Saturday, September 22nd, 2018

The Trump
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Trump Approval

Trump Approval

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US Direction

The Zogby Poll®: Trump's job approval drops, but remains close to Obama's rating at the same point! More voters still trust Trump compared to Dems. with economy and security. More Millennials and Generation Z voters optimistic about the next four years.

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A new nationwide Zogby poll® of 878 likely voters in the U.S., conducted 6/04/18 -6/06/18 with a margin of error of +/-3.3%, shows Trump's job approval down slightly from our last poll in May, and slightly more voters trusting the President over democratic leaders when it comes to growing the economy and security. Since our May poll, democratic leaders have improved a few percentage points when it comes to voters trusting them to grow the economy and keep the country secure.

I. Trump's Job approval

Trump Job Approval June 4-6th, 2018 5/10/18 -5/12/18 2/27/18 -2/28/18
Strongly Approve 21% 22% 27%
Somewhat Approve 23% 24% 21%
Somewhat Disapprove 11% 15% 15%
Strongly Disapprove 41% 36% 35%
Not sure 4% 4% 3%

Our latest Zogby Analytics online nationwide survey of likely voters has the President's job approval numbers dropping slightly to 44% approve (strongly and somewhat approve combined) and 52% disapprove (strongly and somewhat disapprove combined), while 4% are not sure. When it came to the demographics and the president's job approval, there were no big surprises or movements: more men (47% approve/51% disapprove) approved of the president compared to fewer women (41% approve/53% disapprove).

President Trump's approval rating also continued to increase with the age of the voters. He still maintained decent numbers with younger voters: 40% of 18-29 year olds approved while 55% disapproved of his job as commander in chief. Among 30-49 year olds, 43% approved and 53% disapproved. Voters who were 50 and older were slightly more likely to approve of the president, which ranged from 45%-50% approval, while half of older voters (voters aged 50-64 and 65+) disapproved of President Trump.

The president's job approval numbers among Republicans was solid at 83%, while 14% of likely GOP voters disapproved of Trump's job as commander in chief. Regionally, the president's job approval numbers remained steady in the south (45% approve/50% disapprove) and central great lakes regions (44% approve/52% disapprove), while it improved slightly in the eastern (42% approve/53% disapprove) and western (43% approval/54% disapproval) regions.

When it came to geography, there were no big surprises regarding suburban (41% approve/55% disapprove) and rural voters (61% approve/36% disapprove), while large city voters (36% approve/57% disapprove) were much less likely to vote for Trump compared to small city voters (45% approve/53% disapprove). The president's approval rating among small city voters (defined as cities with population's less than 100k people) are important because small cities are prevalent in the rust belt area of the U.S, and these voters helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency in 2016.

The president did lose some support among upper income voters. Overall, our poll shows majorities of voters who earn anywhere from less than 25k annually to 100k annually disapprove of his job as president of the United States, while a narrow plurality (47%) of voters who earn more than 150k annually approve of his job, and nearly as many disapprove (46%).

One key area, which could help Trump and republicans in battleground states and in the rust-belt area of the U.S. during the midterms, is the fact that his numbers have improved with union voters; a majority (51%) approve while 47% disapprove. His approval numbers among union voters has see-sawed from the low forties to mid fifties percentage wise the last couple of years. His numbers are also pretty strong with social networkers-41% approve/55% disapprove. This is important in assessing Trump's capacity to win over voters because he has such a large following and expansive way of communicating with the public through his twitter account. The president's numbers also remain high with weekly Walmart shoppers (51% approve/45% disapprove) and NASCAR fans (61% approve/36% disapprove).

II. Economic indicators

How do you feel the next four years will be for the U.S. economy? June 4-6th, 2018 5/10/18 -5/12/18 2/27/18 -2/28/18
Excellent 17% 14% 22%
Good 31% 34% 29%
Fair 27% 29% 28%
Poor 17% 16% 14%
Not Sure 9% 7% 7%

Although Trump's job approval is not his best, it's close to where Barack Obama was (our June 21, 2010 job approval poll had Obama at 46% approve and 53% disapprove) going into his first mid-term. Another thing to consider is the fact that there are people who will not admit to anyone, even pollsters that they approve of Trump, or will vote for him. We call these people "silent Trump voters". Another important indicator on how Trump is performing is, if you look at Trump's current job approval and how voters feel the next four years will be for the U.S. economy, nearly half of all voters surveyed said they think things will be good the next four years for the U.S. economy (17% excellent and 31% good rating), while a third think things will not be good (27% fair and 17% poor), while 9% are not sure.

