Trump is winning with urban voters and has record support with African Americans
A new Zogby Poll® of 897 likely voters nationwide in the U.S., conducted from 8/9/19-8/12/19, with a margin of sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, shows President Trump's job approval rating at its best since we've been tracking the figure. A separate poll of adults in Canada was conducted 8/9/19-8/11/19 with a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
President Trump's job approval has continued to rise the last few months. We previously saw a post Mueller report bounce and a strong economy has definitely helped him. But that's not the complete story as to why the president has reached a peak in his job approval rating. It's true Trump is riding high on positive economic news-a record high stock market, low unemployment, and solid GDP growth at home. It's also very plausible he is benefiting from poor performances by the Democratic presidential candidates who have continued to move very far to the left with their policies. The Democrats have floated nationalizing healthcare, strict gun control, "The Green New Deal", and raising taxes, all which are very unpopular in polling on a national level and in key battleground states.
Overall, a slim majority (51%--27% strongly and 24% somewhat approve) of likely voters approve of Trump's job as president, while 47% disapprove-37% strongly and 10% somewhat disapprove; only 2% were not sure.
President Trump continues to score well with younger Millennial voters aged 18-29 (46% approve/50% disapprove) and Generation Z voters aged 18-24 (44% approve/53% disapprove). Usually, Trump does best with voters over 50, but in our latest poll, he is receiving solid support from voters under 50--a majority of Generation X voters aged 30-49 approved of Trump's job as president (51% approve/49% disapprove).
The President also received a good approval rating with voters aged 25-54; he received a majority job approval rating from older Millennial voters aged 25-34 (52% approve/47% disapprove) and middle aged voters aged 35-54 (52% approve/46% disapprove). Among the oldest voters surveyed-aged 65+ and 70+ , Trump's job approval rebounded (57% approve/42% disapprove and 62% approve/38% disapprove, respectively). As per usual, the president did well with men (58% approve/41% disapprove) and he continued to improve his support with all women (44% approve/53% disapprove).
When it came to the political party of respondents, 79% of Democrats disapproved of Trump, while 21% approved of Trump. An overwhelming number of Republicans approved (86% approve/13% disapprove), while Independents were more balanced in their impression of Trump's job performance (45% approve/50% disapprove). The president's numbers continue to improve with Independents, which a few months ago his approval rating was in the 30's.
Race also played a factor in Trump's job approval rating. Hispanics, this time around, were much more likely to approve of his job performance (49% approve/51% disapprove), while the president also saw his numbers jump with African Americans. This was his second straight poll with over a quarter support from African Americans (28% approve/70% disapprove). If Trump wins half of Hispanics and a quarter of African Americans in 2020, Democrats will be in trouble!
Likely voters in the South (54% approve/45% disapprove), Central/Great Lakes (53% approve/44% disapprove) and East (50% approve/47% disapprove) were more likely to approve of Trump's job as president, while likely voters in the West (43% approve/57% disapprove) were more likely to disapprove of Trump's job as commander in chief.
Trump made his biggest gains with likely voters in large (56% approve/42% disapprove) and small cities (51% approve/49% disapprove). President Trump also continued to have solid support among suburban (47% approve/50% disapprove) and rural voters (56% approve/41% disapprove).
The one important group Trump continues to see his support wane was with suburban women (38% approve/57% disapprove). This is an important group for him if he is going to win again in the "blue wall" states he won in 2016. The blow of losing support from suburban women was blunted with his gains with urban women-46% approve/53% disapprove and urban men (56% approve/43% disapprove).
One of the many demographics to give Trump a big boost in his job performance rating were consumers. We regularly track consumers who frequently shop at Amazon (59% approve/40% disapprove), Walmart (60% approve/40% disapprove) and NASCAR fans (70% approve/30% disapprove).
Religion was also a driving factor in Trump's high approval rating. This is very important to his re-election bid because religious voters turnout in big numbers. The president is polling very well with Catholics (58% approve/39% disapprove), Protestants(58% approve/40% disapprove) and Evangelicals (63% approve/34% disapprove).
Justin Trudeau, who has dealt with scandal as of late, had more Canadians disapprove (51%) of his job as prime minister than approve (43%).
Younger voters, especially those aged 18-29, who Trudeau has been very popular with, are more likely to favor the Prime Minister. Overall, 49% of Canadian Millennials approved of his job performance, while 39% disapproved. Voters aged 65+ were less enthusiastic, 39% approved of Trudeau's job performance, while 59% disapproved.
Attitudes about Trudeau's job as prime minister were split along partisan lines-87% of self-identified Liberal party voters approved of Trudeau, while 12% disapproved. Trudeau was less popular among the Conservative party (82% disapprove/18% approve) and those who identify with no party (32% disapprove/54% approve).
Where people lived also determined how they felt about the current Canadian Prime Minister: Canadians in large cities (48% approve/48% disapprove) and medium cities (45% approve/47% disapprove) were more likely to support Trudeau than Canadians in the small cities (38% approve/53% disapprove) and rural areas (28% approve/66% disapprove).
Annual household income was another indicator of Trudeau's job approval: Canadians who earned less than 25K Canadians Dollars (39% approve/55% disapprove) were less favorable than Canadians who earn more than 100k Canadian Dollars (48% approve/47% disapprove).
The Takeaways
- President Trump's job approval rating is tied for the highest we have on record. A slim majority strongly and somewhat approve of his job performance as president for the second straight poll. His numbers are being driven by record low unemployment and an inflated stock market, but a potential recession looms.
- Trump's job approval is much better than his counterpart to the north, Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau. Under heavy scrutiny lately, Trudeau's popularity has dipped.
- Besides a good economy, Trump's good approval rating is being driven by a surge in popularity among voters living in the South and Central regions, Independents, Millennials, suburban men, urban men, and older voters. Trump's approval rating has improved with minorities-28% of African Americans and 49% of Hispanics at least somewhat approve of the president-both very good numbers, historically, for Trump.
- Trump's support has spiked among consumers, mainly NASCAR fans and weekly Walmart and Amazon shoppers. A solid majority of each group gives the president a positive job rating.
- Trump has recently seen a spike in support among large and small city voters-more than half of each group approves of the president. Trump is also polling well among urban women, but has seen his support from suburban women take a beating. It will be interesting to see if the rise in support among urban women can blunt the decreased support among women in the suburbs.
- Religious voters are key to Trump winning in 2020. They make-up a big part of the electorate and have a big presence in battleground states. Right now the president is polling very well with Catholics, Protestants and Evangelicals.
Please click here for the U.S. voters methodology statement.
Please click here for the Canada adults methodology statement.