Zogby Analytics conducted a nationwide online survey of 881 likely voters in the US. The survey was conducted 05/10/2018 - 05/12/2018. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 881 is +/- 3.2 percentage points.
In our latest poll, we re-analyzed voters' attitudes concerning potential 2020 presidential election horse races. We found Donald Trump is still losing considerably against seasoned politicians, Joe Biden (48% to 38% in favor of Biden), Bernie Sanders (48% to 37% in favor of Sanders), Elizabeth Warren (43% to 37% in favor of Warren), and former first lady Michelle Obama (48% to 39% in favor of Obama). The president is in much closer races with political newcomers Senators Kamala Harris-D-CA (Trump leads 39%-35%) and Cory Booker-D-NJ (both are tied 38%). In key match-ups between President Trump and Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, each democratic candidate has lost up to at least five percent since our last poll in January. In contrast, Trump has not fully capitalized on the decreased support for democrats, and has stayed at or near the same percentage as in our January poll. But he has chipped away the lead of democrats with some key groups.
Even though Oprah Winfrey has denied she is running for president, the mogul and former queen of daytime television defeats President Trump among likely voters 53% to 47%. This is stable since our last time tracking the horse race in January of 2018. The numbers then were 54% to 46% in favor of Oprah. For this question we offered only the two candidates as options. We wanted to see who would pick up voters on the fence, and to no surprise, it was Oprah Winfrey. Trump has gained the support of men since our last poll in January, and some of Oprah's numbers among key constituents are down, such as lower income voters, Millennials and African Americans.
Oprah continues to win a majority or plurality among almost every sub-group, including Democratic stalwarts, such as younger voters (aged 18-24 years old-65%), African Americans (90%), Hispanics (63%), Asians (80%), women (50%) and independent (55%). She also has a majority of support among the groups who helped Donald Trump win the presidency-Independents (55%) and voters with no college degree (51%). Men (54%) are more likely to support Trump, which is a reversal from the majority (51%) of support Oprah received from men in January. Voters who earn up to $100,000 a year support Oprah over Trump, while those earning more than $100,000 annually support Trump. The president does well among Walmart shoppers (Trump wins 54%-46%) and NASCAR fans (Trump wins 59%-41%).
In the match-up between President Trump and Bernie Sanders, the senator from Vermont received a narrow majority (52%) of voters in January but has since dropped to 48%, while Trump receives nearly 37% of voters, down from 40% in January. Sanders does better than Trump with women (50%-40%), younger voters aged 18-24 (51%-20%) and 18-29 (53%-28%). Among voters aged 50-64, Sanders wins 47%-41%. The senator from Vermont also wins with majorities of Hispanics (59%) and African American likely voters (80%). Among white voters, Trump wins 46%-41%, and as per usual Trump beats Sanders among voters aged 65+ (49%-40%) and rural voters (58%-31%), while Sanders wins Catholic voters 48% to 36% (Trump was previously winning this category). Among small city voters, both Sanders and Trump are tied at 42%.
Sanders does the most damage to Trump among men (Sanders is winning 47% to 42%), and beats the president significantly with Independents (46%-30%). Trump wins with NASCAR fans (52% to 42%) and Walmart shoppers, 44%-43%. All in all, Sanders numbers are down slightly outside the margin of error this time around, especially with many key groups such as Millennials, Walmart shoppers and minorities.
When we examine Trump vs. former vice president Joe Biden, Biden beats the president 48% to 38%, down from 53%-38% in January. Joe Biden, like Bernie Sanders, is favored among younger voters aged 18-24 (50%-27%), voters aged 18-29 (48%-29%), women (48%-33%), independents (45%-29%), and all minority groups. Compared with our January results, President Trump has made gains with younger voters and women. President Trump struggles against Biden because Biden beats the president with his base of voters-those who frequently shop at Walmart (43% to 42%) and voters with no college education (Biden leads 44% to 40%), while Trump wins 53% to 39% with NASCAR fans. All these categories have tightened between the two candidates since January, but Biden still leads with most groups, especially important groups that are favorable to Trump.
Since our last poll, Michelle Obama has a comfortable 9% lead-the former first lady beats Trump 48% to 39%, up from 49%-42% in January. The reason for the race favoring Michelle Obama is that the former first lady does make the same inroads that Sanders and Biden make with groups that supported the president, such as independents (Obama leads 43% to 32%) and voters without a college degree (Obama leads 46% to 41%), 18-29 year olds (Obama leads 56% to 30%) and voters aged 18-24 (Obama leads 62% to 27%). Trump wins with white voters-48% to 39% and among older voters aged 65+ by double digits, NASCAR fans (Trump wins 53%-37%), and Walmart shoppers (Trump wins 46%-42%). Trump also wins voters in the South (Trump wins 46%-44%) and Central Great Lakes regions (Trump wins 46%-42%) region. A majority of union (58%), east (57%) and west (52%) voters back Michelle Obama much more than the president.
Our polling of a potential showdown between Trump and liberal favorite Senator Elizabeth Warren has fluctuated over the last few months. Some time ago she led Trump by as many as 9 points, but the race tightened in recent months. She currently leads the president by 6 points. Among independents, Warren beats Trump 37% to 28% (down 11% since January), and with voters who do not have a college education, they now support Trump (40%-39%) compared to January when Warren bested Trump, 47% to 41%. Warren also does not do as well with younger voters as do her other democratic counterparts. Warren receives 48% of 18-29 year old voters (down 10%). Trump beats Warren among Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 42% to 39%). Warren had previously led among Walmart Shoppers in January.
Trump does better against political newcomers Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Cory Booker. Trump beats Kamala Harris and ties with Cory Booker in hypothetical 2020 horse races.
Overall, the data points to Trump making gains with his base and key groups such as NASCAR fans and Walmart shoppers. The President is also making small gains with key democratic groups such as Millennials, Generation Z, independents and women, while his democratic rivals are losing ground with these groups. This is all simultaneously happening while republicans are making gains against democrats regarding the congressional midterms.
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