A new nationwide Zogby poll® of 848 likely voters in the U.S., conducted 10/15/18 to 10/17/18 with a margin of error of +/-3.4%, shows Trump's job approval is the same since our last poll in August. A plurality of voters (47%) have confidence in the economy for the next four years, which is down from 52% in August.
I. Trump's Job approval
Our latest Zogby Analytics nationwide survey of likely voters has the President's job approval staying the same at 47% approve ("strongly" and "somewhat approve" combined) and 52% disapprove ("strongly" and "somewhat disapprove" combined), while 2% are not sure. When it came to the demographics and the president's job approval, support among his base strengthened: more men (57% approve/42% disapprove) approved of the president compared to fewer women (37% approve/61% disapprove).
President Trump's approval rating also continued to increase with the age of the voters. He gained ground with younger voters: Trump's approval rating increased from 32% to 41% among 18-29 year olds, while 56% of 18-29 year olds (younger Millennials) disapproved of his job as commander in chief. Among 30-49 year olds, his numbers lowered from 48% to 43% approve, and increased to 55% disapprove. Voters who were age 50-64 and 65+ were most likely to approve of the president-50% approve/48% disapprove and 52% approve/48% disapprove, respectively.
The president's job approval numbers among republicans remained solid at 84% approve, while 15% of likely GOP voters disapproved of Trump's performance as commander in chief. The president's numbers with independents moved somewhat-41% approve and 55% disapprove. His approval rating with independents, a few months ago, was in the low 30's.
Regionally, the president's job approval numbers remained steady in the south (50% approve/48% disapprove) and central great lakes regions (52% approve/47% disapprove), but remained lower in the eastern (41% approve/56% disapprove) and western regions (39% approve/59% disapprove).
When it came to environs, Trump's numbers remained good with suburban voters (49% approve/50% disapprove), while support among rural voters increased dramatically (69% approve/30% disapprove). Large city voters (32% approve/66% disapprove) were much less likely to approve of Trump compared to small city voters (43% approve/53% disapprove).
The president lost some support among upper income voters, who earn more than $100k annually. Overall, our poll shows Trump's numbers getting better among lower and middle income voters who earn $25k-35k (49% approve/49% disapprove) and voters who earn $35-50k annually (45% approve/55% disapprove)-both improvements in the last few months. When it came to the upper income groups, a majority (59% approve/39% disapprove) of voters who earn $75k-$100k annually approve of the President, while the nearly the same number of voters approve and disapprove of him, who earn more than 100k annually-49%-50% approve and disapprove.
One key group that could help Trump and republicans in battleground states during the midterms is union voters. The president's numbers keep improving with union voters; a majority (57%) approve of Trump's job as president, while 41% disapprove--up from 53% approve/47% disapprove in August. Trump's support among union voters has see-sawed from the low forties to mid fifties percentage wise the last couple of years. His numbers are also pretty strong with social networkers-47% approve/52% disapprove, another area the President's numbers continue to climb.
This is important in assessing Trump's capacity to win over voters because he has such a large following, and has an expansive way of communicating with the public through social media. The president's numbers have also gotten better with weekly Walmart shoppers (57% approve/42% disapprove) and NASCAR fans (68% approve/31% disapprove). Among weekly Amazon shoppers Trump's numbers vastly improved--53% approve/44%disapprove. All three are important swing voter blocs that could help decide who controls Congress come November.
II. U.S. economy
Trump's job approval may have improved the last few months due to the fact that voters feel confident about the U.S. economy; more (47%) voters surveyed said they think things will be good the next four years for the U.S. economy (17% "excellent" and 30% "good" ratings combined), while 44% think things will not be good (29% fair and 15% poor), and 9% are not sure.
When we examine age sub-groups for this economic indicator, there is less optimism among younger voters-37% of younger Millennials (age 18-29) and 44% of older Millennial voters (age 25-34) think things will be good for the U.S. economy the next four years, compared to 43% and 50%, respectively, who thought in August the economy would be good the next four years. Since August, voters age 50-64 (48%) think things will be good the next four years for the U.S. economy, while 45% think things will be bad. Voters age 65+ were in positive spirits economically when it came to the next four years; 62% thought things would be good, and a third said bad ("fair" and "poor" ratings combined).
Two in five (40%) independents are optimistic about the next four years economically, while 50% are pessimistic. These figures are also slightly down from our last poll.
Since August, significantly less (34%) women think things will be going well for the US economy in the next four years, while 51% feel otherwise. Men were positive about the economy for the next four years-- 62% thought things would be good, while 35% thought the opposite. Trump will need decent support-- in the low to mid forties--among younger voters, women, and independents for him to possibly help republicans keep control of both houses.
III. US Direction
The right direction/wrong track metric, to measure how well the US is "doing", is at an all time high for the last five years, among our tracking history. The percentage of people who see the US headed in the "right direction" has typically been a low number-it was under 20% during certain parts of George W. and Obama's presidencies. A year ago, we had 35% right direction/53% wrong track. Since then the number has increased steadily under Trump. The numbers this time are statistically tied compared to the August numbers-41% right direction/50% wrong track, and 9% not sure. A majority (53%) of men think the country is going in the "right direction", while 39% think it's on the "wrong track". Women did not agree-by almost two to one, women voters thought the country was on the "wrong track" (30% right direction/59% wrong track).
Younger voters were very pessimistic compared to older voters. Three in ten 18-29 year olds think the US is headed in the "right direction" and 53% think things are on "wrong track". A majority (53%) of older voters, age 65+, on the other hand feel the US is headed in the "right direction" and 45% say "wrong track" Independents were not as optimistic-a third think things are going in the "right direction", while a majority (55%) think things are on the "wrong track".
Among groups who are favorable of Trump, Walmart shoppers (53% right direction/40% wrong track), NASCAR fans (61% right direction/34% wrong track) and Amazon shoppers (50% right direction/40% wrong track) seem to believe the United States is going in the "right direction" as opposed to off on the "wrong track".
IV. The Takeaways
Trump's job approval numbers remained unchanged, but he got a bump from his base supporters-his numbers among men, upper income voters, rural voters, Walmart Shoppers, NASCAR fans and social networkers all improved.
Some key groups are less optimistic about the economy four years from now-these are younger voters, women, and independents. All groups Trump and republicans need to improve with to help them retain the House and Senate in November.
Right direction is the highest it's been in five years. And many of Trump's supporters think the country is headed in the "right direction"-Walmart shoppers, NASCAR fans and Amazon shoppers, who are all important swing voters.
Trump is also making in-roads with lower and middle income voters, who traditionally support Democrats.