Methodology
Zogby Analytics conducted an online nationwide survey of 882 likely voters in the U.S. from 1/15/20 - 1/16/20. Of the 882 likely voters, 438 were likely Democratic Primary voters. In addition to the nationwide sample, Zogby also conducted over-samples of 357 African American likely voters, 383 Hispanic likely voters, and 336 Asian American likely voters.
Horse races
Trump vs. Biden
Trump receives high approval ratings from his base: men (Trump leads 53% to 42%), older voters aged 50+ (Trump leads 51% to 44%), union members (Trump leads 60% to 36%), consumers such as weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 55% to 37%), weekly Amazon Shoppers (Trump leads 55% to 42%), and NASCAR fans (Trump leads 57% to 38%). The president also does well with swing voters, such as, suburban voters (Trump leads 49% to 44%), suburban women (Trump leads 50% to 42%), and Generation X voters (Trump leads 51% to 47%).
Where Biden tightens things against Trump is with Independents (Biden leads Trump 41% to 39%), voters aged 18-29 (Biden leads 47% to 37%), voters aged 25-34 (Biden leads 50% to 38%), non college educated voters (Trump leads 45% to 44%), small city voters (Biden leads 50% to 40%), voters aged 30-49 (both tied at 46%), voters who recently lost a job (Biden leads 48% to 47%) and Catholic voters (Trump leads 50% to 48%)
Among the over-sample of 383 Hispanic likely voters all the major Democratic Primary challengers: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bloomberg beat Trump overwhelmingly, with almost two thirds support, except for Buttigieg and Klobuchar who receive 57% and 59%, respectively..
Also, in the Hispanic oversample, voting blocs who typically lean Trump: weekly Walmart Shoppers, NASCAR fans, weekly Amazon Shoppers, Southern voters, voters age 30-49, union members, and men, Trump never receives more than 39% when matched against his Democratic counterparts, but these numbers are higher than the 28% Trump received from Hispanics in 2016.
One interesting demographic to look at is one of the economic indicators we asked likely voters: "considering your personal finances the last four years, are they better off, worse off or about the same?" Of the over-sample of Hispanics, who said their personal finances are better off, Trump is tied, losing within the margin of error, or leading within the margin of error against all major Democratic challengers (Trump leads Biden 47% to 46%; Sanders leads Trump 49% to 47%; Trump leads Klobuchar 49% to 43%; Warren and Trump are tied at 47%; Trump leads Buttigieg 48% to 41%; Trump and Bloomberg are tied at 46%).
Trump vs. Sanders
President Trump is winning barely against the self-avowed socialist Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders. Both men are tied with Independents (41%). The big problem for Sanders is that he does not do as well with women as Biden (Sanders leads 47% to 42%). As for age, Sanders does best with younger voters aged 18-29 (Sanders leads 50% to 37%) and aged 18-24 (Sanders leads 51% to 39%) but Trump makes the race close with voters aged 35-54 (both tied at 47%) and aged 30-49 (Sanders leads 47% to 45%).
As has been the case the last few months, Trump's numbers have steadily climbed among suburban voters (Trump leads 49% to 41%) and suburban women (Trump leads 50% to 37%). The president is also winning a majority of consumer voters- weekly Walmart Shoppers (Trump leads 55% to 36%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 54% to 37%) and weekly Amazon Shoppers, (Trump leads 55% to 41%) while Sanders does well with urban voters such as large city (Sanders leads 50% to 40%) and medium city voters (Sanders leads 53% to 42%), except urban men (Trump leads 51% to 45%) who typically lean Trump.
Coincidentally, since the House impeachment and Senate trial, Trump's job approval rating and numbers against his Democratic rivals have improved with Independents, suburban voters and suburban women.
Trump vs. Warren
When Trump is matched against Senator Elizabeth Warren, Trump does well with his base, as does his Democratic counterpart, but Trump separates himself in that he wins with swing voters, such as, Independents (Trump leads 44% to 35%), suburban voters (Trump leads 49% to 40%), suburban women (Trump leads 51% to 39%), and consumers: weekly Walmart Shoppers (Trump leads 58% to 34%), weekly Amazon Shoppers (Trump leads 57% to 40%), and NASCAR fans (Trump leads 56% to 37%). The president continues to do well with Catholic voters (Trump leads 51% to 43%) and Generation X voters (Trump leads 51% to 44%).
