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Trump Approval

Trump Approval

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The Zogby Poll®: Trump's job approval tops 50%; A majority of Millennials approve of Trump; Nearly half of Generation Z voters approve of Trump; Trump is winning back Hispanic, Independent, college educated and urban voters

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A new Zogby Poll® of 852 likely voters nationwide in the U.S., conducted from 5/2/19-5/9/19, with a margin of sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, shows President Trump's job approval rating at its best since we've been tracking the figure. Currently, he stands at 51% approve/48% disapprove, while 2% are not sure.

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President Trump's job approval rating has seen a post Mueller report boost! We called it a few weeks ago. But that's not the complete story as to why the president has reached a peak in his job approval rating. Trump is also riding high on positive economic news-a record high stock market, low unemployment, and solid GDP growth at home. At the moment President Trump's approval rating is higher than Obama's at the same point in his presidency-Zogby Analytics had President Obama at 48% approve/52% disapprove on 05/09/2011.

Overall, a slim majority (51%--30% strongly and 21% somewhat approve) of likely voters approve of Trump's job as president, while 48% disapprove-37% strongly and 11% somewhat disapprove; only 2% were not sure.

President Trump scored well with younger Millennial voters aged 18-29 (51% approve/46% disapprove) and Generation Z voters aged 18-24 (49% approve/51% disapprove). The President also received a good approval rating with voters aged 25-54; he received a majority job approval rating from older Millennial voters aged 25-34 (53% approve/43% disapprove) and middle aged voters aged 35-54 (59% approve/38% disapprove). Among the oldest voters surveyed-aged 65+, Trump's disapproval rating was the strongest (59% disapprove/41% approve). As per usual, the president did well with men (58% approve/40% disapprove) and he improved his support with women (44% approve/54% disapprove).

When it came to the political party of surveyed voters, three quarters (78%) of Democrats disapproved of him, while 22% approved of Trump. An overwhelming number of Republicans approved (88% approve/11% disapprove), while Independents were more balanced in their impression of Trump's job performance (46% approve/50% disapprove).

Likely voters in the South (60% approve/39% disapprove) and West regions (49% approve/49% disapprove) were more likely to approve of Trump's job as president, while likely voters in the Central/Great Lakes (46% approve/53% disapprove) and East (45% approve/52% disapprove) regions were more likely to disapprove of Trump's job as commander in chief.

Trump also made gains with likely voters in large (47% approve/51% disapprove), medium (54% approve/46% disapprove), and small cities (49% approve/49% disapprove). President Trump also continued to have solid support among suburban (48% approve/50% disapprove) and rural voters (60% approve/37% disapprove).

The one important group Trump did see his support wane was with suburban women (41% approve/56% disapprove) but he gained with urban men (58% approve/40% disapprove).

One of the demographics to give Trump a very good job performance rating were self-identified social networkers (59% approve/40% disapprove-people who engage with social media). Trump has a huge following on Twitter and often utilizes his Twitter account to frequently get his message across to the public. The president also made strides with college educated voters (55% approve/45% disapprove), and saw support increase slightly with non-college educated voters (47% approve/50% disapprove).

What's driving Trump's improved job performance numbers? Voters' outlook on the economy the next four years: a slim majority of voters think the economy will be positive (excellent and good combined--22% excellent/29% good) versus 39% who think it will be negative (fair and poor combined-26% fair and 13% poor). A majority (58%) of men think things will be positive for the economy the next four years, including a plurality (31%) who says excellent. Only a third of men think things will be negative for economy the next four years (fair and poor combined).

More women than men think things will be negative (fair and poor combined-42%) but a plurality (44%) of women think things will be positive (excellent and fair combined) for the US economy.

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Younger voters, especially those aged 18-29, who have been harsh critics of Trump and his presidency, are evenly split on how the next four years will be for the U.S. economy: 44% think things will be positive (excellent and good combined), while the same amount think things will be negative (fair and poor combined). Among middle aged voters aged 30-49, things were much more upbeat: 57% think the U.S. economy will be positive the next four years and 35% think things will be negative. Voters aged 50+ were less enthusiastic, 49% thought things will be positive and 38% thought things would be negative for the US economy the next four years.

