Saturday, October 20th, 2018

The Trump
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Trump Approval

Trump Approval

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US Direction

The Zogby Poll®: Trump's job approval jumps! A majority of voters think the economy will be good the next four years! A majority want the Mueller probe to wrap-up now!

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A new nationwide Zogby poll® of 1,016 likely voters in the U.S., conducted 8/6/18 to 8/8/18 with a margin of error of +/-3.1%, shows Trump's job approval up slightly from our last poll in June, and a majority of voters confident in the economy the next four years.

I. Trump's Job approval

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Our latest Zogby Analytics online nationwide survey of likely voters has the President's job approval numbers jumping slightly to 46% approve ("strongly" and "somewhat approve" combined) and 51% disapprove ("strongly" and "somewhat disapprove" combined), while 2% are not sure. When it came to the demographics and the president's job approval, there were big movements with his base: more men (55% approve/44% disapprove) approved of the president compared to fewer women (38% approve/59% disapprove).

President Trump's approval rating also continued to increase with the age of the voters. He lost ground with younger voters: Trump's approval decreased from 40% to 32% among 18-29 year olds, while 63% disapproved of his job as commander in chief. Among 30-49 year olds, his numbers jumped from 43% approve and 53% disapprove to 48% approve and 50% disapprove. Voters who were age 50-64 were most likely to approve of the president-54% approve/45% disapprove.

The president's job approval numbers among republicans was solid at 86%, while 13% of likely GOP voters disapproved of Trump's job as commander in chief. Regionally, the president's job approval numbers remained steady in the south (50% approve/48% disapprove) and central great lakes regions (47% approve/51% disapprove), while it decreased in the eastern region (38% approve/57% disapprove), but improved in the western region (47% approve/52% disapprove). More importantly, the president improved his numbers with independents in a big way-43% approve and 53% disapprove. His approval rating with independents, a few months ago, was in the low 30's.

When it came to geography, Trump got a big bump with suburban voters (52% approve/47% disapprove), while support among rural voters slightly dipped (56% approve/42% disapprove), but remained strong for President Trump. Large city voters (35% approve/62% disapprove) were much less likely to approve of Trump compared to small city voters (44% approve/53% disapprove).

The president gained support among upper income voters, who earn more than $100k annually. Overall, our poll shows majorities of voters who earn anywhere from less than $25k annually to $100k annually disapprove of Trump's job as president of the United States (the exception is the category $50-75k, where a majority approve of Trump), while a majority (52%-53%) of voters who earn more than $100k annually approve of him, and 46%-47% disapprove of the president.

One key area which could help Trump and republicans in battleground states and in the rust-belt area of the U.S. during the midterms is the fact that his numbers keep improving with union voters; a majority (53%) approve, while 47% disapprove. His approval rating among union voters has see-sawed from the low forties to mid fifties percentage wise the last couple of years. His numbers are also pretty strong with social networkers-43% approve/54% disapprove. This is important in assessing Trump's capacity to win over voters because he has such a large following and has an expansive way of communicating with the public through his twitter account. The president's numbers also remain high with weekly Walmart shoppers (50% approve/46% disapprove) and NASCAR fans (64% approve/32% disapprove). Among weekly Amazon shoppers, voters were split at 49% approve/disapprove.

II. U.S. economy

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Why has Trump's job approval increased is likely due to the fact that voters feel confident about the U.S. economy; a majority of all voters surveyed said they think things will be good the next four years for the U.S. economy (20% excellent and 32% good rating), while 41% think things will not be good (25% fair and 16% poor), and 8% are not sure.

When we examine age sub-groups for this economic question, there is optimism among younger voters-44% of younger Millennials (age 18-29) and 50% of older Millennial voters (age 25-34) think things will be good for the U.S. economy the next four years, compared to 46%-52%, respectively, who think the opposite. Almost half (46%) of independents are optimistic about the next four years economically, while 45% are pessimistic. Older voters, age 50-64 (56%), think things will be good the next four years for the U.S. economy, while more than a third (37%) think things will be bad. Voters age 70+ were also in positive spirits when it came to the next four years economically; 56% thought things would be good, and 36% said bad ("fair" and "poor") combined.

Not many (43%) women think things will be going well for the US economy in the next four years, while 47% feel otherwise. Men were positive about the economy in the next four years-- 61% thought things would be good, while 35% thought the opposite. If Trump has decent support among younger voters, women, and independents, in the low to mid forties, that might be enough support for him to possibly help republicans keep control of both houses, and propel him to re-election in 2020.

III. Russia Investigation

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Overall, more than half of respondents wanted special counsel Robert Mueller to end the probe into Russian meddling; nearly a third do not, and 18% are not sure. Majorities and pluralities of most demographics agreed that it was time for Mueller to wrap up his investigation. Of course, Trump's base supported this idea the most-men (56% yes/31% no), voters age 50-64 (61% yes/28% no), voters who earn more than $150k (59% yes/34% no), NASCAR fans (67% yes/16% no), and Walmart shoppers (61% yes/26% no). But interestingly, even groups sympathetic to democrats felt it was time to end the probe. Pluralities of younger Millennials age 18-29 (36% yes/31% no), older Millennials age 25-34 (43% yes/31% no), Hispanics (50% yes/26% no), women (49% yes/28% no), and Independents (47% yes/29% no) felt it's time for Mueller to wrap up his probe. Shockingly, a third of democrats wanted the probe to end (32% yes/49% no)!

IV. The Takeaways

  • President Trump is riding high at the moment because his job approval rating is solid and the economy is doing well.
  • He is polling better than democrats when it comes to the economy.
  • The president will need to keep his numbers in the mid to high forties percentage wise among voters age 18-29, women, and independents regarding who voters trust more to grow the economy.
  • Trump will also need to receive strong support from his base to prevent democrats from making serious gains in the November congressional mid-term elections.
  • Voters might have Russia fatigue. A majority thinks it's time to wrap-up Mueller's Russia probe, and so do a third of democrats. There might be fear that the Russia probe will undermine democratic chances in November to take back control of congress.

Please click here for the methodology statement.

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