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The Zogby Poll®: Biden and Sanders dominant against Trump in Wisconsin; Trump neck and neck with Harris, Buttigieg and O'Rourke; Trump performs well with suburban women

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Zogby Analytics conducted a random statewide online/telephone survey of 802 likely voters in the Wisconsin. The survey was conducted 04/15/2019 - 04/18/2019. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 802 is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

In our latest poll, we re-analyzed voters' attitudes concerning potential 2020 presidential election horse races in Wisconsin. We found Donald Trump is still losing considerably against seasoned politicians, Joe Biden (50% to 40% in favor of Biden), Senator Bernie Sanders-I-VT (49% to 42% in favor of Sanders), and Elizabeth Warren-D-MA (47% to 41% in favor of Warren). The president is in much closer races with political newcomers Senators Kamala Harris-D-CA (Harris leads 43%-42%), former Congressman Beto O'Rourke (O'Rourke leads Trump 44% to 41%) and "Mayor Pete" Buttigieg from South Bend, Indiana (Buttigieg leads Trump 44% to 41%).

In the match-up between President Trump and Bernie Sanders, the senator from Vermont received half of support (49%) of voters, while Trump received 42% support of voters. Sanders does better than Trump with women (Sanders leads 55%-36%), younger voters aged 18-24 (Sanders leads 59%-27%) and 18-29 (Sanders leads 57%-29%). Among voters aged 50-64, Trump wins 48%-45%, while Sanders is more popular with voters aged 65+ (Sanders leads 50% to 43%). The senator from Vermont also wins a plurality of Hispanics (Sanders leads 46% to 36%) and African American likely voters (Sanders leads 65% to 20%). Among white voters, Sanders and Trump are close (Sanders leads 47%-45%), and as per usual Trump beats Sanders among men (Trump leads 49% to 44%), suburban (51% to 39%) and rural voters (52%-42%), and voters earning over $100k annually (Trump leads 54% 37%), while Sanders wins Independent voters 50% to 36% and voters earning less than 100k. Sanders did very well city voters, handily beating Trump with a majority support of Wisconsin voters in large, medium, and small cities. On this note, it must be mentioned that President Trump and Bernie Sanders both poll well with suburban females, Sanders leads Trump within the margin of error (47% to 44%).

When we examine Trump vs. former Vice President Joe Biden, Biden handily beats the president 50% to 40%. Joe Biden, like Bernie Sanders, is favored among younger voters aged 18-24 (Biden leads 52%-26%), voters aged 18-29 (Biden leads 55%-27%), women (Biden leads 54%-34%), Independents (Biden leads 50%-30%), all minority groups, and is supported by majorities of voters in large (Biden leads 65% to 24%), medium (Biden leads 56% to 33%) and small cities (Biden leads 55% to 36%). On the other hand, President Trump does not do that great against Biden with his own base- men (both are tied at 46%) and white voters (Biden leads 48% to 43%). And while the president does best Biden in the suburbs (Trump leads 47% to 39%), rural areas (Trump leads 50% to 42%) and among voters aged 35-54 (Trump leads (47% to 45%), both men are tied among voters aged 50-64 (at 46%) Biden further cuts into Trump's success with his base by winning a majority of voters aged 65+ (Biden leads 52% to 37%). An important number to look at is that Biden narrowly beats Trump among suburban women 45% to 42%.

Our polling of a potential showdown between Trump and liberal favorite Senator Elizabeth Warren has fluctuated over the last few years. In our November 2017 poll in Wisconsin she led Trump by 11 points, but the race has since tightened. She currently leads the president by 6 points-47% to 41% and has a 15-point lead among Independents, 48% to 33%. Warren is currently doing better with younger voters than her other Democratic counterparts. Warren receives 61% of 18-29 year old voters and nearly two-thirds of 18-24 year olds. This could be attributed to Warren's latest promise to eliminate student debt and make public tuition free for all students. When it came to the rest of demographics we surveyed, Trump beats Warren among men (Trump leads 48% to 43%), white voters (Trump leads 45% to 44%), suburban (Trump leads 49% to 38%) and rural voters (Trump leads 50% to 38%), middle aged voters 35-54 (Trump leads 51% to 39%), and older voters aged 50-64 (Trump leads 47% to 42%).

Warren, predictably received a majority support from women (Warren leads 51% to 35%), large (Warren leads 61% to 23%), medium (Warren leads 55% to 35%), and small city voters (Warren leads 51% to 39%). Surprisingly, Warren also did well with older voters aged 65+ (Warren leads 47% to 40%) and 70+ (Warren leads 46% to 42%), and voters with household incomes above $150k (Warren leads 48% to 44%), all whom usually favor Trump. When it came to suburban women, Trump narrowly leads Warren 45% to 42%.

Among the political neophytes, "Mayor Pete" Buttigieg, Beto O'Rourke, and Kamala Harris all narrowly defeat President Trump within the margin of error, but interestingly Trump is narrowly defeating each candidate with suburban women, a group he has done well with and helped propel him to the presidency in 2016.

The Key Takeaways from the Survey

  • Political heavyweights Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are comfortably beating Trump in Wisconsin; an important state for Democrats in 2020, but Democrats must not make the same mistake Hillary Clinton made in 2016-our polling in Wisconsin showed 83% of voters agreed Hillary Clinton took Wisconsin for granted by not campaigning there.

  • Both Biden and Sanders are winning big with Independents and hurting Trump with groups that normally support him, such as white and older voters

  • President Trump remains popular among suburban and rural voters, especially suburban women. Trump polls very close with suburban women among the frontrunners-Biden and Sanders, while narrowly beating Harris, Warren, and Buttigieg among suburban women.

  • The reason the President does well with suburban women is revealed by a separate question we asked all voters: "who do trust more to grow the economy" and "keep America safe."Among suburban women, Trump is trusted over Democratic leaders to "grow the economy" 49% to 33% and "keep America safe" 46% to 35%.

Click here to view the methodology statement.

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