Almost half of African Americans think their finances will be better in four years
Zogby Analytics surveyed 354 Hispanic, 321 Asian and 357 African American likely voters nationwide. The poll was conducted online 6/4/18 -6/6/18, and has a MOE +/-5.2 percentage points per group.
We posed the following question to the minority over-samples of likely voters: How do you feel the next four years will be for the U.S. economy?
I. Hispanic likely voters and the economy
Overall, 43% of Hispanics feel the next four years will be excellent (12%) or good (31%) for the economy. Half (25% fair and 25% poor) think things will not be good for the U.S. economy in the next four years. Almost half of Hispanic men think the economy will be good (excellent and good combined) over the next four years; the same amount think things will not be good (fair and poor combined). Nearly two in five Hispanic women think the economy will be good the next four years, while half (51%) think things will be not be good for the U.S. economy. Only a third of Hispanic Millennials (18-29) think things will be positive for the U.S. economy the next four years, and 54% of Hispanic Millennials are not optimistic. Older Millennials and Generation X voters among Hispanics are more optimistic-- half think things will be good the next four years and 44% think the next four years economically will be not so great (fair and poor combined). The oldest age cohort, Hispanic voters aged 65+ were the second least optimistic, with 35% thinking the economy will be good the next four years, and 59% pessimistic.
Attitudes were also split along party lines when it came to Hispanic voters. Hispanic democrats viewed the next four years as a drag, as 61% said the economy would not be good (fair and poor combined) and 31% of democrats felt it would be good (excellent and good combined). Republican Hispanic voters were far more optimistic, 80% saw the economy the next four years as good, while one fifth did not see things that way. Independents were not as confident as republicans, but not as dour as democrats-- 40% of independents said the economy will be good the next four years, while 49% said the economy will not be good. Among our more unique demographic sub-groups, Hispanic NASCAR fans (64% good and 30% not good) were more positive about the economy the next four years, and this is also the case among social networkers (44% good and 52% not good), and Walmart shoppers (51% good and 43% not good).
II. Asian American voters and the economy
Overall, 39% of Asian American voters believe the next four years will be good for the economy and 53% think feel the economy will not be good the next four years. 43% of Asian American men voters think the economy will be good the next four years compared with 52% of Asian Americans men who think otherwise. Asian American women on the other hand were less likely than men to think the next four years would be good for the economy (35% good and 54% not good).
As for age, younger Asian American voters were more likely to think the economy would not be good compared to older Asian American voters. Millennial Asian American voters aged 18-29 (31% good and 52% not good) were not enthused about the economy the next four years as were older Asian voters aged 65+ (54% good and 36% not good).
Views on the economy were split along party lines. Asian democrats (28% good/62% not good) were not feeling good about the economy in four years, while republicans (75% good and 21% not good) were. Independent Asian voters (33% good and 59% not good) were also pessimistic, but not more than democrats. NASCAR fans (50% good and 43% not good) among Asians are more positive about the economy the next four years, and this is also the case among social networkers (42% good and 51% not good) and Walmart shoppers (52% good and 43% not good).
III. African American voters and the economy
Only a quarter of African American voters thought the economy would do well the next four years, while nearly two thirds thought the opposite. African American men (34% good and 58% not good) were more optimistic when it came to the economy over next four years compared to women (18% good and 70% not good). Millennial African American voters (39% good and 57% not good) were much more likely to view the next four years for the economy as good compared to older African American voters aged 50-64 (24% good and 69% not good). As for the political party of African American voters, there were not enough republican African American voters in the sample to make any comparisons. Independent African American voters (29% good and 55% not good) viewed the economy better over the next four years compared with democrats (22% good and 68% not good. NASCAR fans (47% good and 52% not good) and Walmart shoppers (35% good and 54% not good) were the most likely among African American voters to be optimistic about the economy in four years than other demographics.
IV. Conclusion
All three minority groups (Hispanics, African Americans and Asians) lean heavily democratic and should play a role in efforts by democrats to take back the house in the 2018 mid-terms. Majorities of Hispanic, Asian and African American voters sampled disapprove of president Trump, and do not feel the economy is going to be good over the next four years. It's no surprise that each group is not too optimistic about the economy, and does not approve of Donald Trump. What's interesting is that some Asian and Hispanic likely voters think things are going good economically, and are optimistic about their personal finances the next four years. 38% of Hispanics think their finances are better off than they were compared to four years ago and more than half are optimistic about their personal finances the next four years. Overall, 43% of Hispanics think things will be good economically the next four years. Among Asians, 39% think the economy will be good the next four years and a third say they are better off financially than they were compared to four years ago, while 43% say their finances are the same. A quarter of African Americans say their finances are better off than compared to four years ago and 46% think their finances will be better in four years. Even though President Trump receives little support from these groups, things might be going just good enough economically that he can scrape enough support from these groups, so that Republicans can retain control of Congress and Trump gets re-elected in 2020.