Warren's issue is she cannot attract swing voters like Biden and does not excite younger voters as much as Sanders. She leads Trump among Millennials, born 1980-1995 (Warren leads 46% to 38%) and voters aged 18-24 (Warren leads 48% to 35%) but she does not muster enough cross-over appeal to win over Independents and suburban women versus Trump.
Due to a healthy economy at the moment, Trump is doing well with voters whose personal finances are better off compared with four years ago. This could be an important factor that will play into how voters cast their ballots in the 2020 general election. The economy continues to be the most important presidential issue in our polls.
Trump vs. Klobuchar
Trump is beating Senator Klobuchar by seven points, 47% to 40%. Senator Klobuchar's problem is that she does not excite the Democratic base, such as, younger voters aged 18-24 (Klobuchar leads 43% to 39%) and aged 18-29 (Klobuchar leads 44% to 38%), women (Klobuchar leads 43% to 42%), Hispanics (Klobuchar leads 59% to 28%) and African Americans (Klobuchar leads 68% to 16%). Compared to her other Democratic counterparts (except Buttigieg) she does not poll as well among Hispanics and African Americans.
Another factor working against Klobuchar is her current support among women voters. Despite being one of two women vying for the Democratic nomination, Klobuchar does not receive great support from women, which results in Trump and Klobuchar being almost tied among all women voters (Klobuchar leads 43% to 42%), and Trump wining easily among suburban women, 47% to 40%.
Trump vs. Buttigieg
President Trump versus Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana mirrors the races with Warren and Klobuchar. Trump performs well among young voters, especially among Generation Z voters (Buttigieg leads 41% to 38%), voters aged 18-29 (Buttigieg leads 42% to 37%) and voters aged 18-24 (Buttigieg leads 40% to 38%). Buttigieg and Trump are nearly tied with women (Buttigieg leads 43% to 42%).
Buttigieg's problems in a potential match-up with Trump are two-fold. For one, he does not excite the Democratic base-younger voters, women, and African Americans, and secondly, Buttigieg gives up ground to Trump with swing voters--Trump beats Buttigieg among Independents (Trump leads 41% to 33%), suburban voters (Trump leads 46% to 40%)and suburban women (Trump leads 47% to 40%).
Trump vs. Bloomberg
Former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg does surprisingly well against Trump beating the president by two percentage points 45% to 43%. Bloomberg, unlike his Democratic rivals, performs well with Independents (Bloomberg leads 39% to 35%), suburban voters (both tied at 43%), suburban women (Bloomberg leads 42% to 41%), Catholics (Bloomberg leads 47% to 46%), and small city voters (Bloomberg leads 52% to 38%). All of these voting blocs are important in the upcoming election and to the re-election hopes of the president.
Bloomberg also blunts Trump's gains with some younger voters: those aged 25-34 (Bloomberg leads 50% to 33%) and aged 30-49 (Bloomberg leads 46% to 41%).
Democratic Primary
When it comes to the 2020 Democratic Primary, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden have really separated themselves and are in a dead heat with nearly a quarter of primary voters supporting each candidate. Michael Bloomberg has now jumped to double digit support and tied for second with Elizabeth Warren (both 11%). Pete Buttigieg (8%) and Andrew Yang (6%) represent the next tier; each receives below double digit support but remains relevant.
Currently, Joe Biden (38%) is leading Sanders (19%) and Elizabeth Warren (12%) among African Americans. Warren and Bloomberg are next with 11% and 9%, respectively. Sanders continues to receive high marks from Hispanics-Sanders leads Biden (30% to 23%) and Warren almost two to one (Sanders leads 30% to 16%). Interestingly, with all of the negative attention Bloomberg has received in the past with his stop and frisk policy in NYC, he still performs decently with Hispanics by receiving 13% and African Americans (9%). Sanders does the best with Independents (Sanders leads Biden and Buttigieg 30% to 15% and 12%, respectively) and voters under age 50 (Sanders leads Biden 34% to 18%).
Biden receives high marks from voters over age 50 (Biden leads Sanders 33% to 10%) and suburban voters (Biden leads Bloomberg and Sanders 21% to 18% and 16%, respectively) and rural voters (Biden leads Sanders and Bloomberg 25% to 20% and 14%, respectively). Bernie Sanders bests Joe Biden among likely voters in large cities (Sanders leads Biden and Warren 28% to 24% and 14%, respectively) and medium size cities (Sanders leads Biden and Bloomberg 27% to 20% and 12%, respectively).
