A new Zogby Analytics online survey of 834 likely US voters, including a subset of 356 likely Democratic presidential primary voters, reveals Democratic primary voters are still excited about the prospect of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders winning the nomination. We tested a potential primary showdown among an expanded list of 2020 Democratic hopefuls (please see chart below) and the Independent Senator from Vermont still maintains his momentum among Democrats, which had him in a close fight against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic race for the nomination.
In addition to testing a hypothetical 2020 Democratic presidential primary, we also examined how well the unofficial candidates performed among their minority base; oversamples of minority Democratic presidential primary voters were also conducted. Let's begin with the overall vote: Bernie Sanders (Ind. Senator Vt.) leads (28%) his closest competitors, former Vice President Joe Biden (17%) and Elizabeth Warren (Democratic Senator Mass.-12%). No other name receives double digits, but nearly a quarter of primary voters are not sure who they would vote for. Senator Sanders is the most popular candidate among almost every sub-group. There are instances where Biden and Warren outshine Sanders, such is the case with older voters (age 50+), where Biden is more popular or in the case of creative class voters-working in STEM or other professional sectors-who favor Warren.
Among the democratic base, which consists of women voters, younger voters, voters living in large cities and many minority voters; Sanders performs well among all of these groups. Among women, Sanders beat Warren with a ratio of more than 3 to 1 and Biden almost 2 to 1.
When it came to younger Millennial voters age 18-29, Sanders (42%) dominates. He beats Warren (22%) nearly 2 to 1 and Joe Biden (12%) 3 to 1.
This pattern changes among African American primary voters. Among our oversample of 247 African American Democratic presidential primary voters, Biden is the clear favorite at 31%, followed by Sanders (19%) and there is a three way tie between Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Mark Zuckerberg at 6% each. It must be noted a quarter of voters (26%) were not sure of who they would vote for. The former vice president leads every meaningful African American subgroup, including younger African American voters, while Sanders trails in second place among almost every sub-group. Sanders does tighten things up to a virtual tie among African Americans who have a college degree and African American men.
We also conducted an oversample of Hispanic (240 primary voters) and Asian Democratic presidential primary voters (121 voters). When we examine Hispanic Democratic primary voters, Bernie Sanders (41%) is back on top. He dominates Joe Biden (14%) and Elizabeth Warren (6%). This trend also continues among all meaningful Hispanic primary sub-groups; Sanders gets a whopping 71% among younger Hispanic primary voters age 18-29. Bernie Sanders also beats Warren and Biden, both 2 to 1 among Asian Democratic presidential primary voters.