Suburban women support the national emergency and additional border fence funding
According to a new Zogby Poll® of 1,744 likely voters, conducted randomly online from 2/14/19 to 2/17/19, with a margin of error of +/-2.2 percentage points, the president's job approval rating is back up to its average range of 44% approve/53% disapprove.
President Trump's job approval/disapproval rating has improved slightly since he agreed to end a partial government shutdown last week, and declared a national emergency in order to get more funding for a "border wall" to be built along the U.S.-Mexico border. Since our last poll in January, in a stunning reversal of sorts, the president's approval rating is down among men but improved with women. Trump's job approval dropped among men (48% approve/51% disapprove), while more women approved of him this time around (40% approve/55% disapprove), which is up from our January poll (33% approve/66% disapprove). He did not receive a majority approval from any age group; but improved his support among younger voters, while his support waned with voters over age 50. 44% and 42% of voters aged 18-29 and 18-24, respectively, approve of the president and 50% and 48%, respectively, disapprove of Trump. 45% of voters aged 65+ approve of Trump but a majority (54%) of voters aged 65+ (54%) disapprove of him, which is usually the opposite.
The president's numbers steadily gained among Independents (39% approve/55% disapprove) and voters without college degrees (45% approve/51% disapprove), two groups that helped him win the 2016 presidential election. Another interesting area where President Trump gained ground was with Hispanics (40% approve/57% disapprove) and African Americans (24% approve/70% disapprove). Both groups' job approval rating of Trump increased the most in months. Our last poll witnessed a striking blow to the president's support-- for the first time since we have been tracking Trump's approval, he did not have a majority job approval rating among weekly Walmart Shoppers (47% approve/51% disapprove). Those numbers also bounced back for the president: 52% approve/45% disapprove among the all-important consumer voting bloc.
The president's job approval also recovered among his base. He continued to have support among Republicans (81% approve/17% disapprove), NASCAR fans (56% approve/41% disapprove), rural voters (51% approve/46% disapprove), Central/Great Lakes voters (46% approve/52% disapprove), and voters whose household income is $50,000-$75,000 annually (47% approve/51% disapprove). Trump improved with small city voters (46% approve/53% disapprove) and suburban voters (43% approve/52% disapprove), but more importantly, he is doing very well with suburban women (50% approve/50% disapprove), who are vital to his re-election hopes in 2020. The next two survey questions will delve further into why the president's numbers are up with suburban women.
The President's job approval rating was buoyed by a number of different groups, including suburban women. The following chart explains why Trump's numbers improved among suburban women. Overall, of the 1,744 likely voters surveyed, 37% supported the president looking elsewhere for funds to complete 500 miles of fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border. Slightly more likely voters (42%) did not support Trump's efforts to find additional funding to complete 500 miles of border fencing, and one in five were not sure.
A significant plurality (45%) of suburban women (likely voters) do support the president looking elsewhere to find funding for the border fence, while two in five suburban women do not support this idea . The support of suburban women is well above the number of all women (32% yes/42% no) and all suburban likely voters (37% yes/42% no) who agree with President Trump utilizing funds committed elsewhere to finish 500 miles of border fencing.
When it comes to Trump's national emergency, we can see the disparity between how all voters and suburban women feel about Trump declaring a national emergency to complete 500 miles of fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border. Overall, a quarter of all likely voters strongly agree, while almost half of likely voters strongly disagree with the President's national emergency. When we combine the strongly and somewhat agree fields, 41% agree and 59% disagree with the president's national emergency.
With suburban women it's not as black and white: 50% agree (32% strongly agree and 18 somewhat agree) with the President Trump declaring a national emergency, while 51% disagree (41% strongly disagree and 10% somewhat disagree). Suburban women agreed more with the President than almost all other sub-groups, even more so than all rural voters (48% agree/52% disagree). The same number of Hispanics and all likely voters strongly agreed (24%) and agreed overall (strongly and somewhat agree combined--41% agree/59% disagree) with Trump declaring a national emergency to finish his border fence.
*N=367 has a margin of error of +/-5.1 percentage points
President Trump's job approval rating is not great but it's not as low as it has been lately. He is being helped by increased support from younger voters (Millennials and Gen.Z), Hispanics, weekly Walmart shoppers, and suburban women.
Likely voters are somewhat split on whether the president should go around Congress and seek funds elsewhere for the 500 miles of border fence he originally requested. A majority of likely voters disagree with Trump declaring a national emergency to do so.
Even though most voters do not agree with the president's recent actions regarding the border, suburban women do favor his policies. A plurality of suburban women want the president to get funding elsewhere to complete the border fence and half support him declaring a national emergency to do so.
As the 2020 presidential election inches closer, Trump will look to strengthen his support among his base and appeal to swing voter blocs, such as, suburban women. The "border wall" or "border fence" will be a key issue he can utilize to help his re-election chances, especially as his Democratic opponents move further to the left regarding immigration policies.