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Trump Approval

Trump Approval

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The Zogby Poll®: Trump's approval is decent in the "Peach State"; Bernie Sanders is beating Trump convincingly in Georgia; Trump is in close races with other Democratic rivals

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gatrumpapproval111319

In the state of Georgia, which was somewhat competitive in the 2016 presidential election, Trump's overall approval is decent-48% approve/50% disapprove - which is close to his national approval rating. He does well with certain sub-groups: voters aged 30+ (52% approve/47% disapprove), men (47% approve/51% disapprove), women (50% approve/48% disapprove), medium size city voters (47% approve/51% disapprove), small city voters (58% approve/42% disapprove), rural voters (63% approve/37% disapprove), NASCAR fans (64% approve/36% disapprove) and weekly Amazon shoppers (49% approve/51% disapprove).

The president did not fare so well with large city voters (35% approve/62% disapprove), African American voters (14% approve/83% disapprove), suburban voters (38% approve/58% disapprove), Millennials aged 18-29 (32% approve/64% disapprove) and weekly Walmart shoppers (45% approve/54% disapprove).

One of the trends that's emerged in our Georgia poll is that President Trump's support with men is not rock solid. When pitted against 2020 Democratic hopefuls, he receives less than 50% in every head to head match-up. Donald Trump is over-performing with women voters compared to men, both in his job approval rating and 2020 general election match-ups with Democratic candidates. Not winning a majority of men in a state like Georgia could give the president a big blow in the 2020 general election.

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Joe Biden is the candidate the establishment thinks has the best chance to beat Trump, and hopefully take away voters from Trump's coalition. In this poll, we do see elements of that scenario playing out. Biden is beating Trump among men (Biden leads 47% to 42%) and non-college educated voters (Biden leads 46% to 42%), both groups being a big part of the Trump coalition. Biden also does well with younger Millennials aged 18-29 (Biden leads 63% to 24%), capturing a whopping two-thirds of them. He also edges out Trump with Generation X voters aged 30-49 (Biden leads 45% to 43%), which is a group the president has made strong in roads with as of late.

Interestingly, Trump and Biden are tied at 45% each among women voters in the state of Georgia. But Biden also does well with swing voters, such as, Independents (Biden leads 48% to 31%), moderates (Biden leads 61% to 23%), and Generation X voters aged 35-54 (both tied at 46%).

When it came to where voters live, Biden dominates large cities (Biden leads 63% to 26%), and wins easily in the suburbs (Biden leads 49% to 39%). He also does well with consumer blocs, such as, weekly Walmart shoppers (Biden leads 47% to 40%) and Amazon shoppers (both tied at 43%). President Trump still wins convincingly with NASCAR fans (Trump leads 58% to 37%). Not surprisingly, Biden also dominates Trump among African Americans leading, 81% to 7%.

Trump does well with voters aged 50+ (Trump leads 53% to 39%), union voters (Trump leads 54% to 41%), voters living in small cities (Trump leads 54% to 36%) and rural areas (Trump leads 57% to 35%).

Although, Biden prevails by only a couple of points, 46% to 44% against Trump, he has chipped away at Trump's base, mainly men and non-college educated voters. Still, Biden will have to do more than just win over these voters; he will also need to win more union and rural voters if the Democratic nominee is going win in Georgia for the first time since Bill Clinton in 1992.

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In Georgia, Senator Bernie Sanders (VT-I) did the best against Trump, beating him by a five percent margin, 48% to 43%. It was no big surprise that Sanders dominates with the younger voters aged 18-29 (Sanders leads 70% to 21%). He also beats Trump with Generation X voters age 30-49 (Sanders leads 48% to 43%), while Trump won voters aged 50+ (Trump leads 53% to 39%).

Sanders cut into Trump's base by winning with men (Sanders leads 51% to 41%), non-college educated voters (Sanders leads 49% to 42%), and Independent voters (Sanders leads 56% to 28%). The senator from Vermont also did well with moderates (Sanders leads 56% to 28%), while also dominating among African American voters, receiving 83% support compared to only 5% for Trump.

Sanders also did very well with suburban voters (Sanders leads 53% to 38%) and won among consumer blocs, such as, weekly Walmart shoppers (Sanders leads 51% to 38%) and weekly Amazon shoppers (Sanders leads 53% to 41%). More importantly, Sanders made a break through with a big bloc of Trump voters: union voters (Sanders leads 49% to 47%).

Trump makes the potential general election match-up close by winning a majority of voters in the following categories: NASCAR fans (Trump leads 52% to 43%), voters living in small cities (Trump leads 56% to 37%) and rural areas (Trump leads 54% to 40%).

There are some areas where Trump and Sanders are neck and neck: women (both tied at 46%), union voters (Sanders leads 49% to 47%) and voters aged 35-54 (both tied at 46%). In order for Trump to win Georgia again, he will need to win more votes among the above mentioned groups and other important groups, i.e. NASCAR fans and rural voters, where his numbers are down compared to his figures nationally.

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Overall, President Trump narrowly beats Democratic frontrunner, Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA-D) 44% to 42%. Trump continues to do well with Georgia women, beating Warren 47% to 41%. Warren turns the tables and receives more support with men (Warren leads 43% to 42%), younger Millennials age 18-29 (Warren leads 54% to 29%), Independents (Warren leads 39% to 33%) and African Americans (Warren leads 73% to 8%).

Trump maintains support among his base by receiving more support from non-college educated voters (Trump leads 44% to 40%), small city voters (Trump leads 55% to 37%), rural voters (Trump leads 54% to 32%), Catholics (Trump leads 46% to 42%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 56% to 38%), and weekly Amazon shoppers (both tied at 41%).

Warren is doing damage to Trump, but not in the areas her other rivals, Biden and Sanders, are. Trump over-performs against Warren with suburban voters (Warren leads 43% to 42%), while Warren chips away at Trump's base and wins with weekly Walmart shoppers (Warren leads 44% to 40%) and union voters (Warren leads 46% to 38%).

As for the age of voters, Warren receives more support from voters under the age of 50 (Warren 46% to 37%), while inversely; Trump wins with voters aged 50+ (Trump leads 55% to 35%). Warren receives a majority of support from voters aged 18-29 (54% to 29%), while President Trump receives nearly two-thirds of support from voters age 65+.

Warren did not perform as well as Biden and Sanders among African Americans; she leads Trump 73% to 8%, while Biden and Sanders received support in the low to mid 80's from African American voters.

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When it came to Democratic candidates who are a level below the frontrunners, but still considered relevant, Trump had a much easier time with Mayor Pete (Trump leads Buttigieg 45% to 38%) than Senator Kamala Harris, whom he narrowly defeats 44% to 42%

Kamala Harris was able to make more in-roads with potential swing voters and Trump's coalition than Buttigieg-she actually wins with men (Harris leads 43% to 42%), but Trump does better than the Senator from California with women voters (Trump leads 46% to 41%).

Both Buttigieg and Harris at times tap into the Trump coalition, such as Buttigieg being tied with Trump among weekly Walmart shoppers (both tied at 41%) and Amazon shoppers (both tied at 42%), while Harris beating Trump with Independents (Harris leads 40% to 31%, 29% unsure), weekly Walmart Shoppers (Harris leads 46% to 40%) and weekly Amazon shoppers (both tied at 43%).

However, neither Buttigieg nor Harris are doing well against Trump with women, suburban voters and Generation X voters aged 30-49 and those aged 35-54. These are the groups that can tip the balance in favor of Democrats or Republicans come November 2020.

Please click here to view the methodology statement.

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