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The Zogby Poll®: Sanders and Biden neck and neck in Oregon; O'Rourke and Yang making moves

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According to a new Zogby Poll® of 503 likely voters in Oregon, of which 238 were likely Democratic primary voters, former Vice President Joe Biden (26%) and Senator Bernie Sanders (27%) (I-VT) are in a statistical tie for the state's 2020 Democratic primary. The statewide online survey of Oregon likely voters was conducted 3/18/19 to 3/19/19 with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points; the margin of error for 238 likely democratic voters is +/-6.4 percentage points.

The figures in the above graph also include "leaners"- we asked undecided voters "if the election were held today and you had to make up your mind right now, who would you vote for?" These figures are combined with the original horse race figures. When undecided voters are not included, Bernie Sanders (25%) and Joe Biden (24%) are still in a statistical dead heat.

Since our last poll in February, Beto O'Rourke (8%) and Andrew Yang (4%) have made the biggest moves, having received a lot of media attention as of late. Kamala Harris (CA-D) and Elizabeth Warren (MA-D) are tied for fourth place at 6%, while Cory Booker and Yang are tied for fifth place with 4% support each. In our February national poll, O'Rourke was behind Warren and Harris, and Yang was at the bottom of the pile.

At the moment no other candidate outside of Biden and Sanders receives double digit support among likely democratic voters in Oregon. Which candidate ultimately wins the Democratic nomination depends on where each candidate stands with the most important demographics we analyze- age, gender, where voters live, and support among independents. When we dig into the age sub-group, Joe Biden does best with voters over the age of 50 (Biden beats Sanders 32% to 19%) and Bernie Sanders does best with voters under the age of 50 (Sanders beats Biden 35% to 21%); Sanders is especially popular among the youngest demographics-Millennials (born 1981 to 1996) and Generation Z voters (born 1997 onward). Gender also played an important role in which candidate Democratic primary voters would support for their party's nomination-Bernie Sanders beats Joe Biden among men (30% to 23%), while Biden is more popular with women (29% to 24%).

Where democratic likely voters in Oregon live also factors into which candidate they would support. Bernie Sanders is doing better with likely voters in large cities (Sanders beats Biden 32% to 20%), while Biden bests Bernie among suburban voters 34% to 25%.

Registered Democrats were split in their support for Biden (27%) and Sanders (26%), while registered Independents slightly favored Sanders 31% to 27%. Beto O'Rourke was the only other candidate to receive double digit support among Independents, with 12%.

When it came to region, in the east and west metro areas of Portland, Biden (27%) and Sanders (28%) are neck and neck. The Independent Senator from Vermont edges the former VP (29% to 23%) in the Willamette Valley and Northwest parts of Oregon, while Biden wins convincingly (31% to 21%) in the eastern and southern regions of the state.

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Overall, a third of Oregon likely voters said the state is heading in the right direction, while nearly half say Oregon is off on the wrong track; one fifth of likely voters were not sure. A plurality of younger voters-Generation Z (aged 18-24-35% right direction/29% wrong track) and Millennials (aged 18-29-41% right direction/32% wrong track) were more likely to say Oregon is heading in the right direction as opposed to off on the wrong track. More than a third (36%) of Generation Z voters were undecided, which was the most among any surveyed sub-group.

Older Oregon likely voters were not as confident. More voters aged 50-64 (25% right direction/58% wrong track) and 65+ (34% right direction/44% wrong track) thought things in the state were off on the wrong track. Interestingly, likely voters aged 70+, were split at 37% right direction/37% wrong track.

The political leanings and annual household incomes of voters also played a role in how Oregon voters felt about the direction of the state. Democrats (53% right direction/22% wrong track) were much more likely to think things were heading in the right direction, while majorities of Republicans (14% right direction/78% wrong track) and Independents (26% right direction/51% wrong track) felt the opposite. Not surprisingly, voters whose household incomes were $35-$50k annually (26% right direction/52% wrong track) were more pessimistic than high-income earners-annual household incomes of $100k+ (42% right direction/36% wrong track) about the direction Oregon.

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