Do you approve or disapprove of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump? |
|
| Strongly approve | 41% |
| Somewhat approve | 12% |
| Somewhat disapprove | 11% |
| Strongly disapprove | 29% |
|
Not sure |
6% |
A majority (53%) of likely voters at least somewhat approved of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump, while 40% at least somewhat disapproved of the impeachment inquiry. Most voters had their minds made-up about the impeachment inquiry, as only 6% were not sure. In a shocking role reversal, one of the group's who support Trump the most, men-57% at least somewhat approve/38% at least somewhat disapprove, were more likely than women to have approved (50% at least somewhat approve/42% at least somewhat disapprove) of the impeachment inquiry.
There were some surprises with age. Older Millennials age 18-29 (67% at least somewhat approve/27% at least somewhat disapprove) approved of the impeachment inquiry into Trump, but a majority of older voters age 65+ (43% at least somewhat approve/55% at least somewhat disapprove) also supported the impeachment inquiry into President Trump.
Four in five Democrats at least somewhat approved of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump, with 65% strongly approving. Surprisingly, 29% of Republicans at least somewhat approved of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump, while 68% of Republicans at least somewhat disapproved of the impeachment inquiry. Independents approved of the impeachment inquiry; half at least somewhat approved of it, while 38% at least somewhat disapproved.
What's interesting with this question are majorities of some of Trump's biggest supporters: union voters (64% at least somewhat approve/32% at least somewhat disapprove), small city voters (47% at least somewhat approve/43% at least somewhat disapprove), urban men (64% at least somewhat approve/31% at least somewhat disapprove), NASCAR fans (55% at least somewhat approve/38% at least somewhat disapprove), weekly Walmart shoppers (58% at least somewhat approve/36% at least somewhat disapprove), weekly Amazon shoppers (66% at least somewhat approve/27% at least somewhat disapprove), NRA members (59% at least somewhat approve/40% at least somewhat disapprove), voters who sympathize with alt-right politics (70% at least somewhat approve/29% at least somewhat disapprove), southern voters (50% at least somewhat approve/44% at least somewhat disapprove), Catholics (58% at least somewhat approve/37% at least somewhat disapprove), and upper income voters whose household income is greater than $150k annually (63% at least somewhat approve/31% at least somewhat disapprove) were all in support of the impeachment inquiry.
Does this mean these same voters want President Trump impeached or removed from office? It's hard to say right now but we will get more into that topic in the next question. For now, it could mean they want all the facts presented to them, first and foremost.
There were groups that wanted to put the brakes on the impeachment inquiry, or who were split about the impeachment inquiry. These groups were suburban voters (47% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove), suburban women (45% at least somewhat approve/48% at least somewhat disapprove), Born Again Christians (42% at least somewhat approve/53% at least somewhat disapprove), rural voters (37% at least somewhat approve/56% at least somewhat disapprove), Protestant women (39% at least somewhat approve/55% at least somewhat disapprove), older voters age 50-64 (45% at least somewhat approve/50% at least somewhat disapprove) and voters 70+ (40% at least somewhat approve/58% at least somewhat disapprove).
| Do you support the impeachment of President Trump? |
|
| Yes | 47% |
| No | 41% |
|
Not sure |
12% |
More likely voters supported the impeachment of President Trump than didn't. It's not an overwhelming amount of voters who support impeachment but it appears to be growing and could signal trouble for the president down the road. Most sub-groups we surveyed supported the impeachment of President Trump. For instance, both men (47% yes/42% no) and women (48% yes/40% no) supported impeachment, as did younger voters age 18-29 (60% yes/28% no), but voters over the age of 50 did not support impeachment.
There were groups who strongly supported the impeachment of the president, such as, Democrats (76% yes/13% no), Hispanics (72% yes/20% no), African Americans (62% yes/27% no), voters who live in large cities (67% yes/26% no), college educated voters (53% yes/37% no), voters who earn more than $150k annually (52% yes/36% no), and Catholic voters (53% yes/38% no).
The problem for Trump is some of his most ardent supporters: NASCAR fans (48% yes/40% no), weekly Walmart shoppers (49% yes/39% no), weekly Amazon shoppers (59% yes/33% no), social networkers 51% yes/40% no) and union voters (57% yes/33% no) also supported the House of Representatives drawing-up articles of impeachment for President Trump.
The sub-groups who did not support impeachment were white voters (41% yes/47% no), Republicans (24% yes/71% no), conservatives (21% yes/69% no), voters age 65+ (36% yes/54% no) and 70+ (34% yes/56% no), voters whose household income is between $75k-$100k (41% yes/47% no), suburban voters (39% yes/46% no), suburban men (36% yes/51% no) and rural voters (32% yes/59% no).
There were also important groups that were split on the issue: voters without college degrees (43% yes/44% no), NRA members (50% yes/49% no), Independent voters (40% yes/37% no) and suburban women (41% yes/42% no), all of whom the president needs support from for his re-election bid in 2020.
