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The Zogby Poll® Oprah, Biden, Sanders and Warren easily defeat Trump in 2020; Trump in closer races with Harris, Zuckerberg, and Obama

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Zogby Analytics conducted a nationwide online survey of 847 likely voters in the US. The survey was conducted 01/12/2018 - 01/15/2018. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 847 is +/- 3.4 percentage points.

In our latest poll, we re-analyzed voters' attitudes concerning potential 2020 presidential election horse races. We found Donald Trump is losing considerably against seasoned politicians, Joe Biden (53% to 38% in favor of Biden), Bernie Sanders (51% to 39% in favor of Sanders), Elizabeth Warren (50% to 40% in favor of Warren) and former first lady Michelle Obama (49% to 42% in favor of Obama). The president is in much closer races with political newcomers Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Facebook Founder Mark Zuckerberg, both races are virtual ties.

In a hypothetical election that becomes more realistic by the day, the mogul and former queen of daytime television, Oprah Winfrey defeats President Trump among likely voters 54% to 46%. This is stable since our last time tracking the horse race in March of 2017. The numbers were 46% to 36% in favor of Oprah, with 18% not sure. For this question we offered only the two candidates as options. We wanted to see who would pick up voters on the fence, and to no surprise, it was Oprah Winfrey.

Oprah continues to win a majority or plurality among almost every sub-group, including Democratic stalwarts, such as younger voters (aged 18-24 years old-77%), African Americans (95%), Hispanics (65%), Asians (56%), women (58%) and independent (55%). She also has a majority of support among the groups who helped Donald Trump win the presidency-Independents (55%), voters with no college degree (54%) and men (51%). Voters who earn up t $75,000 a year support Oprah over Trump, while those earning more than $100,000 annually support Trump.

In the match-up between President Trump and Bernie Sanders, the senator from Vermont receives a narrow majority (52%) of voters, while Trump receives nearly 40% of voters. Sanders does better than Trump with women (51%-40%), younger voters aged 18-24 (71%-14%), 18-29 (55%-29%), Walmart shoppers (46%-45%); among voters aged 50-64, Trump wins 46%-44%. Sanders also wins with majorities of Hispanics (66%) and African Americans (85%). Among white voters, both are tied at 45%, and as per usual Trump beats Sanders among voters aged 65+ (48%-44%), Catholic voters (51%-43%), and rural voters (50%-37%).

Sanders does the most damage to Trump among men (Sanders is winning 52% to 37%), and beats the president significantly with independents (50%-35%). Bernie Sanders also wins with NASCAR fans 51% to 42%.

When we examine Trump vs. former vice president Joe Biden, Biden beats the president 53% to 38%. Joe Biden, like Bernie Sanders, is favored among younger voters aged 18-24 (73%-6%), voters aged 18-29 (59%-22%), women (53%-38%), independents (47%-33%), and all minority groups. President Trump struggles against Biden because Biden beats the president with his base of voters-those who frequently shop at Walmart (44% to 42%), NASCAR fans (47% to 43%) and voters with no college education (Biden leads 49% to 40%).

Things become much closer when we test Michelle Obama against Trump, but unlike our last poll; Michelle Obama has a comfortable 7% lead-the former first lady wins against Trump 49% to 42%. The reason for the race now favoring Michelle Obama is that the former first lady does make the same inroads that Sanders and Biden make with groups that supported the president, such as independents (Obama leads 48% to 37%) and voters without a college degree (Obama leads 47% to 44%). Trump wins with white voters--50% to 41% and among older voters 50+ by double digits. A majority of union voters back Michelle Obama much more (53%) than the president (35%)

Our polling of a potential showdown between Trump and liberal favorite Senator Elizabeth Warren has fluctuated over the last few months. Some time ago she led Trump by as many as 9 points, but the race tightened in recent months. She currently leads the president by 10 points. Among independents, Warren beats Trump 49% to 35%, and with voters who do not have a college education, Warren bests Trump, 47% to 41%. Warren also does do as well with younger voters as do her other democratic counterparts. Warren receives 58% of 18-29 year old voters. Warren also beats Trump among Walmart shoppers (Warren leads 47% to 42%).

Trump does better against political newcomers Senator Kamala Harris and Facebook Founder Mark Zuckerberg. Trump still loses in both hypothetical match-ups by a point but the match-ups are much closer because each democratic hopeful does not do as well as Oprah, Biden, Sanders, and Warren with younger voters, independents and women voters. Even though Harris and Zuckerberg are much closer races for President Trump, he still needs to make-up huge ground against the heavyweights of the Democratic party.

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