Poll of 732 likely voters nationwide, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) receives nearly a quarter (24%) of support, followed by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has jumped into second place with 20% support, and has surpassed the damaged candidacy of former vice president Joe Biden (18%), who now occupies third place. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) received 10% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg followed close behind with 9%. The next closest candidate is Amy Klobuchar, coming off a strong performance in the New Hampshire primary, with 5%, and six percent of likely voters were not sure which candidate they would vote for. Also, 2% of Democratic Primary likely voters chose "someone else."

Sanders continued to do well with Hispanics (Sanders 24%, Biden 20% and Bloomberg 18%) and younger voters aged 18-29 (Sanders 41%, Warren 13%, Biden 12% and Bloomberg 12%), Millennials (Sanders 34%, Biden 15%, Bloomberg 14%, and Warren 11%) and women (Sanders 24%, Bloomberg 19% and Biden 15%), while there was a close race for the support of African American voters (Biden 27%, Bloomberg 26%, and Sanders 25%) among the top three-Sanders, Bloomberg and Biden. Where Bloomberg makes his presence felt is with swing voters, such as, moderates (Bloomberg 26%, Sanders 22% and Biden 18%) Catholics (Bloomberg 20%, Sanders 19% and Biden 19%), and college educated voters (Sanders 21%, Bloomberg 20%, Biden and Warren 14% each and Buttigieg 12%).

Other demographic sub-groups Bloomberg polled in first or second place were among: urban voters in large cities (Bloomberg 22%, Sanders 21% and Biden 17%), voters aged 50-64 (Bloomberg 26%, Sanders 20% and Biden 14%), suburban voters (Sanders 30%, Bloomberg 21% and Biden 18%), rural voters (Sanders 21%, Bloomberg 20% and Biden 18%), suburban women (Sanders 26%, Bloomberg 25% and Biden 16%), weekly Walmart shoppers (Sanders 24%, Bloomberg 21% and Biden 19%) and weekly Amazon shoppers (Sanders-27%, Bloomberg 17%, Biden 15% and Buttigieg 14%).

The Takeaway

Bernie Sanders continues his winning ways and is now the national frontrunner. With Michael Bloomberg's ascendancy into the second slot in the national polls, the campaigns of Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg have suffered tremendously. Biden is hurting too, but is banking heavily on strong support from African American voters in South Carolina, and if he doesn't win it outright his campaign could be game over. Bloomberg is taking all of Biden's support among key groups: mainly women, moderates, older voters, suburban voters, suburban women and college educated voters.

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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology

Likely Democratic Primary Voters
2/13/20 – 2/14/20

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 732 likely Democratic Primary voters in the U.S.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 732 is +/- 3.6 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

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About Zogby Analytics:

Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.

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