Right now the president is dealing with one crisis after another and it's eroding his base of support, but it's not entirely over for him. For one, he would need two-thirds of Senators to vote him out of office and there is not overwhelming support for impeachment right now. On a national level, it's one thing to support or not support his impeachment, but it means a lot more where voters stand on impeachment in swing states. We will have to wait and see how this all plays out. It's going to be a long and ugly election season for sure!
|
Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump's inquiry, during his phone call with the |
|
| Strongly approve | 22% |
| Somewhat approve | 18% |
| Somewhat disapprove | 12% |
| Strongly disapprove | 34% |
|
Not sure |
14% |
As we have seen in the previous two questions, voters support the House of Representatives impeachment inquiry and the impeachment of President Trump. What's behind this sentiment is the whistle blower complaint about a phone conversation between Trump and the President of Ukraine. At the heart of the phone call was Trump's request to look into corruption committed by Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden. Some are accusing the President of bribing President Volodymyr Zelensky by possibly withholding important military aid if an investigation into the Bidens was not conducted. That might be a stretch, especially with the transcripts released. What is for sure is the circus that will continue for the next year. How will this damage the president and could it possibly derail his re-election in 2020?
Unlike the impeachment inquiry and the possible impeachment vote, the content of the president's call does not roil his base as much. Overall, more voters (46%) at least somewhat disapproved of Trump asking the Ukrainian president about corruption connected to the Bidens, while 40% at least somewhat approved of Trump's actions on the call. Most groups favorable to the president did approve of the call (strongly and somewhat approve combined). They were men (50% approve/40% disapprove), Generation X voters age 30-49 (46% approve/39% disapprove), Republicans (71% approve/15% disapprove), Conservatives (63% approve/24% disapprove), Born Again Christians (52% approve/31% disapprove), Catholics (51% approve/41% disapprove), voters who attend religious services more than once a week (64% approve/24% disapprove), voters whose household income is between $75-$100k (46% approve/43% disapprove) and more than $150k annually (53% approve/36% disapprove), voters who live in large cities (51% approve/39% disapprove), union voters (53% approve/33% disapprove), NASCAR fans (56% approve/36% disapprove), weekly Walmart shoppers (49% approve/39% disapprove), weekly Amazon shoppers (49% approve/40% disapprove), investor class voters (54% approve/41% disapprove), voters whose finances are better off than they were four years ago (59% approve/39% disapprove), urban men (56% approve/36% disapprove), urban parents (54% approve/36% disapprove) and creative class (STEM sector) voters (47% approve/42% disapprove).
The voters who most disapproved of Trump's inquiry, into investigating corruption, connected to the Bidens, were women (31% approve/52% disapprove), voters in the West (39% approve/49% disapprove), voters age 65+ (35% approve/54% disapprove) and 55-69 (35% approve/55% disapprove), Independents (28% approve/52% disapprove), liberals (29% approve/65% disapprove), African Americans (26% approve/60% disapprove), small city voters (29% approve/54% disapprove), suburban voters (36% approve/50% disapprove), suburban women (32% approve/53% disapprove) and suburban parents (25% approve/60% disapprove).
There were voters who were split about how they feel regarding Trump's call and his inquiry into corruption connected to the Bidens. They were older Millennials age 25-34 (42% approve/45% disapprove), Hispanics (44% approve/46% disapprove), Generation X voters age 35-54 (44% approve/40% disapprove) and rural voters (42% approve/42% disapprove).
| Regardless of who you support do you believe President Trump will win re-election in 2020? |
|
| Yes | 46% |
| No | 33% |
| Not sure | 21% |
Although voters support the impeachment inquiry and the impeachment of President Trump, it's not as black and white as it seems. The issue of how this impacts President Trump's presidency is quite gray, and the reason for that is voters we surveyed still think the president is going to win re-election in 2020. Could it be voters think that Trump can get away anything, maybe so, or that he has overcome extreme controversies in the past, or that in the end the Democrats might be overplaying their hand with impeachment, or possibly Democrats do not have an effective message in 2020? It could be none of these things or all of the above.
Nearly half of voters (47%) think President Trump will win re-election in 2020, while 41% say no, and it's not just his base! Look at the groups who think he is going to win a second term: men (55% yes/29% no), young Millennials age 18-29 (43% yes/38% no), Generation X voters age 30-49 (49% yes/30% no) and older voters age 65+ (47% yes/32% no), Independents (36% yes/29% no), all regions of the U.S., especially southern voters (52% yes/28% no), suburban voters (42%yes/34% no), large city voters (51% yes/32% no), union voters (58% yes/23% no), middle income voters whose household income is $75k-$100k (56% yes/32% no), and upper income voter whose household income is $150k+ (59% yes/26% no).
Some important sub-groups who are split on their opinion of whether Trump will win re-election in 2020 were women (37% yes/37% no), Hispanics (40% yes/41% no), moderates (37% yes/36% no) and suburban women (34% yes/37% no).
Conclusion
The public's sentiment toward Trump is a mixed bag. Although, a plurality might support impeachment of Trump, his approval numbers are still very high. We currently have Trump's job approval at 50% approve and 48% disapprove-October 3, 2019. And while people aren't crazy about him digging for dirt on Joe and Hunter Biden, more voters think he is going to win re-election in 2020. Especially, important swing voters and groups favorable to Democrats.
The public is divided, people are upset with Washington D.C. and it looks like Democrats will impeach the president. Will this end Trump? The numbers don't exactly support that theory, but things are only going to get crazier and more intense over the next year. Maybe this is the perfect storm for a Trump win in 2020. He has survived every crisis imaginable, and maybe he will become the first president to be impeached and re-elected. Sounds crazy, but in the case of Donald Trump, not that crazy.
Please click here to view the methodology statement.