Saturday, October 20th, 2018

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Hillary Dominates The Democratic Field, With Biden In Or Out

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A brand new Zogby Analytics Poll of 515 likely Democratic primary/caucus voters nationwide, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.3 percentage points, shows that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds a huge lead over all of her rivals for the nomination. The new poll, conducted online September 18 and 19, has Mrs. Clinton leading Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 52% to 24%, with former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley at 3%, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb with 2%, and 19% either undecided or choosing another candidate.

Mrs. Clinton leads by wide margins among men (46% to 29%) and women (58% to 20%), Democrats (60% to 21%), liberals (63% to 29%), moderates (48% to 26%), conservatives (46% to 17%), Hispanics (52% to 24%) and African Americans (65% to 20%). She and Mr. Sanders are close only among independents with Mrs. Clinton at 33% to Mr. Sanders’ 31% and 31% undecided.

When Vice President Joe Biden, who has not indicated his intentions yet, is added in, the needle moves but Mrs. Clinton still remains heavily in the lead with 44% to Mr. Biden’s and Mr. Sander’s 18% each, Mr. O’Malley’s 4% and Mr. Webb’s 3%. The race is closer among men (36% for Mrs. Clinton to Mr. Biden’s 22% and Mr. Sanders’ 21%) than women (50% to 15% Sanders and 14% Biden). Mr. Sanders does best among the youngest voters (37% for Clinton to his 26% and Biden’s 12%) while Mr. Biden polls his best among voters over 50 year of age (23% to Mrs. Clinton’s 42% among 50-64 year olds, and 43% to 24% among those over 65).

While Mrs. Clinton wallops the other candidates among Democrats ((51% to 17% for Mr. Biden and 16% for Mr. Sanders), the race is very tight among independents with Mr. Sanders actually leading the way with 27% to Mrs. Clinton’s 24% and Mr. Biden’s 16%.

Should the vice president announce his candidacy he will likely receive a bounce in the polls and could carve out a niche for himself that complicates life for both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders. But for now, numbers like these at this stage for the frontrunner might just give Mr. Biden pause.

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