Real Estate mogul Donald Trump continues his roll by leading 3 to 1 among likely GOP primary and caucus voters nationwide. The new poll of 250 Republican voters aged 18-34 year olds was taken online, with a margin of sampling error of +/-6.3 percentage points shows Mr. Trump at 25% support, followed distantly by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 9%, famous neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson and Texas Senator Ted Cruz tied at 8%, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker 7%, Florida Senator Marco Rubio 5%, and 18% undecided. No other candidate receives more than 3% support.
Mr. Trump leads Mr. Bush 28% to 13% among young men, with Mr. Cruz at 9%, Mr. Walker at 8%, Mr. Rubio 7%, and Dr. Carson at 6%, while among young women Mr. Trump is getting 22% to Dr. Carson's 11%, Mr. Cruz 8%, and Mr. Walker tied with Kentucky Senator Rand Paul with 6% each. While only 11% of men in this age cohort are undecided, 25% of women are.
Among those who are 18-24, Mr. Trump's lead is only 4 points - 17% to 13% -- over Dr. Carson, with Mr. Cruz at 8%. -- Among those Republicans 25-34 years of age, Mr. Trump receives 28% to Mr. Bush's 9%. Those young voters who identify themselves as Republican - as opposed to independent - favor Mr. Trump with 33% over Mr. Bush, Dr. Carson, and Mr. Walker at 8% each.
This is a relatively small sample but it bears some analysis. First, Donald Trump has had a very good summer and has captured an enormous amount of traditional, new, and social media. It is no surprise that he leads by name recognition and by expressing both outrage and an outrageous behavior. Secondly, young people generally do not pay attention to presidential politics this early so it is not surprising that he has filled in a gap in that respect as well.
Millennials prefer problem-solvers and cutting to the chase. And like all Americans they do not hate billionaires. But young people want solutions and consensus, too. This is a group that favors teamwork over individual braggadocio, achievement over bombast, and getting a job done without yelling. This all suggests that Mr. Trump will also fade into the woodwork - at least among younger voters. He has to show he can pick off at least some voter groups to neutralize the demographic advantage that Democrats carry going into the election cycle. Doesn't he?
But the real question is whether or not any of the other candidates can generate any of the excitement and interest in the skills Millennials favor in a President of the United States.