Thursday, April 27th, 2017

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Part II--Post election poll results

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Several key factors drive Trump win; a plurality of voters not positive about future

When did you make your decision for whom to vote for President?

A year ago 26%
More than a month ago 39
During the presidential debates 18
In the last week before voting 8
In the 24 hours before voting 4
In the voting booth 3
Not sure 3

A plurality (39%) of voters decided more than a month ago for whom they were going to vote for President. Nearly two in ten decided during the presidential debates, while 15% decided within a week of the election. There are not many differences among sub-groups in how each made up their minds, and for the most part most sub-groups fall in line with the overall results. Some interesting deviations from the norm are younger voters--(18-29 years old) being more likely (24%) to make up their minds for whom they were going to vote during the presidential debates, compared to only 12% of voters aged 65+. 18-24 year olds (28%) are also more likely to have made up their minds during the debates. Trump supporters (11%) were more likely to decide in the last week of the election, compared with only 4% of Clinton supporters. Independents (13%) were more likely to decide in the last week compared to Democrats (3%) and Republicans (9%). Among ethnic groups, more African Americans (41%) made up their minds a year ago compared to Asians (21%). More weekly Walmart shoppers (24%) made up their minds on who they voted for during the debates compared to voters who never shop at Walmart (10%).

What was the top issue in your vote for President?

Economy/jobs 32%
Taxes 5
Syria 1
Immigration 7
Trust/Truthfulness 11
Terrorism 8
The Environment 5
Energy 1
The budget deficit 6
Social security 6
Medicare/Medicaid 4
Obamacare 8
Other (specify) 8

Almost a third of surveyed respondents, said the economy was the top issue for their vote in our poll, which was also reflected in the 2016 exit polls. Trust/truthfulness (11%) was the next most important issue and the only other option to be in double digits among those surveyed. Younger voters, aged 18-29, were more concerned with the issue of the environment (13%) compared to overall voters (5%). The economy was more on the minds of voters aged 30-49 (42%) more than those of 18-29 year olds (27%) or older voters-50-64 year olds (31%). Voters with college degrees (38%) are more likely than voters without college degrees (26%) to have the issue of the economy weigh on their votes.

When it came to the party of voters, Independents are more concerned about Terrorism (13%) and trust/truthfulness (16%). Democrats and Republicans stayed in line with the overall numbers-six percent of Democrats were concerned about terrorism and ten percent said trust/truthfulness was the most important election issue when it came to their votes, while 7% and 8% of Republicans were concerned about the terrorism and trust/truthfulness respectively.

When it comes to ethnicity, African Americans were much more likely (50%) to be concerned about economy/jobs compared to whites (29%), Hispanics (34%) and Asians (45%). It must be noted that Trump did slightly improve his numbers with minorities compared to Mitt Romney in 2012. According to exit polls, Trump improved upon Romney in all of these groups in 2016.

Another cantankerous issue during the election was Obamacare. Overall, 8% of voters said this was the most important issue regarding their vote. This was also true of voters who were union members (11%) and who live in rural areas (11%). Both sub-groups are prevalent in rust belt states which helped elect Trump.

Did the re-opening of the investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server have a negative impact, positive impact or no impact on your feelings toward Hillary Clinton as a candidate for President?

Negative impact 30%
Positive impact 8
No impact 58
Not sure 4

Three in ten voters surveyed said the re-opening of the investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server had a negative impact toward their feeling of candidate Clinton. This is in comparison to a solid majority (58%) who said it did not impact their feelings at all. The issue was split along party lines. Supporters of Trump (46%) were more likely to have negative feelings toward Clinton because of the reopening of the investigation, compared to only 14% of Clinton supporters.

Independents (38%) and Republicans (37%) were more likely to be negatively impacted compared with Democrats (16%).

Region also plays an issue in how voters feel about the FBI's re-opening of the investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server. East region voters were most likely to feel the investigation had no impact (63%), while they are also least likely to think the reopening of the investigation had a negative impact (23%). Conversely, the Central great lakes region was most likely to be negatively impacted at 39%, and these voters were least likely to have felt no impact (53%) from the issue.

Household income is another area where there are differences in how voters felt about Clinton's email server and the FBI's investigation. Lower income voters--$25-35K annually (26%) were less likely to be negatively impacted by Clinton's investigation and more likely to not be impacted (53%) compared with voters who earn $150K+ annually (43%--negative impact and 44%--no impact).

One of the many economic indicators we track is "Regarding your personal finances, do you think in four years you will be"…Those voters who say worse off, were more likely to have been negatively impacted (41%), compared with voters who say better off (29%) and about the same (25%). Voters who will be about the same (64%) are also more likely to be not impacted compared with voters who will be better off (59%) and worse off (49%) in four years.

Did your decision to vote for President in the 2016 general election have anything to do with your anger and resentment toward Washington DC elites and special interests?

Yes 38%
No 52
Not sure 10

Men (46%) were more likely to be angry toward the ruling class in DC than women (31%). On the contrary, women (60%) were more likely to not vote angry toward the establishment compared to men (45%). There were other areas where numbers among certain groups were up compared to other sub-groups and overall figures. A plurality (47%) of Independents and Republicans (54%) were angry about the chaos in DC when they voted compared to a much smaller number of Democrats (18%). There were also differences in anger toward elites when it came to age, race, and income. The youngest part of the electorate, 18-24 year old voters, were less likely to be angry toward DC (30%) compared with more than half of the oldest segment of the population-voters aged 70+. White voters had more frustration toward DC compared with African American (20%), Asian (21%) and Hispanic voters (28%).

Low income voters (less than $25K annually) did not vote with as much anger (28% yes, 60% no) compared with upper income voters making more than $150k+ annually (48% yes, 46% no).

How do you feel the next four years will be for the U.S.?

Excellent 9%
Good 32
Fair 14
Poor 32
Not sure 13

A plurality (46%) feel the next four years under a Trump administration will be negative (fair and poor combined), while two in five (41%) believe things will be positive. Women (50%) are more likely to feel negative about the next four years compared to men (42%). There was also increased negative sentiment among 18-24 year olds (70%), African Americans (74%), and Asians (80%).

Voters who are Nascar fans (55%), voters worse off than fours years ago (50%) and upper income voters--$150K+ annually (57%), current NRA members (76%) gun owners (54%), and veterans and people serving in the armed forces (54%) were most optimistic (excellent and good combined) about the next four years.

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