When we examine age sub-groups for this economic question, there is optimism among younger voters-48% of Millennials and Generation Z voters think things will be good for the U.S. economy the next four years, compared to 40% who think the opposite. 41% of independents are optimistic about the next four years, while 48% are pessimistic. The youngest voters, mostly Generation Z, 43% think things will be good in the next four years for the U.S. economy, while the same amount don't think things will be good. Almost the same amount (42%) of women think things will be going well for the US economy in the next four years, while 48% feel otherwise. If Trump has decent support among younger voters, women and independents in the low to mid forties, that's enough for him to possibly help republicans keep control of both houses and propel him to re-election in 2020.

Who do you trust more June 4th-6th 2018 5/10/18 -5/12/18

to grow the US economy?

To keep America safe?

To grow the US economy?

To keep America safe?
President Trump 39% 40% 41% 40%
Democratic Leaders 36% 39% 35% 38%
Not Sure 25% 22% 25% 22%

In addition to the economic indicators we examine to measure how well the president is performing with voters, we also track who voters trust most at growing the U.S. economy and keeping America safe. Both are important issues when voters decide who to vote for. If Trump can show that under his tenure there is peace and prosperity, he might be hard to beat in 2020 and republicans might be able to offset some loses and retain the House and Senate in the 2018 midterms.

When it comes to the economy, the numbers have tightened a little since we last polled who voters trust more to grow the economy; Trump holds a slight edge over democratic leaders, while a quarter of voters remain uncertain. More men (42% to 38% in favor of Trump) and women (36% to 35% in favor of Trump) trust Trump more than democrats, while slightly more 18-29 year old voters (45% to 32% in favor of democrats) and independents (31% to 29% in favor of democrats) trust democratic leaders over Trump to grow the economy. The president's numbers have dropped noticeably with men, younger voters and independents since May. A majority of NASCAR fans (54% to 29% in favor of Trump) and weekly Walmart shoppers (44% to 33% in favor of Trump) are more prone to trust the president compared to democratic leaders.

The other issue we tested had to do with keeping America safe. President Trump and democratic leaders were statistically tied (Trump-40% and democratic leaders-39%). More men trust Trump than democratic leaders on the issue of security (43% to 39% in favor of Trump), while more women (39% to 36%), younger voters (43% to 35%) and independents (34% to 31%) trust democratic leaders to keep America safe compared with the president. Walmart shoppers (46% to 34% in favor of Trump), and NASCAR fans (55% to 29% in favor of Trump) trust the president more than democrats on the issue of security.

III. The Takeaways

President Trump is doing well enough among his base-men, older voters aged 50+, Walmart Shoppers, NASCAR fans, voters without college degrees, rural voters, small city voters, plus voters in general are happy with their current finances, and optimistic about the next four years for the economy. It's possible Trump's hold on the Republican Party can blunt the damage democrats can cause in the upcoming midterms, and help republicans maintain control of both houses of congress.

Since our last poll in May, democrats have closed in on the president's lead when it comes to who voters trust on issues of growing the economy and security.

The President Trump will need to get his numbers in the mid to high forties percentage wise regarding who voters trust more growing the economy and security among voters aged 18-29, women, and independents. Trump will also need to receive strong support from his base to prevent democrats from making serious gains in the November congressional mid-term elections.

Trump's doing alright regarding his job approval rating and is slightly more trusted with growing the economy and security than democratic leaders. He is also benefitting from a decent economy, a low unemployment rate and an inflated stock market. All of these factors can change pretty quickly, but with many voters impressed with the president's recent summit with North Korea, a blue wave and republican disaster in November is not such a sure thing at the moment.

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