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24/7 Wall St. & Zogby Analytics BattleGround State Poll: Most Alaskan Voters Do Not Support Trump but Agree on Certain Issues

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More than half of voters in Alaska say they tell people they do not support President Trump but in private agree with him on certain issues. It’s astonishing that in a “red state,” people still feel afraid to support President Trump. This was especially true of full-time employees in the private sector, Generation X and middle/upper income households.

Economy/jobs (27%) was the most popular issue for Alaskans in 2020. This is followed by trust/truthfulness (18%), but economy beats out all the big Democratic issues, such as, racism (4%), gun control (2%), The Green New Deal (1%) and Medicare for all (10%); in some instances more than 10 to 1.

Sanders and Biden do the best against the President in a “red” state like Alaska because they make in-roads with women, younger voters, lower income voters and Independents, while Harris, Warren and Buttigieg lag with these groups.

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: even though I tell people I do not approve of Donald Trump, I personally agree with him on certain issues.

Strongly agree 24%
Somewhat agree 28%
Somewhat disagree 14%
Strongly disagree

34%

We asked Alaskans “do you tell people you do not approve of President Trump, but in private do personally agree with him on certain issues;” a majority of Alaskan likely voters said they at least somewhat agreed with the statement, while 48% disagreed (14% strongly disagreed, 34% somewhat disagreed). The question is something we currently track nationwide and regionally, and represents a way at trying to examine if some voters are afraid to admit they might agree with the president, even if they do not personally approve of him, which could also represent “silent” support for the president that is hard to identify with just the horse race or issue polling questions.

In our Alaska poll most likely voters surveyed at least somewhat agreed with the idea of “silently” supporting Trump, but there were a few groups who deviated from the norm: full-time employees in the private sector (61% agreed/39% disagreed), Generation X—age 30-49 (60% agreed/40% disagreed); voters aged 35-54 (63% agreed/37% disagreed) and upper/middle income voters whose total household income is $75K-$99K annually (62% agreed/38% disagreed). These groups were more likely to agree with the above statement that they are likely to tell people they do not agree with Trump, while silently supporting the president on certain issues in private.

Women (43% agreed/57% disagreed) were more likely than men (65% agreed/35% disagreed) to disagree they tell people they do not approve of Trump, while supporting him in private. When it came to age, Millennials aged 18-29 (47% agreed/53% disagreed) were more likely to disagree they “silently” support Trump than older voters—aged 50-64 (57% agree/43% disagree).

Independents (52% strongly and somewhat agree combined, 49% strongly and somewhat disagree combined) were less prone to feeling they had to hide their support of Trump on certain issues than Republicans (73% strongly and somewhat agree combined, 27% strongly and somewhat disagree combined). Republicans were the most likely to agree about hiding their support of Trump on certain issues. This is fascinating because Alaska is a “red state.”

When you are deciding for whom you are going to vote for President of the United States in 2020, what issue influences your decision the most? (Choose only one)

Economy/Job 27%
Trust/truthfulness 18%
Immigration reform 11%
Medicare for all 10%
Corruption 5%
Ensuring private health care 4%
Taxes/regulations 4%
Racism 4%
Terrorism 3%
Gun violence 2%
Income equality 2%
The Green New Deal 1%
Temperament 1%
Other, specify 8%

For most sub-groups, the top four issues deciding whom Alaskans are going to vote for in 2020 are: the economy/jobs—27%, trust/truthfulness—18%, immigration reform—11%, and Medicare for all—10%. The least important issues to Alaskan voters when they cast their ballots in 2020 were gun violence (2%), income inequality (2%), temperament (1%), and The Green New Deal (1%).

Trust/truthfulness was a slightly more important issue among Baby Boomers aged 50-64 (26%) and Anchorage residents (23%). The economy/jobs was most important to full-time employees in the private sector (43%), men (33%), Baby Boomers aged 50-64 (36%), Republicans (33%) and Independents (31%).

