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Zogby Analytics News Wire - April 25, 2016

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In a new Zogby Analytics online survey of 834 US likely voters, we tested a number of topics related to the 2016 Presidential election. The bullets below focus on questions we surveyed with regard to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

  • Republican National Horse Race

Nothing much has changed since our last survey, though Trump has consolidated his lead further. We asked 286 likely Republican voters, If your state's Republican Primary or caucus were held today, for whom would you vote? More than half (53%) say Donald Trump, a quarter (25%) will vote for Ted Cruz, while only 14% will vote for John Kasich.

  • Third Party Run

Regarding a potential third party candidacy we asked all respondents the following, If the Republican National Convention in Cleveland produces another candidate as the nominee, besides Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, would you support a third party candidate for president?

Overall, of the 834 likely voters in the survey: 28% said they would support a third party candidate for president, more than a third (35%) said they would not support a third party candidate for president , and a plurality (38%) are not sure about their support for a third party candidate for president. Among Republicans, which would be a crucial factor whether a third party campaign run by Trump would be viable, Republicans are emphatic in their displeasure of a third party candidate: 22% say yes, 39% say no, and 39% are not sure.

Of the 28% who said they would vote for a third party candidate, a third will vote for Trump as a third party candidate, while a resounding 58% will not vote for Trump and 10% are not sure.

Among the voters of this group who are Republican, slightly more than half (51%) say yes to voting for Trump, 43% say no and 5% are not sure. Based on these numbers, especially among Republicans, a third party run by Trump does not look to be very successful.

  • Republican Convention

We also tested another question among Republicans, If Donald Trump goes to the Republican convention with more delegates than any other candidate but does not have a majority, do you support or oppose party leaders who will try to block him from the nomination?:

A strong plurality (46%) said they would strongly oppose party leaders who will try to block Trump from the nomination, and another 10% would somewhat oppose party leaders. One fifth (21%) would strongly support trying to block Trump, 13% would somewhat support blocking him, while 11% are not sure. Republicans seem to lean more toward Donald Trump being the nominee, but will not support him in a bid for a third party candidacy.

  • Qualities

For the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree: - Donald Trump is the right leader to make critical decisions in an increasingly destabilized world

Strongly agree     19%
Somewhat agree     18
Somewhat disagree     13
Strongly disagree     44
Not sure      6

For the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree: - Donald Trump is a trustworthy person

Strongly agree     15%
Somewhat agree     24
Somewhat disagree     16
Strongly disagree     40
Not sure     5

Majorities of the 834 likely voters surveyed (57% and 56% respectively) disagree that Donald Trump is the right leader to make critical decisions in an increasingly destabilized world and that he is a trustworthy person.

  • Democratic National Horse Race

With a resounding win in the recent New York Primary for Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders appears to be all but finished. He may remain around to annoy Clinton but it's pretty clear she is in the driver's seat and will cruise into the convention as the Democratic nominee. In our poll, we asked respondents, If your state's Democratic Primary or caucus for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

Nearly half will vote for Clinton (49%); 39% will vote for Sanders, and 11% are not sure. These are not stellar numbers for Clinton who also boasts a 55% unfavorable rating in this poll.

  • Qualities

For the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree: - Hillary Clinton is the right leader to make critical decisions in an increasingly destabilized world

Strongly agree     18%
Somewhat agree     21
Somewhat disagree     12
Strongly disagree     43
Not sure     5

For the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree: - Hillary Clinton is a trustworthy person

Strongly agree     16%
Somewhat agree     20
Somewhat disagree     15
Strongly disagree     44
Not sure     5

Solid majorities of the 834 likely voters surveyed (55% and 59% respectively) disagree that Hillary Clinton is the right leader to make critical decisions in an increasingly destabilized world and that she is a trustworthy person. Interestingly, slightly more people trust Donald Trump (39%) than Hillary Clinton (36%).

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