Saturday, November 17th, 2018

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The Zogby Poll: Trump wins back base! Makes gains among younger voters

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A new Zogby Analytics online survey of 834 likely US voters shows Trump's approval rating at 43%, while 53% disapprove, which is close to his August numbers of 45% approve/51% disapprove. The margin of error for this survey was +/- 3.4 percentage points. These percentages represent numbers combined among "strongly" and "somewhat" attributes for President Trump's approval/disapproval rating.

On the heels of recent political victories such as working with Democrats in getting aid for victims of Hurricane Harvey, and raising the debt ceiling until mid-December, the president will now hit the road and pitch his tax reform package to the public on a blistering 13 city tour. Will there be more successes for Trump? It's hard to tell because of the unpredictability of his presidency so far, but this is a step in the right direction. The big take away from this poll is that since reaching lows in popularity with his base in the last few months, Trump has regained support from some of his main base groups, but not all of them.

Gender

Trump's numbers have always been strongest among men, while a majority of women tended to disapprove of him; although on occasion he has closed the gender gap. We continue to see a strong majority (58%) of women voters disapprove (strongly and somewhat combined) and 37% of women approve. On the other hand, his numbers have rebounded slightly with men; more men now approve (50%) of the president than disapprove (47%).

Age/generation

It's common knowledge that younger voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the President. But since his announcement of his candidacy and his improbable ascent to the presidency, Trump has at times made inroads with younger voters. In our September poll, more young voters age 18-29 disapprove (56%), while 38% approve of the President's job so far. The takeaway here is the number of young/millennial voters who approve of Trump has jumped 12% since our May poll. The president also did well among the Millennial crowd of voters age 25-34; 40% approve of Trump, while 57% disapprove.

Trump has always enjoyed support from older voters--50-64 year olds and voters age 65+. Among voters age 50-64, 46% approve of Trump, while 49% disapprove, which is unchanged. Trump's numbers this time improved with voters younger than 35 and have rebounded with voters older than 65; now a majority approve (54%) compared to 43% who disapprove of President Trump's job.

Party

President Trump's numbers are steady among Republicans at 81% approval and 18% disapproval in our latest poll. Among Independents, the president's numbers continue to be damaged--in May he enjoyed 46% approval and 47% disapproval. Now only a third (32%) approve while 60% disapprove of his job as commander in chief.

Race

We also oversampled minority voters to better look at the President's support levels. Trump does not even get a majority support among white voters. 49% of white voters approve versus 47% who disapprove. Interestingly, even after the Justice Department's decision to reverse Obama's executive order regarding the "Dreamers", a third of Hispanics in our oversample of 360 voters approve of Trump while 65% disapprove of him. Among African Americans (347 voters), 23% approve and 73% disapprove of his job so far. As we have seen before, Trump's numbers improve significantly among young African American voters, 42% approve and 53% disapprove. This number is up significantly since our last oversample in July; at that time 33% approved and 57% disapproved. Among 240 Asian American voters surveyed, Trump's approval stands at 31% approve and 61% who disapprove. This is consistent with the last time we sampled as many Asian voters.

Zogby Analytics Sub-groups

NASCAR fans (60% approve/38% disapprove) and weekly Walmart shoppers (51% approve/46% disapprove) continue to support President Trump. Again, among a core group of supporters, NASCAR fans, there has been an increase in his approval rating. When it comes to voters' finances, we test specific categories such are you at a job that pays less (49% approve/47% disapprove); are you afraid of losing a job (43% approve/56% disapprove); are your finances better (50% approval/49% disapprove) or worse off (33% approve/63% disapprove) compared to four years ago. Among these categories, President Trump has improved his support. Of those voters who work in the creative job sector of STEM jobs, 51% approve versus 48% who disapprove, which is also consistent from May's poll.

Geography

President Trump made gains with voters in large cities (42% approve/55% disapprove), small cities (52% approve/45% disapprove), and rural areas (50% approve/42% disapprove). The president did lose support in the suburbs, 36% of voters approve and 60% disapprove. This was a 10% decrease in support among suburban voters since our last poll.

Please click here to view the methodology statement.

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