Saturday, November 17th, 2018

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Clinton beats Trump but Sanders does better among Women, Millennials and Independents when Facing Trump

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The following General Election Head to Head Matchup results are from a new nationwide Zogby Analytics' poll of 837 likely voters, conducted 6/2/16 - 6/5/16. The margin of sampling error is +/-3.5%.

Horserace Clinton vs. Trump, with Third party candidates

In our first poll question of the 2016 election asking the most likely November General Election matchup scenario, Clinton is only leading Trump by 6%, and almost 1 in 5 likely voters is not sure who they will vote for!

If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for President is Donald Trump; the Libertarian nominee is Gary Johnson and the Green party nominee is Jill Stein for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton 40%
Donald Trump 34
Gary Johnson 6
Jill Stein 2
Not sure 18

When two third party candidates, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are included in the poll question, Clinton is hurt the most. Trump's overall numbers do not change much but Clinton loses support among Millennials, women, and Independents with the inclusion of actual third party candidates. Overall, Clinton has a tighter race among women (36%-33%), 18-24 year olds (47%-7%),18-29 year olds (41%-19%), and Independents (30%-27%). Clinton also leads among men (45%-36%) and voters age 65+ (48%-34%). Although Clinton leads Trump in these key demographics, many more respondents among women (23%), 18-24 year olds (32%), 18-29 year olds (25%) and Independents (28%) say they are not sure. This could be a problem come November.

Head to Head, Clinton still leads Trump, while many likely voters still unsure

If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for President is Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton 46%
Donald Trump 38
Not sure 16

No big changes here. Clinton wins convincingly against Trump, especially among men (47%-39%), women (44%-38%), 18-29 year olds (59%-22%), 30-49 year olds (44%-39%), voters age 65+ (50%-38%), Independents (38%-34%), Hispanics (67%-22%), African Americans (81%-5%), voters whose household income is less than $25k (55%-26%) voters whose household income is between $25k-$35k (52%-27%), Catholics (48%-39%), and those who live in small and large cities (43%-40% and 62%-22% respectively).

Trumps beats Clinton among stay at home parents (45%-41%), 50-64 year olds (48%-37%), 35-54 year olds (43%-40%), white voters (47%-38%), Protestants (50%-34%), Born again Christians (55%-29%), voters who live in the suburbs (43%-41%), voters who live in rural areas (53%-32%), voters who are married (47%-39%), voters who own a home (46%-39%), weekly Walmart shoppers (47%-41%), NASCAR fans (51%-35%), and voters whose household income is 75k-100k (49%-39%).

In our last poll, Clinton lead Trump among weekly Walmart shoppers (53%-36%) and NASCAR fans (48%-39%).

Horserace with Generic 'Other'

If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for President is Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton 40%
Donald Trump 36
Other candidate 14
Not going to vote 2
Not sure 9

When we offer the 'other candidate' and 'not going to vote' options to respondents, the race tightens a little more between Clinton (40%) and Trump (36%), with a still significant amount of likely voters (14%) saying they will vote for the 'other candidate' and 9% who are not sure. Clinton is hurt the most in this scenario, especially among her key groups such as women, which is now tied with Trump 35%-35%, with 17% saying they will vote for another candidate, and Clinton and Trump are also tied at 30% each among Independents, with almost a quarter saying they will vote for another candidate.

Among Millennial voters, Clinton's lead shrinks to 39%-20%, with 26% saying they will now vote for an 'other' candidate. Trump wins convincingly among likely voters whose total household income is from $50k-$150k and likely voters who live in the South region 46%-37%. Clinton and Trump are now tied at 34% in the Central/Great Lakes region; 15% say they will vote for an 'other' candidate. Clinton continues to receive support from voters who earn more than $150k annually (44%-38%); in our last poll Clinton lead Trump 44%-38%.

Sanders vs. Trump, along with generic 'other candidate'

If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Bernie Sanders and the Republican nominee for President is Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Bernie Sanders 49%
Donald Trump 36
Other candidate 5
Not going to vote 2
Not sure 9

Sanders has made the argument he is a stronger candidate than Clinton and can ensure the Democrats a victory in the November general election. He is the only candidate closest to the 50% threshold right now. His numbers are climbing upward since our last poll. Sanders also narrows the gap in some of Trump's key groups, which are not that many to begin with in this question. Most importantly Sanders beats Trump among Independents 47%-30% and wins convincingly among women 49%-35%, Millennials 70%-17%, Hispanics 67%-23% and Catholics 46%-37%. The other big factor is less people across the board are turned off and say they will vote for someone else, which is more of a key factor in the Clinton horserace question.

Horserace with Sanders and Third party candidates

If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Bernie Sanders and the Republican nominee for President is Donald Trump; the Libertarian nominee is Gary Johnson and the Green party nominee is Jill Stein for whom would you vote?

Bernie Sanders 44%
Donald Trump 35
Gary Johnson 4
Jill Stein 1
Not sure 16

Even with the introduction of third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Sanders still convincingly beats and Donald Trump and wins among key groups such as Independents, Millennials, women, minorities, and lower to middle income voters. The presence of Gary Johnson takes away more support from Sanders as opposed to Trump.

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