Saturday, June 24th, 2017

The Trump
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Trump Approval

Trump Approval

US Direction

US Direction

Post election poll results: Trump improves in key demographics, which Obama won handily in 2012

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Zogby Analytics conducted an online poll of 1,004 voters nationwide who voted in the November 8th election. The survey was conducted between the dates 11/9/16 - 11/10/16.

Below are highlights from the post election nationwide poll of voters.

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job as president?

Strongly approve 27%

Somewhat approve 24

Somewhat disapprove 16

Strongly disapprove 31

Not sure  2

President Obama's approval numbers are up from our last nationwide poll in August; since then Obama has increased his numbers from 48% approval (strongly and somewhat approve combined) to a slim majority of voters (51%) who approve of his job as president. Currently his disapproval rating (somewhat and strongly disapprove combined) is 47%, which is down from 50% in August. Of those who approve, 27% strongly approve while 24% somewhat approve of his job as president. Women (52%) approve of President Obama more than men (50%). His approval to disapproval ratio is better with younger voters (18-29 year olds--57% approval/40% disapproval) when compared to older voters 50-64 years old (45% approval/54% disapproval) and voters aged 65+ (39% approval/61% disapproval).

Among Hillary Clinton voters, Obama has a 90% approval rating versus a 12% approval rating among Trump voters. When we examine Obama's support among ethnicity of voters, there are differences. Obama has a 40% approval and a 57% disapproval rating among white voters while Obama enjoys a 60% approval rating among Hispanics, 94% approval among African Americans and 79% approval among Asians.

When it comes to the region of voters, the Central Great Lakes region disapproves of Obama the most--41% approval vs 55% disapproval for Obama's job as president. The approval/disapproval ratio is better for Obama in the South (53% approval vs. 46% disapproval), West (61% approval vs. 38% disapproval) and East regions (53% approval vs. 45% disapproval). 

One of the more interesting sub-groups we track is Walmart shoppers. Over the years their politics and make-up have shifted. Ten years ago weekly Walmart shoppers tended to slant conservative and Republican. That trend had been reversed during the Obama Presidency, and these consumers tended to be more liberal and supporters of Democrats. Trump has recently reversed this trend in 2016, with more Walmart shoppers voting for the Republican Nominee in the 2016 presidential election.  Among weekly Walmart shoppers, Obama's approval rating is 48%, while 47% of Walmart shoppers disapprove; it was 48% approve and 50% disapprove in our August nationwide poll. Voters who never shop at Walmart have a better approval ratio--67% approve vs. 32% disapprove of Obama's job as president, which is the same ratio it was in August. 

US Direction

Right Direction 27%

Wrong Track 61

Not sure 12

An overarching theme to the 2016 presidential election was the health of the U.S. economy. Although President Obama has had good approval ratings the last few years, voters have consistently expressed frustration about their personal finances. Nearly three in five voters believe the country is off on the wrong track compared with 27% who feel the US is going in the right direction. When we dig deeper into the demographics, we see more women (64%) think things are off on the wrong track versus men (58%) and conversely more men (35%) think things are going in the right direction compared to women (20%).

There is also a divide in US direction when it comes to the age of voters.  More young voters, aged 18-29 (31%) feel things are going in the right direction compared with only 19% of voters aged 65+ who feel the same way. The sentiment of wrong direction increases with age, as 18-29 year old voters (58%) are less likely than older voters aged 65+ (71%) to think things in the US are off on the wrong track.

When we look at voters and who they voted for in the 2016 presidential election, 39% of Clinton voters believe the country is headed in the right direction, while 46% believe the country is off on the wrong track. Among Trump supporters, 17% think the country is going in the right direction while more than three-quarters (77%) think things are off on the wrong track. The numbers are very similar among Democrats and Republicans but among Independents, 21% think US is on the right track, while nearly two-thirds (65%) think it's off on the wrong track.

The US direction numbers among income groups from <$25K annually (24% right direction /60% wrong direction) to voters who earn $150k+ annually (26% right direction /73% wrong direction) are pretty similar across the board.

Geography also exhibits differences in how voters feel about the direction of the US. Although, each region feels dismal about the direction of the US, voters in the Central Great Lakes region are more likely to believe things are off on the wrong track (73%) while 21% of voters there think things are on the right track. This is compared to voters in the East (34% right direction /49% wrong direction), South (29% right direction /58% wrong direction) and West regions (27% right direction /62% wrong direction). 

In the Congressional race in 2016, for which party's candidate did you vote?