Twenty three percent of women chose economy/jobs as their most important issue in 2020, followed closely by trust/truthfulness (20%). A third of men (33%) said economy/jobs was the most important issue in deciding their vote for president in 2020, while three separate issues—Medicare for all (9%), immigration reform (13%) and trust/truthfulness (16%) were the next most important for men in 2020.

Older voters aged 65+ were most likely to be concerned with immigration reform (21%) and Medicare for all (20%) while younger Millennials (aged 18-29) were most concerned with the economy/jobs (29%). In Alaska, Millennials were the least likely to say that gun violence (1%) was the most important issue for them in 2020.

2020 Trump vs. Democratic Contenders in AK and WA

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, who would you vote for?

 % Alaska% Washington
Republican Donald Trump 45 31
Democrat Joe Biden 40 52
Not sure 15 17

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders, who would you vote for?

 % Alaska% Washington
Republican Donald Trump 45 32
Democrat Bernie Sanders 38 54
Not sure 17 14

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, who would you vote for?

 % Alaska% Washington
Republican Donald Trump 48 33
Democrat Kamala Harris 30 47
Not sure 23 20

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?

 % Alaska% Washington
Republican Donald Trump 48 33
Democrat Elizabeth Warren 32 48
Not sure 20 20

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Pete Buttigieg, who would you vote for?

 % Alaska% Washington
Republican Donald Trump 45 32
Democrat Pete Buttigieg 31 44
Not sure 24 24

Former vice president, Joe Biden, is within the margin of error in a head to head race with Trump in Alaska (Trump leads 45% to 40%). Biden does well with Millennials (45% to 33%, Biden wins) and women (45% to 38%, Biden wins). Trump does best with voters over the of age 50, men and voters whose household income is over $50K, while Biden wins with voters whose household income is under $35K. Among Independents, the race was very close, Trump edges out Biden 39% to 36%.

In the state of Washington, voters decidedly favored Biden with more than half of their support to Trump’s third of support. This was true amongst all sub-groups surveyed.

When we match Trump and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the race followed a similar pattern as with Joe Biden as the nominee. Sanders beat Trump convincingly among women (45% to 37%, Sanders wins) Millennials (55% to 33%, Sanders wins), Generation Z voters (51% to 36%, Sanders wins), and voters whose household income is less than $50K, while Trump wins with his base of men (56% to 28%, Trump wins), Independents (39% to 36%, Trump wins), voters over the age of 50, and those whose household income is more than $50K. In a head to head match-up in Washington, Sanders beat Trump convincingly by 22 percentage points, 54% to 32%.

In Alaska, Trump does well against, California Senator, Kamala Harris (D-CA). He wins 48% to 30%, while 23% are not sure. Unlike her rivals, Biden and Sanders, Harris does not make in-roads with two important Democratic groups—women (Both Trump and Harris are tied at 38%) and Millennials (Trump leads 37% to 33%). She also does not strike a chord with Independents (Trump leads 42% to 28%) as well as Alaskan voters whose household income is less than $50K annually. The story is much different in Washington as she defeats Trump 47% to 33%, but receives less than 50%, unlike her closest rivals Biden and Sanders.

When it came to how Alaskan voters were going to vote in the 2020 presidential general election, President Trump handily defeats Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (Trump wins 48% to 32%) and South Bend Indiana Mayor, Pete Buttigieg (45% to 31%). Both Warren and Buttigieg have the same problem as Harris in that they do not connect with women, Millennials and Independents the way Biden and Sanders do. On the other hand, both Warren and Buttigieg, win by at least double digits against Trump in the “blue” state of Washington, 48% to 33% and 44% to 32%, respectively.

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 321 likely voters in Alaska 7/22/19 – 8/9/19.

Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1265 likely voters in Washington 7/22/19 – 8/1/19.

Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.

Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 321 is +/- 5.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1265 is +/- 2.8 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.

Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.

About 24/7 Wall St., LLC

24/7 Wall St. is among the largest independent financial, business, and economic websites in America. The site also covers city, state and national demographic trends. Founded in 2006, 24/7 Wall St. is based in NYC.

About Zogby Analytics

Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.

The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby’s dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.

By 24/7 Wall St. Staff and Zogby Analytics

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