Most sub-groups of likely voters in Ohio that were surveyed, trusted President Trump (49%) much more to grow the U.S. economy compared with Democratic leaders (34%), while nearly one fifth (17%) were not sure. What stands out about this question, is the importance that voters put on "the economy" when they vote. Most rate the economy the single most important issue that decides their vote in an election. Recently we asked this question, on our last nationwide survey in September, and a plurality (24%) of likely voters surveyed said the most important issue in deciding their vote in the 2020 presidential election was the economy, followed by immigration reform (14%) and trust/truthfulness (11%).
A decent number of Millennials aged 18-29 (44% President Trump/37% Democratic leaders), women (45% President Trump/35% Democratic leaders), Independents (36% President Trump/26% Democratic leaders), older voters aged 65+ (58% President Trump/30% Democratic leaders), small city voters (51% President Trump/36% Democratic leaders), union voters (53% President Trump/32% Democratic leaders), suburban voters (48% President Trump/34% Democratic leaders), and middle income to upper middle income voters, whose household income is $35k-$150k (53%-54% Trump/25%-34% Democratic leaders) had more trust in President Trump than Democratic leaders to grow the US economy.
Groups that do not typically support the president and groups that do support Trump: Generation X voters aged 30-49 (48% President Trump/35% Democratic leaders), moderates (41% President Trump/32% Democratic leaders), weekly Walmart shoppers (54% President Trump/31% Democratic leaders), weekly Amazon shoppers (47% President Trump/35% Democratic leaders), NASCAR fans (56% President Trump/35% Democratic leaders) and voters who have college degrees (51% President Trump/35% Democratic leaders) all trust President Trump more than Democratic leaders to grow the U.S. economy.
Still, there were some groups, who trusted Democratic leaders more to grow the U.S. economy, as opposed to the president. The following demographics favored Democratic leaders: Democrats (15% President Trump/74% Democratic leaders), liberals (17% President Trump/76% Democratic leaders), large city voters (38% President Trump/49% Democratic leaders), African American voters (15% President Trump/76% Democratic leaders), single voters (37% President Trump/45% Democratic leaders) and lower income voters whose household income is less than $25k annually (39% President Trump/43% Democratic leaders).
What does this mean in terms of Ohio come November 2020: Ohioans, including many swing voters, trust the economy to the President, and they think Trump doing a good job managing the U.S. economy. This will play heavily in the favor of President Trump come 2020. But Trump is not out of the woods completely. There is a "trade war" with China, rogue nuclear states like North Korea and Iran, and now the threat of impeachment!
Ohio voters are split on who can better keep America safe. President Trump had a slight lead over Democratic leaders when we posed this question to likely voters statewide in Ohio. The issue was split mainly along partisan lines: Men (44% President Trump/37% Democratic leaders) and older voters (aged 65+, 50% President Trump/35% Democratic leaders) were more favorable toward Trump, while women (37% President Trump/39% Democratic leaders) and younger voters (aged 18-29, 34% President Trump/42% Democratic leaders) had more trust in Democratic leaders when it came to the safety of the U.S.
Where things get interesting is with swing voters such as Independents, union voters and consumer blocs.
Independents were most un-sure (48%), while a small plurality (21% President Trump/31% Democratic leaders) felt Democratic leaders could keep America safe better than the president. When it came to ethnicity, whites (46% President Trump/32% Democratic leaders) favored President Trump, while African Americans (9% President Trump/74% Democratic leaders) were the complete opposite, and overwhelmingly sided with Democratic leaders when it came to the safety of America.
When it came to where Ohioans live, suburban (41% President Trump/37% Democratic leaders) and small city voters (40% President Trump/38% Democratic leaders) trust Trump to keep America safe, while large city voters (35% President Trump/51% Democratic leaders) believe Democrats are up to the task of keeping America safe more than President Trump.
There was some dissent among consumer blocs: NASCAR fans (48% President Trump/37% Democratic leaders) and weekly Walmart shoppers (46% President Trump/34% Democratic leaders) preferred President Trump to keep America safe more than Democratic leaders, while weekly Amazon shoppers (38% President Trump/47% Democratic leaders) thought Democrats were more adept in their ability to keep Americans safe.
Immigration policy, like safety, was an issue Ohioans were split on. Statistically, President Trump and Democratic leaders were tied when it came to who Ohio likely voters trusted the most on immigration policy. On this issue, the important swing voters, like Independents (29% President Trump/45% Democratic leaders), Millennials aged 18-29 (33% President Trump/56% Democratic leaders), women (38% President Trump/44% Democratic leaders), suburban voters (41% President Trump/44% Democratic leaders), large city voters (33% President Trump/58% Democratic leaders), weekly Amazon shoppers (37% President Trump/59% Democratic leaders) trusted Democratic leaders more when it came to the issue of immigration policy.
Trump’s base felt the opposite: Republicans (82% President Trump/8% Democratic leaders), white voters (48% President Trump/37% Democratic leaders), older voters aged 65+ (52% President Trump/37% Democratic leaders), men (48% President Trump/44% Democratic leaders), non-college educated voters (45% President Trump/42% Democratic leaders), rural voters (48% President Trump/37% Democratic leaders), and consumer blocs such as weekly Walmart shoppers (46% President Trump/44% Democratic leaders), and NASCAR fans (49% President Trump/42% Democratic leaders) trusted President Trump more than Democratic leaders on immigration policy.
Suffice it to say Democratic leaders are making inroads with swing voters on an important issue in the 2020 presidential election, especially in a state that is considered bellwether. Democrats might not be able to completely counter how voters are influenced by economic issues at the ballot box, but immigration policy might be an issue they can use to flip Ohio “blue,” which was consecutively won by President Barak Obama in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.
The Takeaways
The economy is the issue that matters the most in national and statewide elections. Even more important is that Ohio represents a bellwether state; how it goes, is how the nation goes in presidential elections. Which candidate wins Ohio, wins the presidency. Since 1896, this has been true in 29 out of 31 elections. No other state has a better winning percentage in choosing the president.
Right now Ohioans are enjoying the fruits of a decent economy and Trump owns it. So if it continues to hum until the election, he should be able to win re-election, that's if impeachment doesn't derail his re-election bid. When it came to the economy, most likely voters in Ohio, including swing voter groups-Independents, women, Millennials, suburban, and union voters, trusted Trump much more than Democratic leaders.
Ohioans are split on who is better keeping America safe, and who they trust on immigration policy. President Trump does better with swing voters such as Independents, and suburban voters on the issue of keeping America safe.
Democratic leaders turn the tables when it comes to who Ohioans trust more on immigration policy. On this issue, the important swing voters, like Independents, Millennials, women, suburban voters, and weekly Amazon shoppers trust Democratic leaders more than President Trump.
Ohio is a battleground state. It will be one of a handful of states that decide the 2020 general election. At the present moment, having a Republican governor, the infrastructure to campaign across the state, and a decent economy, it is advantage Trump, but Democrats have a chance to appeal to working class and middle class voters in rust belt cities and rural areas, especially if the economy sputters. The real test will be if they can find an effective message to appeal to voters in the Buckeye State.
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
Ohio Likely Voter
9/19/19 - 9/21/19
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 532 likely voters in Ohio.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 532 is +/- 4.3 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
##
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.