Wednesday, September 20th, 2017

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Zogby Analytics News Wire - General Election Head to Head Matchups

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In a new Zogby Analytics online survey of 834 US likely voters, we tested a number of topics related to the 2016 Presidential election. The bullets below focus on the general election match-ups between Hillary Clinton and the Republican candidates, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich. The poll was conducted 4/19/16 - 4/20/16 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

  • Clinton vs. Trump - Clinton's lead narrows

If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for President is Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton      47%
Donald Trump     40
Not sure            14

Takeaways: Since our last poll Clinton's lead has decreased slightly and her lead is not commanding in the sense that she does not receive a majority of the voters surveyed. As for sub-groups, Hillary Clinton does better than Donald Trump among the typical Democratic stalwarts, which are women (47% to 37%), 18-64 year olds (she has pluralities from 48% to 51% in each age group), African Americans (84% to 5%), Hispanics (56% to 25%), creative class workers (56% to 33%), voters in the east (52% to 36%) and west regions (52% to 31%) and single voters (55% to 27%). Clinton also bests Trump among weekly Wal-Mart shoppers (53% to 36%) and NASCAR Fans (48% to 39%), which in the early 2,000's were more inclined to support Republican candidates such as George W. Bush.

Donald Trump is losing to Hillary Clinton but he can gain ground among voters who are part of his emerging coalition. Trump beats Clinton among Independents (42%-34%), voters age 65+ (55%-33%), white voters (48% to 39%), Protestants (48% to 38%), Born Agains (54% to 32%), voters in the south (44% 42%) and central/great lakes regions (44% to 42%), and those who earn $35,000-$75,000 annually (he gets pluralities of 45% and 47% in each income group) and people who are married (46% to 40%).

If you had to vote today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who are you leaning toward voting for - Clinton or Trump?*The following question was asked of the 14% of respondents that said "not sure" when asked who they would vote for.

Hillary Clinton     6%
Donald Trump   10
Not sure           84

  • Clinton vs. Cruz

If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for President is Ted Cruz, for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton     46%
Ted Cruz           37
Not sure           17

Takeaways: Clinton beats Cruz by winning her Democratic coalition-creative class workers (54%-36%), women (44%-38%) African Americans (74%-15%), Hispanics (53-27%), 18-24 year olds (43%-36%) weekly WalMart shoppers (49% to 36%) and NASCAR fans (50% to 32%). Interestingly, both Candidates receive 40% among 18-29 year olds, 21% of which are not sure. Cruz does better than Clinton among traditional Republican voters such as older voters (46% to 36%), white voters (43% to 40%), middle income earners $35,000-$75,000 (Cruz receives pluralities of 41% and 42% in each group) and wins married voters 44% to 41%. Cruz does beat Clinton among independent voters 39% to 36%.

If you had to vote today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz, who are you leaning toward voting for - Clinton or Cruz?*The following question was asked of the 17% of respondents that said "not sure" when asked who they would vote for.

Hillary Clinton     5%
Ted Cruz          12
Not sure           83

  • Clinton vs. Kasich

If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for President is John Kasich, for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton     44%
John Kasich       41
Not sure           15

Takeaways: John Kasich is not polling better than Hillary Clinton anymore but still does the best against Clinton compared with his Republican counterparts. Clinton ekes out Kasich 44% to 41% and 15% are not sure. Clinton wins among women (43% to 40%), African American (83% to 8%), Hispanics (58% to 26%) and younger voters 18-24 year olds (55% to 24%). Kasich is able to keep things close by narrowing the lead among women and winning big among older voters 65+ (62% to 27%), Independents (44% to 33%), middle income earners-those earn $35,000-$75,000 annually (Kasich receives pluralities of 49% and 50% in each income group). He also tightens the race among those who work and identify as creative class voters (50% to 40% and 45% to 43% in Clinton's favor) and wins investor class voters 50% to 44%.

If you had to vote today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John Kasich, who are you leaning toward voting for - Clinton or Kasich? *The following question was asked of the 15% of respondents that said "not sure" when asked who they would vote for.

Hillary Clinton     8%
John Kasich       7
Not sure          86

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