bloomberg trump 102218

A new national online Zogby poll® of 848 likely voters in the U.S., conducted 10/15/18 to 10/17/18 with a margin of error of +/-3.4%, shows former NYC Mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg narrowly defeating, within the margin of error, President Trump in a hypothetical 2020 presidential match-up.

The results were split down party lines. Trump won big with white (Trump leads 50%-34%), male (Trump leads 52% to 37%), and older voters age 65+ (Trump leads 52% to 39%). Bloomberg won convincingly with African Americans (Bloomberg leads 76% to 5%), Hispanics (Bloomberg leads 54% to 30%), women (Bloomberg leads 49% to 29%) and younger Millennial voters age 18-29 (Bloomberg leads 44% to 29%).

Trump and Bloomberg tied among independents. Bloomberg is ahead with lower <$25k (Bloomberg leads 52% to 30%) and upper income voters >$150k (Bloomberg leads 45% to 43%), while Trump succeeds with upper/middle income voters $75-$100k (Trump leads 52% to 35%).

Bloomberg also does well in most regions; he wins with voters in the East (Bloomberg leads 47% to 37%), South (Bloomberg leads 43% to 40%) and West (Bloomberg leads 50% to 34%) regions, while Trump does well in the Central/Great Lakes region (Trump leads 46% to 38%).

Bloomberg does cut into Trump's base; he ties Trump with suburban voters (both 43%) and does well among union voters (Trump leads 46% to 43%). Not surprisingly, the former mayor of NYC wins with large city voters (Bloomberg leads 56% to 26%) and small city voters (Bloomberg leads 43% to 39%).

As for unique consumer sub-groups we track, Trump beats Bloomberg among frequent Amazon (Trump leads 45% to 38%) and Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 47% to 38%), and NASCAR fans (Trump leads 59% to 32%).