Saturday, July 29th, 2017

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The Zogby Poll: Trump Supporters Dump Trump!

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Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1,031 likely voters in the US between the dates 6/9/17 - 6/12/17. Thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's job as president?
1. Strongly approve 18%
2. Somewhat approve 23
3. Somewhat disapprove 14
4. Strongly disapprove 41
5. Not sure   5

The President's approval rating (strongly and somewhat combined) is down from 43% last month to 40% this round of polling, which is within the margin of error. Currently a solid majority of likely voters (55%) disapprove of Trump's job as president, while 5% are not sure. Below is analysis of President Trump's approval rating among important sub-groups.

trumpapproval061517

Gender

Since Donald Trump officially announced his candidacy, there has been a noticeable gender divide in terms of his support among men and women. Trump's numbers have always been strongest among men, while a majority of women tended to disapprove of him; although on occasion he has closed the gender gap. Six months into his presidency and we continue to see a strong majority (57%-unchanged from our May poll) of women voters disapprove (strongly and somewhat combined) and 38% of women approve. On the other hand, more men now disapprove (53%) of the president than approve (42%). This is a major change since our last poll, when a majority of men (52%) approved of the president. This may be troubling for the President as his base is largely male. Without the approval of a majority of men, his reelection chance is slim.

Age/generation

It's been known that younger voters have overwhelmingly disapproved of the President's performance. In our latest poll younger voters disapprove (67%), while only 26% approve of the President's job so far. But the number of younger/millennial voters who disapprove has jumped 14% since our May poll. Trump has always enjoyed support from older voters--50-64 year olds and age 65+. This base is also crumbling. Among voters age 50-64, 47% approve of Trump, while 50% disapprove, which is unchanged. Since we began tracking his approval during the primaries and general election, a majority of older voters 65+ have approved of his performance; now a majority disapprove (56%) compared to 40% who approve of President Trump's job so far. Trump still maintains support among the oldest voting bloc 70+--51% approve compared to 42% who disapprove.

Religion

Born Again and Evangelical voters have been key groups who have strongly supported the President, who appealed to them on the campaign trail; he has also enjoyed majority support among Catholic and Protestant voters. But in our latest poll of US voters, Trump has lost support among Catholic (52% disapprove/42% approve) and Protestant voters (49% approve/47% disapprove). A month ago, President Trump enjoyed 56% and 51% approval among Catholics and Protestant respectively.

Party

President Trump's numbers have dipped among Republicans from 83% approval in May to 79% approval in our latest poll. Among Independents, the president's numbers have also been damaged--in May he enjoyed 46% approval and 47% disapproval. Now only a third (33%) approve while 59% disapprove of his job as president. This may be very damaging because many of these voters helped him win in the Central Great Lakes region and states referred to as the "blue wall" during the general election.

Race

Trump also does not even get a majority support among white voters. 47% of white voters approve versus 49% who disapprove. In our poll in May, Trump did well with Hispanics, despite his rhetoric about walls and deportation; 45% approved and 51% disapproved of his job as president. Not the case anymore. Now only a third of Hispanics (33%) approve, while 54% disapprove. Overwhelming majorities of African American and Asian voters continue to disapprove of President Trump's job as president.

Region

Regionally, President Trump continues to receive somewhat high marks from voters in the South region (49%). When it came to the type of area voters live in, voters in small cities (48%) and rural areas (53%) approve of President Trump's job as president, while only 31% of voters approve and 67% disapprove who live in large cities. These numbers are mainly unchanged from May. More voters in the suburbs disapprove (57%) of Trump than approve (38%). Among voters in suburbs, there was 10% increase among those who disapprove compared with last month's poll.

Zogby Analytics Sub-groups

NASCAR fans (54% approve/40% disapprove), weekly Walmart shoppers (51% approve/43% disapprove) continue to support President Trump. Again, among a core group of supporters, NASCAR fans, there has been a 10% decrease in his approval rating. When it comes to voters' finances, we test specific categories such are you at a job that pays less (42% approval); are you afraid of losing a job (40% approval); are your finances better (45% approval) or worse off (40% approval) compared to four years ago. Among these categories, President Trump does not receive majority support. Of those voters who work in the creative job sector of STEM jobs, 37% approve versus 59% who disapprove, which is also consistent from May's poll

The Takeaways

  • Why have Trump's numbers dipped so much? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize his administration has been mired by one controversy after another and it doesn't seem to be going away anytime soon.
  • He has yet to drain the swamp and get any of his agenda passed. This does not look to improve on the horizon.
  • The economy has not been taking off, though markets are chasing new highs, this does not necessarily improve the finances of working class and middle class voters.
  • The Trump administration has nearly a thousand government officials that have not been put into posts throughout many agencies and areas of the government which are important cogs for getting things done.
  • These and other factors such as negative media coverage, sensitive information leaked, and the constant infighting among Republicans and Democrats could be a real turnoff to voters. The President will need some really big victories regarding the Russia probe and legislatively in the remainder of the year, or he could be a lame duck president his whole first term. It's not completely over for him yet but it sure seems that way based on the data from this most recent poll. Washington DC will get only hotter and hotter this summer while both parties hold Trump's feet to the fire.
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