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Trump Approval

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The Zogby Poll®: Trump's approval rating lowest in over a year; A majority of voters blame Trump for the government shutdown; Trump dominates in hypothetical Republican primary

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According to a new Zogby Poll® of 893 likely voters, conducted randomly online from 1/18/19 to 1/20/19, with a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the President's approval rating has decreased to its lowest point in a year! As it stands now, Trump's job approval rating is 41% approve/56% disapprove (strongly and somewhat categories combined), while 3% of voters are not sure.

President Trump's approval/disapproval rating is being hurt by the partial government shutdown. His numbers are down across the board. Apart from men (51% approve/49% disapprove), Trump's approval rating was down among almost every key category. Only a third of women voters approve of him, while nearly two-thirds disapprove of the job he is doing as president. He did not receive a majority approval from any age group; the president usually does well with voters over age 50. 45% of voters over the age of 65 approve of him but a majority of voters (54%) disapprove of Trump, which is usually the opposite.

His numbers are anemic among Independents (35% approve/58% disapprove) and voters without college degrees (42% approve/55% disapprove), two groups that helped him win in the 2016 presidential election. President Trump has always done well with consumer voting blocs, such as weekly Walmart Shoppers. In a striking blow to the President's support, for the first time since we have been tracking Trump's approval he does not have a majority job approval rating among weekly Walmart Shoppers (47% approve/51% disapprove).

It wasn't all doom and gloom for Trump, but not "good" in any sense of the word. He did have support among Republicans (81% approve/18% disapprove), NASCAR fans (63% approve/37% disapprove), rural voters (49% approve/49% disapprove), Central/Great Lakes voters (44% approve/50% disapprove), and voters whose household income is $50,000-$75,000 annually (45% approve/55% disapprove). It's just that a majority of every other group, including upper income households->$150k (37% approve/57% disapprove), older voters-50-64 (47% approve/52% disapprove), small city voters (42% approve/55% disapprove), and suburban voters (41% approve/56% disapprove), who help make-up his base, disapprove of the job he is doing as president right now, and the next survey question we tested will delve into why that is.

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A majority (52%) of likely voters surveyed believe President Trump is more to blame for the recent government shutdown than Congressional Democrats Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi (38%). Only 9% were still not sure who to blame more.

A majority of most sub-groups blame the President more for the partial federal government shutdown. This includes important swing voter groups and some of the president's most ardent supporters. Among his base, even these groups were still not fully behind his actions to shut the government down for a border wall.

Men (46% Dems./48% Pres.), middle income households-$50-$70k annually (45% Dems./48% Pres.), upper income households (34% Dems./55% Pres.), the Central/Great Lakes region (43% Dems./43% Pres.), middle age voters-age 30-49 (37% Dems/55% Pres.), weekly Walmart shoppers (44% Dems./48% Pres.), and rural voters (46% Dems./44% Pres.) were torn between who to blame more. Outside of Republicans (72% Dems./18% Pres.) and self-identified Conservatives (67% Dems./25% Pres.) , no sub-group had a majority that blamed Congressional Democrats more for the partial government shutdown.

It's safe to say the public blames President Trump more than Democrats and it is reflected in his low job approval rating.

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Any discussion of President Trump being challenged in a 2020 Republican primary should include the above numbers. Even in a crowded field with established candidates and a former presidential nominee, President Trump receives two-thirds support from Republicans. The closest competitor is Utah Senator Mitt Romney, who lost in his bid to be president in 2012. Former governor John Kasich (OH) received 8%, followed by former governor (SC) and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (6%). Jeb Bush and Jeff Flake bottom out the list, and receive 2% an 1%, respectively.

An important number to look at is the 6% who are not sure. With an 81% job approval rating from Republicans and Conservatives, it’s reasonable to assume Trump will not be primaried and has the support of the GOP for his 2020 re-election bid.

This question was asked to a sub-sample of 307 likely Republican voters, conducted randomly online from 1/18/19 to 1/20/19, with a margin of error of +/-5.6 percentage points.

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