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The Zogby Poll®: Biden bounces back; Trump in dead heats with Warren and Sanders; Voters feel Democrats have gone too far to the left

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trumpvsbiden092519

In our last nationwide Zogby Poll, President Trump (46%) and former vice president Joe Biden (45%) were statistically tied, but since last month, Biden has pulled ahead of Trump, leading 49% to 44%, with 8% of likely voters not being sure. Biden does well with voters under the age of 30-specifically Generation Z voters aged 18-24 and Millennials aged 18-29-Biden wins 56% to 30% and 52% to 33%, respectively.

Trump on the other hand, wins with Generation X voters aged 30-49 (Trump leads 49% to 45%) and 35-54 (Trump leads 49% to 44%). Trump has lost support among voters over 50 since our last poll; Biden bests Trump among voters aged 50-64 (Biden leads 51% to 42%) and 65+ (Biden leads 48% to 46%).

There were no surprises when it came to gender; Biden wins with women (Biden leads 52% to 40%) and Trump wins with men (Trumps leads 48% to 45%).

Trump has lost his advantages over Biden with Independents (Biden leads 51% to 31%), small city voters (Biden leads 47% to 46%), suburban voters (Biden leads 52% to 39%) and large city voters (Biden leads 50% to 43%). Where Trump does his damage against Biden is with rural voters (Trump leads 58% to 36%) and union voters (Trump leads 60% to 38%). Both groups were vital to Trump in 2016.

When it came to ethnicity, Biden wins with African Americans (Biden leads 77% to 15%) and Hispanics (Biden leads 62% to 35%).

Biden handily defeats Trump with voters in the East (Biden leads 55% to 36%), while Trump turns the tables in the South (Trumps leads 48% to 45%). Biden also won convincingly with likely voters in the Central/Great Lakes (Biden leads 51% to 46%) and West (Biden leads 45% to 42%).

With regards to unique sub-groups, President Trump lost some ground with consumer blocs, such as, weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 49% to 45%) and Amazon shoppers (Trumps leads 49% to 48%). The president does dominate with NASCAR fans; 61% backed Trump, while 35% supported Biden. Biden did very well with suburban women (Biden leads 55% to 39%).

Among the most economically vulnerable voters that we track-lost a job (Trump leads 63% to 32%), afraid of losing a job (Trump leads 50% to 43%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 50% to 44%) and gone without food for more than 24 hours (Trump leads 62% to 34%), all of them supported Trump over Biden.

trumpvssanders092519

President Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) were statistically tied among likely voters nationwide. Sanders polled very well with suburban women (Sanders leads 50% to 43%) and Hispanics (Sanders leads 65% to 31%). The president continues to lose ground with Independents, whereas in our previous poll the race between Sanders and Trump was tightly contested among Independents, Sanders now leads 50% to 33%. In large cities Sanders also defeated the president (Sanders leads 50% to 43%), but Trump defeats Sanders in small cities (Trump leads 46% to 43%).

Bernie Sanders follows the typical Democratic pattern when it comes to support among sub-groups we normally track: he dominates with younger voters (Sanders received 64% support among Generation Z), women (Sanders leads 49% to 42%), African Americans (Sanders leads 76% to 13%), mid-size city voters (Sanders leads 55% to 38%) and suburban voters (Sanders leads 49% to 43%)

Trump wins with men (Trump leads 49% to 43%), voters over 50, especially 65+ (Trump leads 51% to 40%), consumer blocs, such as, weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 50% to 42%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 51% to 43%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 61% to 34%), union voters (Trump leads 63% to 34%), urban parents (Trump leads 50% to 43%) and suburban parents (Trump leads 50% to 43%)

Again, among the most economically vulnerable voters that we track-lost a job (Trump leads 57% to 41%), afraid of losing a job (tied at 49%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 50% to 46%) and gone without food for more than 24 hours (Trump leads 57% to 38%), more of these voters supported President Trump than Senator Sanders.

trumpvswarren092519

In a hypothetical match-up for the 2020 presidential general election, President Trump narrowly defeats Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (Trump wins 46% to 45). Warren connects with women, Millennials and Generation Z voters. She polls 50% with women and also received a majority support of Millennials (Warren leads 51% to 34%) and Generation Z voters (Warren leads 54% to 29%).

Warren also does very well against the president with two important groups: Independents and suburban women. Warren is beating the president among suburban women (Warren leads 52% to 39%) and she does well with Independents (Warren leads 46% to 37%) when matched-up against Trump.

Trump wins with men (Trump leads 52% to 40%), Generation X voters aged 30-49 (Trump leads 50% to 41%) voters over 50, especially 70+ (Trump leads 58% to 39%), consumer blocs, such as, weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 50% to 40%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 62% to 32%), and weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 43%) union voters (Trump leads 58% to 36%), urban parents (Trump leads 52% to 41%) and suburban parents (Trump leads 46% to 41%).

Trump also continues to dominate the Democratic front runners among the most economically vulnerable voters that we track-lost a job (Trump leads 58% to 37%), afraid of losing a job (Trump leads 49% to 44%), at a job that pays less (Trump leads 50% to 43%) and gone without food for more than 24 hours (Trump leads 59% to 34%); each group backs Trump over Senator Warren.

Trump has recently tightened up races with the current Democratic frontrunners-Joe Biden and Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Many of the Democratic candidates have gone very far to the left and proposed gargantuan social programs-essentially promising a smorgasbord of "free stuff" that people even within the Democratic Party are skeptical the government can afford. Below we asked voters if they are turned off by the fact that Democrats have pivoted hard to the left and if they are skeptical of all these promises-universal Pre-K, Medicare for All, "The Green New Deal," savings bonds at birth, erasing student and medical debt, etc. -can actually be paid for.

Do you think the 2020 Democratic candidates for president have gone too far to the left and will not be able to implement their socialist policies because they are too expensive?

Yes     62%
No      38%

The only sub-groups to disagree that Democrats had gone too far to the left and that their policies weren't too expensive were Generation Z voters (44% yes/56% no), liberals (40% yes/60% no) and African Americans (39% yes/61% no).

When it came to important sub-groups and swing voters such as Independents (60% yes/41% no), Hispanics (56% yes/44% no), women (56% yes/44% no), suburban women (52% yes/48% no), Millennials (55% yes/45% no), union voters (75% yes/25% no), majorities in each sub-group felt the 2020 Democratic candidates had gone too far left and could not pay for everything they promised.

The Takeaways

Joe Biden is still alive when it comes to his polling against Trump. He has a small lead against Trump and is making inroads with key swing voters: mainly Independents, suburban women and weekly Amazon shoppers.

Trump is in dead heats with Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Both Warren and Sanders do very well with Independents, suburban voters, women, Millennials, and Generation Z voters.

When matched against Trump, Warren and Sanders do not do as well with suburban voters as does Joe Biden. Biden also appeals more to Amazon shoppers. Warren does not appeal to Independents as much as Sanders and Biden do.

Could Biden be doing better against Trump because Warren and Sanders are promoting socialist programs that the U.S. government cannot afford? This could indeed be the case as nearly two-thirds of likely voters think the 2020 Democratic candidates for president have gone too far to the left and will not be able to implement their socialist policies because they are too expensive. This sentiment was evident among almost all the demographic groups we tracked.

Please click here to view the methodology statement.

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