Zogby Analytics: Clinton 45%-Trump 45%
- Category: News
- Published: Monday, 25 January 2016 14:17
- Written by Zogby
- Hits: 4485
This headline is actually correct to the tenth of a percent. In the new Zogby Analytics Poll of 843 likely voters nationwide, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied 45.0% to 45.0%. Ten percent are undecided. The poll, conducted online January 19-20, has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points.
The new poll shows a 16 point gender gap with Mr. Trump leading among men 50%-42% and Mrs. Clinton ahead among women 48%-40-%. Mrs. Clinton has wide support among 18-29 year olds (57%-25%) and holds a seven point lead among 30-49 year olds (49%-42%), but Mr. Trump is ahead among 50-64 year olds (50%-44%) and has a two to one edge among voters over 65 (61%-30%).
While Mrs. Clinton is where she needs to be with fellow Democrats (82%-13%), Mr. Trump does equally well with fellow Republicans (81% to 8%). As for now, Mr. Trump has a 9 point edge with independents (46%-37%). Both liberals (88%-8%) and moderates (51%-38%) support Mrs. Clinton, however - leading conservatives arguing otherwise - conservative voters are backing Mr. Trump (73%-18%).
Mrs. Clinton relies on both Hispanic voters (58%-33%) and African American voters (77%-12%) to offset her deficit with white voters (Mr. Trump leads 53%-36%). The result showing that 11% of African American voters are undecided is not good news for Mrs. Clinton. If they do not know her and like her now, they may not even show up to vote at all. In a race potentially this close, she will need them.
Mr. Trump is ahead among Catholics - a group that Democrats have won every election since 1992. He also draws an impressive 66% support among evangelicals (to Mrs. Clinton's 25%). He also leads among NASCAR Fans (48%-42%), Investor Class voters (49%-44%), and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (50%-42%) - a group President Obama won twice. He even is drawing 37% of union households (to Mrs. Clinton's 56%).
In matchups against other GOP opponents, Mrs. Clinton leads all the rest: 44%-39% against Jeb Bush; 44%-40% vs, Ben Carson; 45%-37% vs. Carly Fiorina; 45%-39% vs Marco Rubio; 44%-38% vs. John Kasich; and 44%-40% vs. Chris Christie.
Bernie Sanders finds himself in the same situation against Mr. Trump - 45.5% Sanders, 44.5% Trump, with 9% undecided. Mr. Sanders, however, has larger leads than Mrs. Clinton over the other GOP contenders - 10 points (46%-36%) over Mr. Bush; 8 points vs. Dr. Carson (44%-35%); 14 points over Mrs. Fiorina (47%-33%); 7 points over Mr. Rubio (44%-37%); 14 points over Mr. Kasich (46%-32%); and 7 points over Mr. Christie (44%-37%).