Saturday, June 23rd, 2018

The Trump
Era

Trump Approval

Trump Approval

US Direction

US Direction

The Zogby Poll®: If voters had to re-cast their 2016 presidential vote, Trump and Clinton would be tied at 40%; 20% say they would vote for a minor party! A majority of voters do not believe Trump deserves Nobel peace prize if he achieves peace in Korea

Font Size:
Share Button

2016redo

A new Zogby Analytics® online nationwide poll of 881 likely voters conducted 5/10/2018-5/12/2018 shows voters are still split on who they would vote for during the presidential election of 2016 if they could re-cast their ballots. Astonishingly, 20% would now vote for an independent or minor party candidate, which could be a boost for parties such as the Green and Libertarians in the 2020 presidential election.

The results of the question "if you could go back in time and vote in the 2016 presidential election" are similar to the actual results of the 2016 election if you consider neither Trump nor Clinton captured a majority of the popular vote; Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by a few million votes and Donald Trump won what matters-the electoral college, by a wide margin. As for the demographics, when we asked this question Trump still won men (Trump leads 45%-39%) and among women he closed the gap (Clinton leads 40%-36%). Clinton was strongest with groups such as Millennials ages 18-29 (Clinton leads 41%-31%), younger Millennials ages 18-24 (Clinton leads 43%-33%), independents (Clinton narrowly leads 32%-31%), lower income voters (Clinton wins within the margin of error), creative sector (STEM) voters (Clinton wins 42%-38%), and suburban voters (Clinton wins 42%-38%). Trump did better with middle income voters (Trump wins within the margin of error), weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump wins 45%-39%), NASCAR fans (Trump wins 54%-33%), and small city voters (Trump wins 41%-36%).

All of these groups are of particular importance because they leaned democratic during the Obama presidency; Trump was able to win enough of their votes in 2016, in essence chipping away large leads that defeated previous republican nominees John McCain and Mitt Romney. Why is this relevant? In order to be a viable contender a democratic nominee such as Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Oprah or a talented new-comer such as Senators Kamala Harris or Cory Booker will need to establish much larger leads among these important groups. The fact that one fifth or one quarter of likely voters would vote for an independent or minor party candidate if they could go back and vote in 2016 is not good for either major party. It could represent a real enthusiasm gap for democratic candidates in the 2018 mid-terms and beyond. There is enough time to turn it around for democrats but President Trump might actually be able to blunt the damage and get his base fired-up enough to retain a small majority in both houses of congress. One thing is for certain-- issues such as women's equality, sexual harassment, and gun violence can swing things back in favor for democrats from now until the November election.

trumppeaceprize

A majority (53%) of likely voters do not think President Donald Trump deserves the Nobel peace prize if he were able to achieve a multi-lateral peace deal between the United States, North Korea, and South Korea. Slightly less (47%) say 'yes' the president would be deserving of the peace prize.

As for who supports the idea of Trump potentially winning a Nobel peace prize, his base is more likely to support the idea. Men were more likely than women to support the idea of Trump winning the honor. Age also played a factor: people over age 50 were likely to think the President would be deserving of the prestigious award, as opposed to likely voters under age 50, especially voters aged 18-29 (37% yes and 64% no) who did not think Trump was deserving of the peace prize.

Amazingly, a quarter of democrats said 'yes' that if Trump secured peace on the Korean peninsula he would deserve the Nobel peace prize, compared to three quarters of democrats who said 'no.' The numbers were almost opposite for republicans-four in five said 'yes' and one in five said 'no.' Three in five independents said 'no' as compared with 30% who said 'yes.' Likely voters earning $150k annually (58% 'yes' and 42% 'no') and investor class voters (55% 'yes' and 45% 'no') were more likely to support the idea of the President receiving a Nobel peace prize than likely voters living in large (42% 'yes' and 58%' no') and small cities (46% 'yes' and 54% 'no').

Majorities of lower income voters who earn less than $25k annually (40%' yes' and 60% 'no') and up to $35k annually (49%' yes' and 51% 'no') did not fancy the idea of Trump getting a Nobel peace prize for securing peace with North Korea.

On the other hand, a majority of NASCAR fans (58% 'yes' and 42% 'no') and Walmart shoppers (53% 'yes' and 47% 'no'), who have been staunch supporters of Trump since his announcement to run for president, thought he should win the peace prize if he achieves a multi-lateral peace deal between the U.S., North Korea, and South Korea.

Copyright