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The Zogby Poll®: Trump's job approval dips a little but still strong; Generation X stepping up their support for Trump; Most economically vulnerable think Trump can grow the economy more than Democrats

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trumpapproval092519

President Trump's job approval rating dipped slightly, down from 51% approve/47% disapprove (strongly and somewhat figures combined) to 48% approve/50% disapprove in the latest nationwide Zogby Poll, but overall it still remained solid in terms of his past numbers.

President Trump continues to do well with his base, men (53% approve/46% disapprove), older voters-aged 50-64 (46% approve/54% disapprove), non-college educated voters (50% approve/49% disapprove), white voters (54% approve/45% disapprove) and religious voters, such as, Born Again Christians (63% approve/36% disapprove) and Catholic voters (56% approve/44% disapprove).

Trump also had tremendous support among consumer blocs, such as, NASCAR fans (65% approve/35% disapprove), weekly Amazon Shoppers (55% approve/45% disapprove) and weekly Walmart shoppers (55% approve/44% disapprove). That's a given; nothing new here!

But what's keeping Trump 's numbers high are his inroads with older Millennials aged 25-34 (44% approve/54% disapprove), Generation X voters aged 30-49 (55% approve/43% disapprove), Hispanics (43% approve/56% disapprove), suburban females (42% approve/56% disapprove), suburban parents (55% approve/43% disapprove), STEM workers (54% approve/45% disapprove), Catholic women (55% approve/45% disapprove) and Protestant women (55% approve/44% disapprove). Overall, his numbers with women are pretty decent (44% approve/55% disapprove).

An area that Trump needs to work on is his seesaw relationship with Independent voters. Currently, he sits at 38% approve and 59% disapprove. The president's numbers have dipped with younger voters, aged 18-29 (40% approve/56% disapprove) and aged 18-24 (39% approve/56% disapprove), but he has made strides with large city voters (50% approve/48% disapprove), mainly driven by urban males (53% approve/46% disapprove), and continues to do decent with suburban voters (45% approve/54% disapprove) and small city voters (48% approve/52% disapprove). Where Trump is killing it is with union voters (66% approve/33% disapprove), who could play a huge role during the general election in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.

How has Trump been able to maintain high numbers in recent months? The charts below might have something to do with it.

usdirection092519

More voters in the United States feel the economy is heading in the right direction (47%) as opposed to the wrong track (43%). While the figures are close, if we dig deeper, we'll find majorities of important sub-groups think the current economy is headed in the right direction. A majority of Generation X voters aged 30-49 (54% right direction/39% wrong direction) and 35-54 (55% right direction/38% wrong direction) think the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction.

Other important groups who also think the economy is going in the right direction are middle and upper/ middle class voters whose household incomes are $50k-$100k annually (both 50% right direction). The positive sentiment among middle class voters bodes well for the president because they are voters the Democrats need to improve their chances in 2020. Trump's economy is also working for urban parents (56% right direction/40% wrong direction), suburban parents (49% right direction/40% wrong direction), large city voters (53% right direction/39% wrong direction), southern voters (54% right direction/40% wrong direction), central/great lakes voters (47% right direction/43% wrong direction), and union voters (65% right direction/29% wrong direction), who all believe the economy is headed in the right direction.

Groups that are torn about the direction of the economy but who are not completely turned off by it are women (41% right direction/46% wrong direction), suburban voters (44% right direction/45% wrong direction), older Millennials aged 25-34 (43% right direction/46% wrong direction) and Hispanics (42% right direction/55% wrong direction). These are all Democratic leaning groups that the president can chip away at to help himself get re-elected in 2020.

Areas the president will need to clean up with are Millennials aged 18-29 (38% right direction/49% wrong direction), Independents (33% right direction/52% wrong direction), and suburban women (38% right direction/46% wrong direction).

groweconomy092519

Voters think the president is in a better position to grow the U.S. economy. All economic numbers point to a pretty strong economy at the moment, although a potential recession does loom somewhere down the road. Why do voters feel President Trump is better at growing the economy? Under Trump millions of jobs have been created, unemployment is at a record low number and the millions of jobs that have been created have benefited women and minorities.

To that point, more women (43% Trump/41% Democratic leaders), older Millennials aged 25-34 (43% Trump/41% Democratic leaders), Generation X voters aged 30-49 (52% Trump/36% Democratic leaders) and 35-54 (55% Trump/34% Democratic leaders), moderates (42% Trump/38% Democratic leaders), Independents (39% Trump/32% Democratic leaders), suburban voters (47% Trump/39% Democratic leaders), suburban women (44% Trump/41% Democratic leaders), urban men (49% Trump/42% Democratic leaders), college educated (47% Trump/38% Democratic leaders) and non-college educated voters (49% Trump/40% Democratic leaders) all feel Trump can handle the economy better than Democrats.

Voters who are lower income (household incomes of $25-$35k) and middle class voters (household incomes of $50-$75k) also trust the president more than Democratic leaders to grow the U.S. economy--51% Trump/39% Democratic leaders and 49% Trump/39% Democratic leaders, respectively. Both of these groups are swing voters and can help decide the election for Democrats or President Trump.

Groups that trust Democratic leaders to the grow the U.S. economy more were Millennials aged 18-29 (37% Trump/45% Democratic leaders), Generation Z voters aged 18-24 (31% Trump/49% Democratic leaders), urban women (38% Trump/46% Democratic leaders), mid-size city voters (38% Trump/47% Democratic leaders) and voters whose household income is less than $25k (36% Trump/50% Democratic leaders).

Voters in the most economic vulnerable positions-lost a job (46% Trump/40% Democratic leaders), afraid of losing a job (48% Trump/37% Democratic leaders), at a job at that pays less (51% Trump/37% Democratic leaders) and gone without food for more than 24 hours (57% Trump/38% Democratic leaders) all trusted Trump more than Democratic leaders to grow the U.S. economy.

The Takeaways

Trump continues to have a strong job approval rating. To put this into context, when we tracked Obama's job approval, at the same point in his presidency, he was 41% approve/56% disapprove on 9/16/11. Trump is connecting with voters because the economy is doing well. More voters think the economy is headed in the right direction as opposed off on the wrong track, and they trust Trump more than Democratic leaders to grow the economy.

Trump is doing well with women: 44% approve of his job as president, while 55% disapprove. He will need to do better with suburban women, but he is winning over religious women and parents-Born Again women, Catholic women, urban parents and suburban parents. These groups also have high turn-out numbers at the polls

Another big surprise for Trump is his strong support among Generation X voters. Majorities of voters aged 30-49 and 35-54 approve of his job as president. Majorities of Generation X voters also think the economy is headed in the right direction, and trust Trump more than Democrats to grow the economy.

Trump needs to close the gap with Independents. His numbers there have dipped again. Still, just as is the case with suburban women, both groups trust him to grow the economy more than Democratic leaders. This is Trump's opening. Whether he can close the deal is still up in the air!

What's a troubling sign for Democrats is that the most vulnerable economic groups (lost a job, at a job that pays less, afraid of losing a job, and have gone without food for 24 hrs.) trust Trump more than Democratic leaders to grow the economy! If this sticks, Democrats might set their party back a whole generation.

Please click here to view the methodology statement.

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