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The Zogby Poll℠: Sanders and Biden dominate Trump; Obama and Warren in tight races with the president

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Zogby Analytics conducted a hybrid (live interviewer telephone and online) survey of 1,514 likely voters in the US. The survey was conducted 10/19/2017 - 10/25/2017. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,514 is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

In our latest poll, we analyzed voters' attitudes concerning potential 2020 presidential election match-ups. We found Donald Trump is in close races against Senator Elizabeth Warren and former first lady Michelle Obama. We also see the president in difficult match-ups with Senator Bernie Sanders and former vice president Joe Biden.

In the match-up between President Trump and Bernie Sanders, the senator from Vermont receives a narrow majority of voters, while Trump receives 40% of voters. Sanders does better than Trump with women (56%-35%), younger voters age 18-24 (69%-27%), 18-29 (64%-30%), Walmart shoppers (47%-42%), voters age 50-64 (46%-44%), Amazon shoppers (51%-41%) and all minorities. As per usual Trump beats Sanders among voters age 65+ (53%-40%) NASCAR fans (47%-46%), Catholic voters (49%-43%), and rural voters (53%-36%).

Sanders does the most damage to Trump among men (both tied at46%), and beats him significantly with Independents (51%-36%). Bernie Sanders also cuts into Trump's lead with older voters and NASCAR fans.

When we examine Trump vs. former vice president Joe Biden, Biden beats the president 50% to 40%. Joe Biden, like Bernie Sanders, is favored among younger voters age 18-24 (74%-18%), voters age 18-29 (60%-31%), women (57%-34%), Independents (50%-37%), and all minority groups. President Trump struggles against Biden because Biden is able to tap into the president's base of voters who frequently shop at Walmart (tied at 46%), voters age 50-64 (Biden leads 47% to 43%) and voters with no college education (Biden leads 47% to 42%).

When we test Michelle Obama against Trump, the potential 2020 race tightens. The former first lady barely wins outside the margin of error. The reason for the tightening of the race between President Trump and Michelle Obama is that the former first lady does not make the same inroads that Sanders and Biden make with groups that supported the president such as Independents (Obama leads 44% to 43%) older voters age 50-64 (Trump leads 49% to 42%) and voters without a college degree (Trump leads 47% to 45%). Amongst Amazon shoppers, Obama is in a close race with the president leading 47% to 46%.

Our polling of a potential showdown between Trump and liberal favorite Senator Elizabeth Warren has fluctuated over the last few months. Some time ago she led Trump by as many as 9 points, but the race has tightened in recent months. She currently leads the president by 2 points. Like Michelle Obama Warren does well with the democratic base of women, younger voters and minorities but not as well as Biden, Sanders and Obama. She also does not cut into Trump's lead among groups who supported Trump in 2016, mainly voters age 50-64 voters; Trump beats Warren 46% to 41%. Among independents, Trump and Warren both receive 40%, and with voters who do not have a college education, Trump bests Warren 46% to 40%. Warren also does not do as well with younger voters as do her other democratic counterparts. Warren receives 53% of 18-29 year old voters, while her democratic rivals receive 60% and above. Warren does beat Trump among Amazon shoppers (Warren leads 47% to 44%) and keeps it close among Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 46% to 42%).

Please click here to view the methodology statement.

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