Wednesday, November 14th, 2018

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Hillary Now Polling Only 42% Against GOP Rivals

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A brand new Zogby Analytics nationwide poll of 1,341 likely voters shows former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton holding leads over her major Republican opponents. The poll, conducted June 23-25, shows Mrs. Clinton’s lead dropping from 14-15 points against each of her potential challengers down to 9 points.

For example, her lead over former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has dropped from 47% to 33% just two weeks ago to 42% to 33% in the new Zogby Poll. The Clinton-Bush matchup is pretty revealing. Her support has dropped among the youngest voters dropping from 48% to 45%, among 30-49 year olds 55% to 51%, liberals 84% to 80%, independents 33% to 31%, and voters in union households 58% to 51%, Hispanics from 64% to 55%. It is not the Mr. Bush has made any gains, he has not. He was polling 33% two weeks again and still is. What is striking in these new numbers are the increases among those voters who say they prefer “someone else” or are not sure. That is generally a euphemism for saying they probably will not vote at all if the choices are Clinton and Bush.

There is certainly no comfort here for Mr. Bush, but this should be of great concern to the Democrats who need a big turnout not only to win the White House but also to cut the GOP leads in both houses of Congress. They need young people to turn out in big numbers. This is not likely to happen if Mrs. Clinton continues to be polling in the low forties and one in four 18-24 year olds are considering voting for someone else – or 11% of African Americans.

These numbers suggest a very low voter turnout and, at least for now, dampened enthusiasm for the frontrunners in either party. Mrs. Clinton’s leads have also shrunk against Kentucky Senator Rand Paul – 44% to 33%, down from 46% to 35%, — and against Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin (43% to 33%, down from 47% to 32%). Two weeks ago she led Florida Senator Marco Rubio 48% to 32% and that is now down to 43% to 32%.

A lead is a lead but for Mrs. Clinton there is little to cheer about in this poll. In just two weeks, her campaign has managed to bleed support. And there is more to consider. Every pollster creates a “turnout model”, what the electorate should look like on election day. Thus far, I have continued to use the 2012 model as the turnout for 2016 – numbers that heavily favor Mrs. Clinton. Thus, the Democrats have more respondents 38% to 32%, and the sample includes 27% self-identified liberals, 13% African American, 10% Hispanics, and 29% who are under the age of 35. With so many of these groups now saying they are either “undecided” or will vote for “someone else”, the actual turnout will not reflect that of 2012.

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