Saturday, October 20th, 2018

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Ohio likely voters Choose Clinton and Sanders over Trump

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In a new Zogby Analytics online survey of 679 Ohio likely voters, we tested general election matchups for the 2016 Presidential election. The poll was conducted 5/18/16 - 5/22/16 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

  • Clinton has a 6 point lead over Trump, 45% to 39%, 16% are undecided.

Hillary Clinton does better than Donald Trump among women (46% to 35%), African Americans (80% to 10%), Hispanics (51% to 21%), voters who live in large (59% to 24%) and small cities (50% to 35%). Despite the often-discussed possibility that Trump could win over unions, Clinton has a healthy lead among union members (57% to 34%).

83% of Ohio Democrats support Hillary Clinton while 82% of Ohio Republicans support Trump. Clinton and Trump are statistically tied among Ohio independents, 37% to 35%. Clinton's is strongest in Cleveland (50% to 33%) while Trump is strongest in the Columbus region (48% to 43%).

  • Introduction of a generic third candidate doesn't change the dynamics of the race.

When likely Ohio voters are offered an option 'other', 42% chose Hillary Clinton, 35% chose Donald Trump, 12% chose other, 3% chose 'not going to vote and 8% were not sure. 'Other' candidate was chosen by 8% of Ohio Democrats, 12% of Ohio Republicans and 17% of Ohio Independents. In this scenario, Clinton was the choice of 79% of Ohio Democrats, while Trump was the choice of 73% of Ohio Republicans.

  • Trump performs slightly worse against Sanders than against Clinton

When offered a choice between Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and a generic independent candidate, 46% of Ohio likely voters chose Bernie Sanders, 35% chose Donald Trump, 7% chose 'other', 4% said they were not going to vote, and 8% were not sure. Bernie Sanders was chosen by 74% of Ohio Democrats, and Trump was chosen by 77% of Ohio Republicans. However, Trump's performance among independents is worse in a match-up against Sanders (47% to 26%) when compared to Clinton (32% to 30%).

  • Possible Libertarian and Green Party nominees, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, equally hurt Trump and Clinton

When given a choice between Clinton, Trump, Johnson and Stein, 38% of likely Ohio voters chose Clinton, 33% chose Trump, 6% chose Johnson and 3% chose Stein. When provided with these options, Clinton gets support of 77% Democrats, while Trump is the choice of 76% of Republicans. However, both run weaker against independents than they do against a generic candidate. This is not due to the popularity of Johnson and Stein, rather more independents are unsure about their choice when given specific options.

  • Gary Johnson and Jill Stein leave Sander's lead over Trump essentially unchanged.

When given a choice between Sanders, Trump, Johnson and Stein, 43% of likely Ohio voters chose Sanders, 32% chose Trump, 4% chose Johnson and 2% chose Stein. In this scenario, Sanders gets support of 72% Democrats, while Trump is the choice of 73% Republicans. Similar to the Clinton dynamic, both Sanders and Trump lose some independents not to Johnson and Stein but to 'unsure' category.

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