Attitudes about the next four years for the U.S. economy were split along partisan lines-a third of Democrats thought the economy would be positive the next four years and more than half thought things would be negative. More than three-quarters of Republicans were optimistic about the next four years for the U.S. economy and less than one fifth were pessimistic.

Another group the president is doing better with is Independents, who have recently changed their tune about Trump's job performance. Of the swing voters surveyed, 43% think things are going to be positive (excellent and good combined) for the economy the next four years, while slightly more (48%) think things are going to be negative the next four years (fair and poor combined).

Where people lived also determined how they felt about the direction of the U.S. economy: voters in rural areas (59% positive/30% negative), medium cities (52% positive/39% negative), large cities (51% positive/37% negative) and the suburbs (47% positive/41% negative) were optimistic about the next four years economically, but voters in small cities were split on the direction of the US economy the next four years (45% positive/45% negative).

Annual household income was another indicator of the solid U.S. economy: A majority of likely voters, whose household income was more than $75k annually (63% positive/28% negative), thought the economy would be good the next four years. Likely voters whose household income was less than $75k annually (42% positive/47% negative) were less likely to be optimistic about the economy the next four years. Hispanics were also more optimistic about the economy than they have been in a long time; half thought the economy would be positive the next four years, while less (44%) thought it would be negative.

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Overall, a plurality (46%) of likely voters, trust President Trump more than Democratic leaders (42%) to grow the U.S. economy and 12% are not sure who they trust.

When we dig into the numbers, we see Trump's base of supporters have more trust in him than Democrats, but Trump is also doing well with groups that typically lean Democratic: a majority of men trust Trump more than Democrats (51% Trump/37% Democratic leaders), while women are more likely to trust Democrats (41% Trump/46% Democratic leaders), but a decent number of women trust Trump when it came to growing the economy.

Almost as many younger Millennials (aged 18-29) trust Trump as they do Democratic leaders (41% Trump/43% Democratic leaders) to grow the economy. What's also driving Trump's improved job performance numbers are the gains he is making with college educated voters (50% Trump/39% Democratic leaders), voters in the West (51% Trump/36% Democratic leaders), voters aged 35-54 (54% Trump/37% Democratic leaders), medium city voters (47% Trump/42% Democratic leaders), social networkers (49% Trump/43% Democratic leaders), Independents (45% Trump/36% Democratic leaders), urban men (47% Trump/40% Democratic leaders) and suburban men (58% Trump/34% Democratic leaders). All of the aforementioned demographics say they trust Trump more than Democratic leaders to grow the U.S. economy.

Again, Trump's support dipped with suburban women when it came to who they trust more to grow the economy (36% Trump/51% Democratic leaders), but he countered that loss in support with gains among suburban and urban men.

The Takeaways

  • President Trump's job approval rating is the highest we have on record. A slim majority strongly and somewhat approve of his job performance as president. His numbers are being driven by decent job growth, an inflated stock market, solid GDP figures, and low unemployment, but there are potential foreign policy threats like Iran, North Korea and a trade war with China, which could derail his current popularity with voters.

  • Besides a good economy and vindication from the Mueller report, Trump's good approval rating is being driven by a surge in popularity among college educated voters, voters living in the Western region, Independents, Millennials, suburban men, urban men, and middle aged voters. Trump's approval rating has improved with minorities-27% of African Americans and 45% of Hispanics approve of the president-both very good numbers historically for Trump.

  • According to recent job statistics, most job growth in the U.S. has occurred in large to medium size cities, which could also explain the good job performance rating Trump received from large and medium city voters. Trump has recently seen a spike in support among large and medium city voters-almost half of each group approves of his job as president and think the U.S. economy will be positive the next four years.

  • With a solid economy, a potentially long and drawn out primary season for Democratic presidential candidates, plus solid gains with Independents, Millennials, urban voters, college educated voters, and minorities, Trump could be very hard to defeat in 2020. In addition to his base of supporters, Trump might be able to piece together another coalition and produce another improbable victory, as long as everything goes as planned, but we still have a lot of time left on the game clock.
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