Tuesday, August 14th, 2018

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The Zogby Poll®: 44% of Michigan likely voters strongly disapprove of Donald Trump/41% approve of the president; 47% of Michigan voters back democratic candidates for congress, while a third support republicans

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Nearly 40% of voters think Michigan is headed in the right direction; Nearly 40% of voters say their personal finances are better off, while 40% say their personal finances are about the same

A Zogby survey of 537 likely voters in Michigan conducted online 7/12/18 - 7/15/18 with a MOE +/- 4.2 percentage points shows a majority of likely voters (57%) disapprove of President Trump, but he is still popular with his base of voters, and he might have just enough support among key demographics to pull off another upset in 2020, or possibly prevent the democrats from re-taking control of congress from republicans.  Zogby Analytics also tested which party's congressional candidate voters prefer, and democrats were beating republicans handily, but 16% still remain not sure. Overall, two in five Michigan voters felt things were headed in the right direction, and their personal finances were better off, while an equal number thought things were on the wrong track, and only 20% said their personal finances were worse off.

MItrumpapproval071518

41% of Michigan likely voters approve (strongly and somewhat approve combined) of the president and a majority (57%) disapprove (strongly and somewhat disapprove combined). A plurality is very intense about their feelings toward the president, as 44% strongly disapprove of him in Michigan. The president does fine with his base, nearly eighty percent of republicans approved of his job as president (strongly and somewhat approve combined). He does alright with independents (44% approve/53% disapprove), while the president does not do well with traditional democratic groups such as women (33% approve/64% disapprove), younger Millennial voters age 18-29 (36% approve/60% disapprove), older Millennials age 25-34 (34% approve/62% disapprove) and all minority voters. On the other hand, the president does well enough with some other key groups-middle income voters who earn between $25k-$50k annually (43%-51% approve/46%-52% disapprove), rural voters (55% approve/43% disapprove), small city voters (46% approve/53% disapprove), catholic voters (43% approve/54% disapprove), older voters age 65+ (43% approve/54% disapprove), male voters (50% approve/49% disapprove), and voters with no college degree (44% approve/54% disapprove).

MIdirection071518

Nearly as many voters think the state of Michigan is headed in the right direction (38%), as do those who think things are off on the wrong track (40%), and slightly more than one-fifth are not sure. Trump's overall numbers are not that bad in a traditional "blue wall" state, which President Donald Trump narrowly won in 2016. 56% of democrats thought things were off on the wrong track/21% right direction, while 59% of republicans thought things were headed in the right direction/19% wrong track. Independents were split; 39% said right track and 39% said wrong direction. Men were more likely to think things were headed in the right direction (47%), while women were more likely to have thought things were off on the wrong track (42%). Younger voters age 18-29 (33% right direction/36% wrong track) were just as non-committal about the direction of Michigan as older voters age 65+ (38% right direction/40% wrong track).

Where likely voters lived played a role in how they viewed the direction of Michigan. Likely voters in the rural areas (36% right direction/42% wrong track) and suburban parts (44% right direction/38% wrong track) of the state were slightly more likely to think things we headed in the right direction, compared with voters in large (34% right direction/44% wrong track) and small cities (34% right direction/37% wrong track), who thought things were off on the wrong track.

MIcongeneric071518

Nearly half of Michigan likely voters say they will vote for a democratic candidate, compared to a third who will vote for a republican candidate. 4% said other/minor party, and 16% remain not sure.
Younger Millennials age 18-29 (53% democrat/27% republican), older Millennials age 25-34 (46% democrat/27% republican), Generation Z age 18-24 (53% democrat/38% republican), women (52% democrat/24% republican), African Americans (80% democrat/6% republican), large city voters (71% democrat/15% republican,) and voters who earn <$35k yearly (48%-53% democrat/26%-29% republican) were much more likely to support the democratic candidate for congress in 2018.

The race was much closer among voters who were men (41% democrat/42% republican), age 50-64 (39% democrat/38% republican), independents (25% democrat/23% republican), Catholics (46% democrat/35% republican), suburban voters (44% democrat/38% republican), rural voters (32% democrat/42% republican), and voters who earn between $35-50k annually (42% democrat/39% republican) and $100k-$150k annually (45% democrat/41% republican).

A significant amount of voters who identify as independent (39%), moderate (22%), and live in rural areas (22%) were not sure/will not vote. The groups most likely to vote for other/minor party were independents (13%) and African Americans (7%).

MIfinances071518

Almost twice as many Michigan likely voters thought their finances were better off (37%) than worse off (20%), compared to four years ago. Two in five said their personal finances were about the same as they were four years ago.

The Takeaways

  • The economy might be doing just well enough in states like Michigan and nationally, the last year and a half. This could help republicans blunt the damage from democrats winning additional seats in Congress. It's also possible republicans keep a majority in the House and Senate.
  • Democrats do have the advantage of many House republicans retiring this year. Our polling also shows almost as many voters trust democratic leaders with the economy and keeping America safe, as they do the president.
  • The president and republicans are doing well with swing voters like middle income voters, independents and suburban voters, in addition to their base-white, male, older and rural voters. The economic numbers with younger Millennials in the state of Michigan are not bad news for republicans and the president.
  • The economy will have to continue to grow around 3% or higher in the third quarter, and interest rates will have to remain unchanged by the Federal Reserve, if the president hopes to avoid a slowing economy, and democrats taking back both houses of congress. If democrats take back the House of Representatives, impeachment of the president might be on the table.
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