The former vice president is leading his closest competitors among weekly Walmart shoppers (Biden leads Sanders and Bloomberg 25% to 20% and 14%, respectively), weekly Amazon shoppers (Biden leads Sanders and Warren 24% to 21% and 16%, respectively) and NASCAR fans (Biden leads Sanders and Bloomberg 24% to 22% and 13%, respectively).
Trump job approval
President Trump's job approval rating is very good at the moment, even as he deals with a Senate trial that could potentially remove him from office - a scenario that is very unlikely because Republicans control a majority of the Senate. The president performs very well with his base-men (58% at least somewhat approve/41% at least somewhat disapprove), voters age 50-64 (52% at least somewhat approve/47% at least somewhat disapprove), non-college educated voters (49% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove), union members (64% at least somewhat approve/34% at least somewhat disapprove), rural (61% at least somewhat approve/37% at least somewhat disapprove) and Southern voters (59% at least somewhat approve/39% at least somewhat disapprove). The President's numbers have also drastically improved with men compared to our previous polls.
The president also improved his job approval rating with Independents (45% at least somewhat approve/49% at least somewhat disapprove), and women (45% at least somewhat approve/52% at least somewhat disapprove). He also saw his numbers climb to the low forties with voters aged 18-29 (43% at least somewhat approve/52% at least somewhat disapprove) and aged 18-24 (Trump leads 42% at least somewhat approve/55% at least somewhat disapprove.
President Trump is also getting a decent approval rating among voters aged 25-34 (46% at least somewhat approve/50% at least somewhat disapprove) and aged 30-49 (53% at least somewhat approve/44% at least somewhat disapprove).
Where Trump has improved the most is with swing voters such as suburban women (49% at least somewhat approve/49% at least somewhat disapprove) and all suburban voters (49% at least somewhat approve/49% at least somewhat disapprove). Surprisingly he also has a majority job approval with large city voters (52% at least somewhat approve/46% at least somewhat disapprove).
U.S. Direction
U.S. direction represents how things are going in the country and during a presidency, and historically it tends to produce pessimistic numbers. To put this in perspective, during the end of Obama's first term, the U.S. direction number was as follows: 24% right direction, 63% wrong track and 13% not sure.
With Trump, numbers are split along gender and party. Men (55% right direction/42% wrong track) were much more optimistic than women (38% right direction/55% wrong track). Meanwhile, only 16% of Democrats thought the country was headed in the right direction, while 80% said it was on the wrong track. Conversely, almost as many Republicans thought the country was headed in the right direction (79%) versus being on the wrong track (18%).
Independents were somewhat split: 42% thought the U.S. was headed in the right direction and 48% said it was on the wrong track. Overall, over forty precent of most sub-groups chose right direction, including 43% of voters aged 18-24 and aged 18-29.
Voters living in large cities were very optimistic (50% right direction/46% wrong track), while suburban voters (45% right direction/48% wrong track) and suburban women (40% right direction/50% wrong track) were more subdued in their feelings about the direction of the U.S.
As expected, Hispanics (33% right direction/61% wrong track), African Americans (22% right direction/72% wrong track) and Asian Americans (37% right direction/58% wrong track) saw things differently when it came to the direction of the U.S., but the numbers among Asians and Hispanics were still higher than Obama's overall numbers during this same exact time during his first term.
The Takeaways
Michael Bloomberg steadily improved since our last poll. He is receiving 11% among all Democrats on a national level and beats Trump within the margin of error when they are matched up against each other. He also made significant strides with Independents, younger voters, suburban voters and consumers, such as weekly Walmart shoppers and NASCAR fans.
The president continues to receive a high approval rating near or slightly above 50% for the third straight poll. He has rebounded with Independents, women, suburban voters and suburban women.
The President's rebound with swing voters has no doubt helped him when matched-up against the potential Democratic nominees. The President beats Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and is tied with Biden.
U.S. direction is the best it's been in a long time, as 46% think the U.S. is headed in the right direction and 49% think things are off on the wrong track.
Trump does not have strong minority support, but many Hispanics say their personal finances are better off compared to four years ago, and among these likely voters Trump is polling very close or ahead of his Democratic rivals.