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The Zogby Poll®: Biden leads in the 'Badger State' and future home of the 2020 Democratic convention; Sanders is in close pursuit in 2nd place but 'Mayor Pete' is on fire in 3rd place; Kamala Harris jumps Beto O'Rourke and Elizabeth Warren for 4th place

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According to a new Zogby Poll® of 485 likely Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin, conducted randomly online and on the telephone from 4/15/19 to 4/18/19, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, former Vice President Joe Biden is riding high in the "Badger State" regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary for president. "Mayor Pete" Buttigieg moves into the mainstream by securing double digit support, along with a lot of media attention!

Wisconsin will be a significant test for Democrats because they were upset there in 2016 when President Trump stunned the political world by defeating Hillary Clinton in the general election by smashing through the "blue wall," and also winning in Democratic strongholds Michigan and Pennsylvania. The state will also hold significance for the Democratic Party because of the Democratic victories for governor in 2018 and because it's the site of the 2020 Democratic convention. Democrats will try to wrestle the state back into the victory column, in which a Democratic nominee had won consecutively from 1988 to 2012.

Overall, Joe Biden leads Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) slightly inside the margin of error-24% to 20% while "Mayor Pete" Buttigieg makes a big splash and is "having his moment" in third place at 10%. This is followed by Senators Kamala Harris (7%), Elizabeth Warren (6%) and former Congressman Beto O'Rourke (5%). Senators Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar each received 4%, while 14% of likely Democratic voters are still unsure who they will vote for.

In a seemingly consistent pattern throughout the country, and since we started polling the 2020 Democratic nomination, Sanders leads Biden among younger voters age 18-24 (Sanders leads 28% to 16%) and age 18-29 (Sanders leads 28% to 12%) almost two to one. Among older Millennials age 25-34, Sanders leads Biden 35% to 16%. Biden does turn the tables on Sanders with voters aged 50+; Biden wins almost three to one with this sub-group against Sanders.

Joe Biden also does well with both men (Biden leads Sanders 25% to 20%) and women voters (Biden leads Sanders 23% to 20%). It must also be noted Beto O' Rourke received double digit support among voters aged 18-29.

The former Vice President Joe Biden is beating Sanders among registered Democrats. He leads his closest rival, Sanders 26% to 20%, while Pete Buttigieg (10%), Kamala Harris (8%) and Elizabeth Warren (7%) are the next closest candidates of the bunch. This group excludes some of the sample of voters, who were registered Republicans and Independents that plan to vote in Wisconsin's open primary.

Which candidate Independent likely voters will support is not clear, as Biden and Sanders are virtually tied at 20% and 21%, respectively. South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (11%) also received double digit support among Independent likely voters; 15% of Independents remained undecided. Biden also bests Sanders with white (Biden leads Sanders 25% to 20%) and African American voters (Biden leads Sanders 28% to 9%).

Where likely voters lived also factored in which Democratic candidate they supported: Pete Buttigieg (16%) and Kamala Harris (13%) perform best among large city voters, while Biden performs best in small cities (Biden leads Sanders 26% to 20%), suburbs (Biden leads Sanders 28% to 20%) and in the all important rural areas (Biden Leads Sanders 27% to 17%).

The Key Takeaways from the Survey

  • On the eve of announcing his candidacy for 2020, Biden retains a small lead over his closest rival, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in the ever important Wisconsin primary, even after being dogged by concerns over past "inappropriate" behavior with women.
  • Sanders still dominates among voters under 50, while Biden leads the pack with voters over 50.
  • Independent voters will determine who wins Wisconsin in the 2020 general election, which is very important if the Democrats want to win back a state they had won in seven consecutive presidential elections. As of right now, our polling shows Independents leaning Democratic.
  • "Mayor Pete" is for real right now! He has positioned himself as the potential "it candidate" as the establishment candidates duke it out and Senators Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Kamala Harris lag behind.

Click here to view the methodology statement.

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