Democrat 42%

Republican 39

Minor party or Independent candidate  4

A mix of Democratic and Republican candidates 11

A mix of major and minor party candidates  1

Not sure  3

In line with the overall popular vote for president, slightly more voters nationwide voted for Democrats for Congress closely followed by nearly two in five voters who voted for a Republican for Congress. The only other choice to receive double digits was voters who say they voted for a mix of Democrats and Republicans for Congress (11%).

There are differences when it comes to which age cohort voted for which party for Congress. As for age, interestingly younger voters are almost as likely to have supported a Democrat (34%) as they were a Republican (29%) for Congress. 18-29 year old voters are also more likely to support a mix of the two major parties (19%) than voters overall. The biggest gaps between Democrat and Republican candidates, was seen among voters aged 30-49 (+9% in favor of Dem. to Repub.) and voters aged 65+ who are more likely to vote for Republican Congressional candidates (+8% in favor of Repub. to Dem.).

Overall, very few voters supported minor party or Independent candidates. Independent (10%) and younger voters (12%) are two and half to three times more likely to vote for minor and Independent Congressional candidates than voters overall.

Economics, employment and where voters live also played a part in which party's Congressional candidate voters chose at the polls. For those  who lost a job recently, more than half (53%) voted for the Republican Congressional candidate compared to 30% who voted Democrat, while those who did not lose a job, a plurality voted Democrat at 43% compared to 38% Republican. 

Weekly Walmart shoppers supported Democrats (44%) for Congress slightly more than Republicans (43%). Those voters who never shop at Walmart are much more likely to vote for Congressional Democrats (56%) compared to Republicans (28%).

The numbers flip almost identically when we compare voters in urban, suburban and rural areas of the country.  Congressional Democrats won convincingly among urban voters with 49% compared to 32% for Republicans, while rural voters preferred Republican candidates for Congress 48% to 31% for Democrats. In the suburbs, Republican Congressional candidates were slightly more popular at 43% compared to 40% of Democrats. There were no significant differences among sub-groups when it came to support of minor/Independent Congressional candidates and a mix of the major party candidates. 

In the election for President of the United States, for whom did you vote?

Democrat Hillary Clinton 48%

Republican Donald Trump 47

Other/ Not sure  5

The overall popular vote was close between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, which is also reflected in the Zogby Analytics post election poll results. Clinton (48%) narrowly defeats Trump (47%) by just a few tenths of a percentage point, which ends up being rounded up to 1%. Trump was more popular among men (50%), older voters (both 50-64--50% and 65+--56%), Republicans (88%), Independents (52%), Moderates (48%), Conservatives (76%), voters in the Central Great Lakes (57%), Southern voters (50%) middle income voters--$50-75K annually (53%), upper income voters--$150K+ annually (63%), suburban voters (52%), married voters (56%), Catholic voters (52%), born again voters (64%), Protestants (56%), homeowners (55%), white voters (56%), weekly Walmart shoppers (52%), voters who voted on election day (52%) and voters are worse off than they were four years ago (66%). 

Hillary Clinton prevailed with women (49%), voters who voted in person before the election (52%) and those who voted by absentee ballot (53%), Democrats (91%), Liberal voters (86%), voters in the East (54%) and West (64%), 18-24 year olds (58%), 30-49 year olds (53%) African Americans (86%), lower income voters earning less than $25K annually (58%) and voters earning $25-35K annually (53%), urban voters (56%), single voters (61%), renters (62%), voters whose finances are better off than four years ago (60%), Jewish voters (53%), union members (50%), and creative job sector voters (51%). 

The race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was only separated by one point among those who have not lost their job recently, voters not afraid of losing a job and voters not working at a job that pays less than their previous jobs.

Compared to the 2012 presidential election, Trump was able to win because he consolidated votes among Republicans and narrowed the gap with Hillary Clinton among women voters in the rust belt states. Clinton won women voters 49%-45% in our poll.  This is in comparison to 2012 when Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney among women voters in our 2012 post election poll 54% to 40%. Trump also closed the gap among 18-29 year olds--Clinton won 45% to Trump's 44% among young voters in our poll. 

In our 2012 post election poll, Barrack Obama beat Mitt Romney 60%-30% among 18-29 year old voters. Two other important areas Trump improved upon from 2012 for Republicans was Independent voters; Trump won Independents 52%-36% against Hillary Clinton, while in 2012, Obama won Independents 46% to 41% against Mitt Romney. Trump also improved his numbers among Catholic voters by beating Clinton 52% to 44%, which Obama carried in 2012, 53%-42%. 

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